US embassy cable - 03ZAGREB2490

C O N F I D E N T I A L  ZAGREB 002490 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/SCE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/24/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, HR, Political Parties/Elections, Minorities 
SUBJECT: ETHNIC SERBS VOTE FOR MODERATES 
 
REF: A. ZAGREB 2463 
 
     B. ZAGREB 2365 
 
Classified By: POLOff Mitch benedict for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d) 
 
Summary 
-------- 
 
1. (U) With the official vote count still days away, moderate 
Serbs from the Independent Democratic Serbian Party (SDSS) 
are almost certain to fill the three designated ethnic Serb 
seats in the next Parliament.  Milan Djukic, the 
confrontational former representative of ethnic Serbs in 
Parliament, lost narrowly to a relatively unknown newcomer on 
the national scene, and will not return to Parliament. 
Ethnic Serbs appear to have decided that extremist politics 
have not been successful, and the SDSS will face high 
expectations that they can solve intractable and long-term 
problems faced by the Serbian community.  End Summary. 
 
A Clean Sweep by the SDSS 
------------------------- 
 
2. (U) One of the surprises to come out of the November 23 
Parliamentary elections is that the Independent Democratic 
Serbian Party (SDSS) appears to have captured all three of 
the guaranteed seats for the Serbian minority in the next 
parliament.  With results in from all but six of 6,504 
polling stations (99.9 percent), the SDSS's candidates placed 
first, second, and third on the minority list.  Vojislav 
Stanimirovic, the party President, was first with 24,361 
votes (22.16 percent) and Milorad Pupovac, vice president of 
SDSS, came in second with 23,541 votes (21.41 percent).  The 
biggest upset of all was Ratko Gajica, the SDSS's third 
candidate and a relative unknown outside of Knin, who beat 
Milan Djukic, President of the Serbian National Party, by 
approximately 700 votes.  In the last Parliamentary election 
in January 2000, Djukic beat Pupovac by 3,000 votes and was 
the minority Serbian representative in the 2000-2003 
parliament, which had only one guaranteed minority seat 
reserved for Serbs. 
 
A Political Newcomer 
-------------------- 
 
3. (U) Gajica, whose birthday was election day, started the 
campaign as a relative unknown outside of Knin.  A lawyer by 
training, he is an SDSS representative in the Sibenik-Knin 
County Assembly, and the President of the Sibenik-Knin 
Serbian National Minority Council.  His prominence among 
Serbs in the Knin region may partly be due to the fact he 
stayed in Knin during and after Croatian forces recaptured 
the town in Operation "Storm" in 1995.  He maintained a 
private law practice, and has consistently provided pro bono 
legal assistance to ethnic Serbs.  Though never mentioned by 
name directly, in campaign appearances Gajica contrasted his 
calm and reasoned style, and ability to work successfully 
within the system, with that of Djukic.  Stanimirovic and 
Pupovac both worked to provide Gajica with maximum exposure 
among the electorate.  The three candidates appeared together 
at almost all campaign functions across Croatia, and Gajica 
was featured in press releases and campaign propaganda 
distributed in Serbia and Montenegro. 
 
Djukic Ousted 
------------- 
 
4. (C) Djukic, on the other hand, appears to have antagonized 
just about everyone.  An OSCE observer termed his performance 
on the campaign trail "atrocious."  He campaigned almost 
exclusively on his home turf of Donji Lapac and Donji Srb. 
However, his rallies were poorly attended -- at times only a 
handful of people turned out.  Bombastic and exclusionary, 
Djukic's style is to make an extreme statement that will draw 
a reaction from a high-level Government official, often 
ensuring prominent press coverage.  Few if any legislative 
accomplishments could be credited to Djukic; he even voted 
against the dual vote for ethnic minorities (Ref B), a 
position seemingly at odds with a large majority of ethnic 
Serbs.  Drazen Djakula, the President of the non-partisan 
Serb Democratic Forum (SDF), told us after the election that 
Djukic's ouster from parliament indicates minorities 
recognize that extremist positions are not productive in 
terms of advancing minority interests.  Djukic might get 
headlines, but ethnic Serbs appear to agree that he did not 
deserve to get their vote. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
5. (C) The SDSS will enter Parliament with a strong mandate 
from ethnic Serbs, and they are going to be under tremendous 
pressure to produce.  Time is running out (hostilities ended 
eight years ago, and Eastern Slavonia was reincorporated into 
Croatia six years ago), and expectations are going to be high 
for the SDSS to achieve concrete results on immediate issues, 
such as property and tenancy/occupancy rights, and on 
long-term and more systemic problems, such as employment and 
job creation.  The SDSS was elected both on name recognition 
-- Stanimirovic due to his role with Erdut processes in 
Eastern Slavonia, Pupovac as a former Member of Parliament 
(1995-1999) and Zagreb-based activist, and Gajica in Knin -- 
as well as for successfully conveying the message that they 
can work within parliament to produce meaningful results. 
The day after elections they reached out to the other five 
minority representatives, and they plan to meet soon to 
discuss what role they can play in promoting their issues in 
the next government's mandate. 
FRANK 
 
 
NNNN