US embassy cable - 03FRANKFURT9706

UNCLAS FRANKFURT 009706 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, GM, PINR 
SUBJECT: LAFONTAINE STEPS ASIDE IN SAARLAND CAMPAIGN 
 
 
1.  (SBU) SUMMARY:  The Saarland Social Democratic Party 
(SPD) selected chairman Heiko Maas to challenge Christian 
Democratic Union (CDU) Minister-President (M-P) Peter 
Mueller in the September 2004 state elections.  Maas' 
nomination to challenge the popular Mueller ended long 
speculation that the party would choose Oskar Lafontaine 
(former Saarland M-P and later federal Finance Minister). 
According to press reports, the national SPD leadership 
backed Maas even though polls favored Lafontaine (overall, 
the SPD trails the CDU in Saarland by 21 points). 
Lafontaine, an outspoken voice of the SPD's left wing, has 
a long history of publicly challenging Chancellor Schroeder 
on a number of issues (including economic reforms), and the 
chancellor was allegedly wary that Lafontaine could have 
used the nomination to widen his own power base.  Observers 
expect the SPD to gain ground in Saarland by next 
September.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (U) Following a lengthy internal debate, the Saarland 
SPD recently chose Heiko Maas to run against the popular 
Mueller in the upcoming elections.  According to media 
reports, the party chose Maas under pressure from 
Schroeder, who was reluctant to run the risk that 
Lafontaine would use the nomination to seek to re-build his 
power base in the national SPD Lafontaine enjoys strong 
name recognition (in contrast to the young Maas, a relative 
unknown) and remains a popular figure in Saarland and among 
left-wing activists. 
 
3.  (SBU) Maas denied reports that Schroeder pressured him 
to run, and SPD contacts insist that Lafontaine never 
disputed Maas' right (as SPD chief for Saarland) to have 
first right of refusal at being the standard bearer. 
Although Lafontaine was and remains a national figure, Maas 
is clearly the "establishment" candidate with the solid 
support of the party apparatus in Saarland.  Maas' staff 
predict that Lafontaine will set aside his own political 
ambitions and follow the party line, including campaigning 
for Maas and the SPD. 
 
4.  (SBU) COMMENT: Party insiders say Maas likely will 
pursue a strategy similar to Schroeder's 1998 national 
campaign, when Lafontaine secured left-wing votes through 
his support of the SPD ticket while Schroeder attracted the 
centrist element.  The SPD needs to energize its rank-and- 
file if it is to have any hope to break the CDU's absolute 
majority in Saarland, and the key to success is high voter 
turnout.  If, as in recent elections, SPD voters turn out 
in low numbers, the SPD will lose.  A good contact, Maas 
has organizational and political savvy that belies his 
young age (33), and our many meetings suggest he could be a 
pro-American force along the lines of Kurt Beck (the SPD 
Minister-President of neighboring Rheinland-Pfalz). 
 
5.  (SBU) The SPD is at a low ebb nationally and has lost 
11 mayoral elections in Saarland since Mueller assumed 
power in 1999.  Election observers expect the SPD to gain 
ground in Saarland, where the political mainstream lies to 
the left of center.  With centrist Maas in front and 
vigorous support from Lafontaine -- together with expected 
gains by the Greens and a weak showing by the FDP (Free 
Democrats), who may not cross the five percent threshold -- 
the SPD/Greens have an outside chance to unseat the CDU in 
the September 2004 Landtag elections.  END COMMENT. 
 
BODDE