US embassy cable - 03YEREVAN2806

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 002806 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/24/13 
TAGS: PREL, AM, GG 
SUBJECT: ARMENIA: ONLY CONCERN IS GEORGIA'S STABILITY 
 
 
1. (U) Classified by Ambassador John Ordway. Reasons: 
1.5 (B)&(D). 
 
2. (C) Summary.  Following the resignation of Georgian 
President Shevardnadze, the Armenian leadership and 
government officials have maintained an official line 
that the stability of their neighbor is Armenia's 
paramount concern.  Government officials have 
indicated that they are prepared to work with whomever 
emerges as the political leader of Georgia. The GOAM 
worries that continued post-election turmoil and a 
prolonged political crisis in Georgia could have a 
substantial negative impact on Armenia's economy.  End 
summary. 
 
3. (SBU) In public statements throughout the day, the 
Armenian leadership has focused on the urgent need to 
restore order and stability in Georgia following the 
resignation of President Shevardnadze.  In a statement 
released November 24, President Kocharian called for 
the "the quick establishment of order and stability in 
Georgia," and stated he looked forward to developing a 
"good personal relationship" with the new leaders of 
the country.  According to wire reports, National 
Assembly Speaker Artur Baghdasarian spoke by telephone 
with Georgia's Interim President Nino Burjanadze and 
expressed hope that law and order would soon be 
established in Georgia.  Foreign Minister Vardan 
Oskanian held a press conference in which he focused 
on the need to maintain stability throughout the 
region. 
 
4. (SBU) The Ministry of Foreign Affairs Head of the 
Georgia Desk, Ara Baldayan, informed us that Armenia 
was only interested in the quick imposition of order 
in Georgia and that the GOAM was prepared to work with 
whomever ultimately assumed the leadership of the 
country.  Baldayan declined to respond to questions 
regarding what contacts have been made between the 
GOAM and the new Georgian leadership, except to say 
that the GOAM will remain in contact with the 
"legitimate authorities." 
 
5. (C) Deputy Foreign Minister Tatul Margarian 
stressed the importance of Georgia's stability to 
Armenia during the Strategic Dialogue discussions held 
November 20, before Shevardnadze's resignation. 
Margarian commented that a continued deterioration of 
the situation in Georgia could only adversely affect 
Armenia's economic growth and consequently the GOAM 
was currently more interested in "stability in Georgia 
than within our own borders."  Margarian said that the 
GOAM would work with whomever emerged in power in 
Tblisi, and that "perhaps it is time for change in 
Georgia."  Margarian held out hope for an "elite 
resolution," which would preferably limit the power of 
Ajarian leader Aslan Abashidze. 
 
6.  (SBU) There has been no significant interruption 
in Armenia's vital trade links through Georgia. 
According to the Chief Border Guard at the Bagratashen 
border with Georgia, the primary entry point for all 
goods coming to Armenia, freight traffic between the 
two countries is keeping to schedule.  After a brief 
interruption in shipments over the weekend, both 
trucks and trains have resumed their normal schedules. 
Reports from private exporting and importing companies 
confirm that deliveries are leaving and arriving on 
time. 
 
7. (C) Comment.  The stability of Georgia is indeed of 
prime importance to the GOAM.  Official government 
figures indicate that 80 percent of all Armenian trade 
transited through Georgia in 2002, and the Georgian 
ports of Poti and Batumi provide Armenia's sole access 
to European markets.  Georgia also provides the land 
routes connecting Armenia with Russia, its largest 
trading partner.  The GOAM fears any further 
destabilization of Georgia, whether through a 
breakdown in central government authority or efforts 
by regional separatists to take advantage of the 
ongoing political crisis.  The cautious public tone 
taken by the GOAM underscores the government's desire 
not to contribute in any way to the exacerbation of 
tensions in Georgia particularly given substantial 
adverse effects on Armenia.  While the public appears 
to share this concern, there is already a lot of 
private discussion of the potential impact on 
Armenia's own domestic political life.  While Armenia 
is likely to remain stable and calm, the longer-term 
impact could be significant-- and will certainly be a 
major factor in the thinking of both President 
Kocharian and opposition leaders as they continue to 
jockey for political advantage. End comment. 
 
ORDWAY