US embassy cable - 03ZAGREB2478

C O N F I D E N T I A L  ZAGREB 002478 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SCE (KABUMOTO) 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/24/2008 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, HR, Political Parties/Elections 
SUBJECT: ELECTIONS: SANADER'S HDZ WINS BIG, BUT WILL HAVE 
WEAK COALITION IN NEW SABOR 
 
Classified By: Poloff A.F.Godfrey for reasons 1.5 (b,d) 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
1.  (SBU) The Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) founded by 
former President Franjo Tudjman was a big winner in Croatia's 
November 23 parliamentary election, but will still have to 
form a coalition in order to seat a government.  According to 
unofficial results, the HDZ won 65 of 76 seats needed for a 
majority.  But its likely coalition partners performed so 
poorly that HDZ President Ivo Sanader's government may have a 
parliamentary majority of only a handful of seats. 
 
2.  (U) Voter turnout was just over 68 percent, as expected. 
OSCE and local NGO monitors concluded that the poll was 
conducted in a professional and transparent manner with no 
incidents which would affect the outcome.  Results will be 
made official within ten days, once the period for candidates 
to appeal results has expired. 
 
3.  (SBU) The next step is for President Mesic to consult 
with political leaders and then decide who gets the first 
chance to form a government, based on that individual's 
ability to demonstrate to Mesic that he will be able to 
command a majority of seats in the new parliament.  Sanader 
expects to get the nod soon, but Mesic seems to be in no 
hurry.  The law sets no time limit for these consultations to 
be completed, but Mesic is expected to name a PM-Designate by 
the end of the week.  This individual would then be required 
to present a government to the new Parliament for a 
confidence vote within 30 days.  It is likely that the next 
Croatian cabinet will be seated before Christmas.  End 
Summary. 
 
HDZ Machine Campaign Delivers Results 
------------------------------------- 
 
4.  (C) Voters went to the polls on November 23 to elect a 
successor to Croatia's first post-Tudjman parliament.  The 
"official" portion of the campaign was short, but very 
intense, and the powerful HDZ campaign machine made the most 
of the natural pessimism of Croatian voters, convincing them 
that -- most empirical evidence to the contrary -- they were 
not better off than when the Racan government came to office 
in January 2000. 
 
HDZ Exceeds Even Its Own Expectations ... 
----------------------------------------- 
 
5.  (U) Sanader's HDZ won in eight of Croatia's ten 
geographical electoral districts and won big in the 
nationalist-leaning areas of Dalmatia and Eastern Slavonia 
which still feel the effects of war.  As expected, the HDZ 
was weakest in central Zagreb and in Istria, Croatia's most 
developed regions.  According to unofficial results, the HDZ 
won a total of 65 out of 151 seats in the new parliament. 
The number of seats assigned to representatives of voters 
outside of Croatia -- the "diaspora district" -- is 
determined by voter turnout.  The results of precincts in 
Bosnia and Herzegovina are still being tabulated; the result 
for the HDZ and the total number of seats in the new 
parliament may be increased by one. 
 
But Will Still Have Trouble Seating A Government 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
6.  (C) Despite winning almost twice as many seats as his 
closest rival (Racan's SDP), Sanader will have to work hard 
to form a coalition with even a narrow majority.  His most 
likely coalition partners, a grouping of the Croatian Social 
Liberal Party (HSLS) and the Democratic Center (DC), were 
dealt a humiliating defeat by the voters, electing only three 
MP's.  Neither party president will enter the Sabor, which 
almost certainly means the end of their political careers. 
Sanader can count on the support of the extreme right-wing 
Croatian Party of Rights (HSP), which won eight seats 
(doubling its total from the previous parliament), but he 
would rather not be saddled with the HSP's ultra-nationalist 
baggage. 
 
HSS Is Down, But Not Out of the Horsetrading 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
7.  (C) The Croatian Peasants' Party (HSS) had expected to be 
a major player in the next parliament, but instead lost 
ground.  Analysts suggest that voters interpreted Party 
President Tomcic's coyness during the last days of the 
campaign about whether his party would go right or left as 
"these seats for sale."  Rather than the 20 seats projected 
by reliable polls just two weeks before the election, the HSS 
secured only 10, down from 16 in the previous parliament. 
 
 
Nevertheless, the HSS could still try to bargain with the HDZ 
to enter government.  The HDZ would have to choose which 
partner, the HSP with its nationalist reputation or the HSS 
with its economic goals smacking of central planning, would 
be the lesser of two evils. 
 
Election Surprise -- Pensioners Win Three Seats 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
8.  (C) As expected, Racan's SDP was the other big loser in 
Sunday's poll, but his party -- together with coalition 
partners -- will remain a significant force in the new 
parliament.  The Croatian People's Party (HNS), which had 
only two seats in the previous Sabor, made important gains 
and now has 11 seats.  The one surprise was the Croatian 
Party of Pensioners (HSU), which enters the parliament for 
the first time with three seats.  Croatia's pundits are still 
scratching their heads about the success of the HSU, but 
speculate that they benefited from the HSS' loss. 
 
Thirteen Parties In Sabor Equals One Big Mess 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
9.  (C) When all the various coalition partners are counted 
separately, there will be a total of thirteen political 
parties represented in the next Croatian parliament.  Add to 
this cacophony an additional eight seats reserved for ethnic 
minorities (which in the last parliament almost always voted 
against the HDZ). 
 
Slim Majority May Force the HDZ to "Play Nice" 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
10.  (C) If the HSS decides not to align itself with the HDZ, 
Sanader will have a majority of only five seats in the new 
parliament.  This could be further eroded if the few seats 
from the HSLS/DC grouping decide to declare themselves as 
free agents (anything is possible).  On one hand, this may 
force Sanader to reach across the aisle to seek consensus 
before setting any new policy course.  But this slim majority 
will also mean that he will find it difficult to get the 
business of government done.  Because the SDP and HNS share 
the main policy goals which Sanader claimed the HDZ would 
pursue after elections, one might hope for non-partisan 
consensus on issues related to Croatia's integration into 
Euro-Atlantic institutions.  Unfortunately, as there is no 
love lost between the right and left in Croatia, the new 
opposition may look for opportunities to repay the HDZ's 
dirty parliamentary tricks which so often embarrassed the SDP 
during Racan's tenure. 
 
OSCE and NGO's Praise Election Process 
-------------------------------------- 
 
11.  (U) Long-term monitors from OSCE's Office of Democratic 
Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) cited a number of areas 
for improvement in Croatia's electoral legislation, but 
concluded that the conduct of the poll was professional, 
transparent and the result was the democratic expression of 
the voters.  As it did in 2000, the highly successful 
Croatian election watchdog NGO "GONG" mounted a full scale 
election monitoring effort with nearly 3000 participants. 
They reported a number of minor incidents, but concluded that 
the process was professional and in accordance with election 
law.  A parallel vote tabulation carried out by GONG 
confirmed the general results presented by Croatia's State 
Electoral Commission.  No political party has so far 
challenged any of the results in any of the polling stations 
in Croatia or abroad. 
 
Timelines: Mesic to Name PM-Designate 
------------------------------------- 
 
12.  (SBU) Now that the voting is over and reliable -- but 
not official -- results are available, Croatia's constitution 
calls for President Mesic to name a PM-designate, after 
consultations with the various political parties.  Mesic told 
the press that he would not necessarily name the PM-designate 
on November 24, but would seek evidence from the next 
potential prime minister of agreements with other political 
leaders which demonstrates that they would be able to win a 
vote of confidence.  Neither Croatia's constitution nor the 
election law specify the amount of time the President has to 
make his designation, but Mesic's political adviser told us 
the President would act before the end of the week.  Once a 
PM-Designate is named, he will have thirty days to present a 
cabinet to the parliament to pass a vote of confidence. 
 
Government In Place by Year's End 
--------------------------------- 
 
13.  (SBU) The results of the election will become official 
 
 
when the State Electoral Commission has received all of the 
signed originals of the protocols certifying results from all 
polling stations around the world and when all appeals of 
these results have been considered by Croatia's 
Constitutional Court.  Election officials tell us this should 
take about 10 days.  The new parliament must convene within 
20 days of "completion of the election" -- which is 
interpreted as publication of the official results.  Ideally, 
the first act of the new parliament should be to vote its 
confidence in the new government proposed by the 
PM-designate.  If Croatia's democratic process continues to 
function as efficiently as it has for this election cycle, a 
new Government could be in place before Croatia's public 
institutions begin to shut down for the Christmas and New 
Year holidays. 
FRANK 
 
 
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