US embassy cable - 03KUWAIT5342

C O N F I D E N T I A L KUWAIT 005342 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ARP, NEA/NGA, NEA/ARN, NEA/ENA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2013 
TAGS: PREL, KDEM, KU, IZ, IR, SA, EG, SY 
SUBJECT: (C) FORMER GCC SECGEN OPTIMISTIC FOR THE REGION 
 
Classified By: CDA Frank C. Urbancic for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
1. (C) Summary: Poloffs met with senior Adviser to the Prime 
Minister and former GCC Secretary General Abdullah Bishara on 
November 19.  After sharing details of Prime Minister Shaykh 
Sabah Al-Ahmed's domestic agenda (septel), Bishara offered an 
upbeat view on prospects for the region, based on the US 
liberation of Iraq.  End Summary. 
 
The Regional Picture 
-------------------- 
 
2. (C) Bishara was strikingly optimistic about prospects for 
the region, despite the recent upsurge of violence in Iraq. 
He said the US had been complacent after the end of the Cold 
War, but was reawakened by 9/11 and other events, and was 
starting to go back "on the offensive" in the Middle East; 
this was a good thing.  He exuded confidence that the US-led 
liberation of Iraq would drive positive change in the region. 
 He said the US had nothing to fear from Syria, but should 
keep an eye on Egypt, which was undergoing a period of 
"national fatigue" in which its soaring population, 
unresponsive bureaucracy and lack of economic development 
were leading it down a potentially dangerous path.  Bishara 
predicted that the GCC would have good relations with Iraq 
once it became stable, and that Iran would move towards 
moderation as the grip of the mullahs was reduced by pressure 
from its people. 
Saudi Arabia 
------------ 
 
3. (C) Senior Adviser to the Prime Minister and former GCC 
Secretary General Abdullah Bishara told Poloffs November 19 
 
SIPDIS 
he was pleased that the Saudi monarchy was finally taking 
steps to combat the threat of terrorism at home, but 
"angered" that the Kingdom was not doing enough to promote 
real change.  Referencing a scene he had witnessed on Saudi 
television in which a mullah declared the Saudi regime 
unshakeable, Bishara called efforts by the Saudi government 
"pure sheepishness."  He said the KSA needs to promote 
transparency and understanding by opening up the country to 
political discourse and encouraging its citizens to 
participate in conferences and other events outside Saudi 
territory. 
 
4. (C) Characterizing the royal/clergy partnership in Saudi 
Arabia as "out of fuel," Bishara said there needs to be a 
major rethinking on the part of the Saudi religious 
establishment as to what they are teaching.  He faulted the 
religious establishment for "hypocrisy" and intruding on 
people's lives.  Bishara, who is solidly in the liberal camp 
but lived in Saudi Arabia for twelve years, said he had 
recently visited Jeddah while performing Umrah, and was 
pleased to find a raging debate there about the future of 
Saudi Arabia. 
 
Iran 
---- 
 
5. (C) Bishara, whose nephew is Kuwait's current Ambassador 
to Tehran, said Iran had signed the recent IAEA agreement 
under duress, and predicted the regime would not last more 
than five years in its current state.  He said the people are 
fed up with the poor leadership of the mullahs and the lack 
of economic opportunity.  "Only oil is keeping the country 
afloat," he added.  Bishara said the regime's external 
policies were dominated by the need to stay relevant in the 
world, and Iran tried to balanced its lack of relations with 
the US by maintaining and increasing its ties to countries 
such as China, India and Russia. 
 
6.  (C) Comment:  Bishara is a well-connected liberal who has 
Shaykh Sabah's ear.  The most striking aspect of his 
presentation was its implicit confidence that the US-led 
liberation of Iraq remains on track and will inexorably 
influence the neighborhood for the better.  Any serious, 
long-term setback for democratic opening in Iraq would also 
have serious consequences for Kuwait's modernizing agenda. 
Squeezed among Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia, Kuwait is 
unlikely to strike out on a blazing path towards reform 
without at least some support from at least one of its three 
big neighbors. 
URBANCIC