US embassy cable - 00HARARE4088

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 004088 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AMBASSADOR POWELL AND BOGOSIAN 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
USUN FOR AMBASSADOR HOLBROOKE 
 
AID FOR GAMBINO 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/01/10 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, CG, ZI 
SUBJECT: S/E WOLPE'S DISCUSSION WITH MFA U/S HAMADZIRIPI 
ON DRC 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  04088  01 OF 03  261401Z 
 
REF: LUSAKA 3220 
 
CLASSIFIED BY GREAT LAKES SPECIAL ENVOY HOWARD WOLPE. 
REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
1.  (C)  SUMMARY:  GREAT LAKES SPECIAL ENVOY HOWARD 
WOLPE MET WITH MFA UNDERSECRETARY FOR AFRICA DAVID 
HAMADZIRIPI JULY 19 ON THE SITUATION IN THE CONGO. 
WOLPE EXPRESSED US CONCERN THAT THE LUSAKA ACCORDS WERE 
ABOUT TO UNRAVEL, PARTICULARLY IN LIGHT OF KABILA'S 
CONTINUING RESISTANCE TO MASIRE'S ROLE AS FACILITATOR. 
HAMADZIRIPI AGREED, AND SAID THAT HE HAS BEEN TRYING TO 
DEVELOP MODALITIES FOR REVIVING LUSAKA, INCLUDING A 
MEMORANDUM SPELLING OUT THE DUTIES OF THE FACILITATOR. 
HE INFORMED WOLPE THAT MASIRE HAD TOLD MUGABE DURING 
THEIR LAST MEETING THAT HE WAS FRUSTRATED AND READY TO 
STEP DOWN.  MUGABE HAD ENCOURAGED HIM TO PERSEVERE. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
MASIRE 
------ 
 
2.  (C)  GREAT LAKES SPECIAL ENVOY HOWARD WOLPE, 
ACCOMPANIED BY AF SPECIAL ADVISOR JOHN PRENDERGAST AND 
POLOFF, MET WITH MFA UNDERSECRETARY DAVID HAMADZIRIPI 
JULY 19.  HAMADZIRIPI INFORMED WOLPE THAT THERE HAD BEEN 
A "VERY SERIOUS" DISCUSSION ON THE CONGO AT THE OAU 
MEETING IN LOME, AND THAT ZAMBIAN PRESIDENT CHILUBA HAD 
WRITTEN TO THE LUSAKA SIGNATORIES BEFORE THE OAU MEETING 
PROPOSING A DRC HEADS OF STATE SUMMIT (REFTEL). 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  04088  01 OF 03  261401Z 
 
3.  (C)  HAMADZIRIPI EXPRESSED CONCERN THAT THE 
CONGOLESE REBELS WERE "SPLITTING INTO SMITHEREENS," 
WHICH COULD DERAIL THE LUSAKA PROCESS.  WOLPE RESPONDED 
THAT THIS IS ONLY ONE OF MANY THREATS TO LUSAKA, THE 
FOREMOST OF WHICH IS KABILA'S RESISTANCE TO MASIRE'S 
CONTINUED PARTICIPATION AS FACILITATOR -- A FIG LEAF FOR 
HIS FEAR OF THE INTER-CONGOLESE DIALOGUE.  HE NOTED WITH 
CONCERN THAT, IN A RECENT CONVERSATION WITH SEVERAL U.S. 
MEMBERS OF CONGRESS, NAMIBIAN PRESIDENT NUJOMA HAD SAID 
THAT MASIRE NO LONGER HAS THE BACKING OF KABILA'S 
SOUTHERN ALLIES.  HAMADZIRIPI TOLD WOLPE THAT, DURING 
HIS MOST RECENT MEETING WITH PRESIDENT MUGABE, MASIRE 
HAD SAID "I AM GIVING UP" (I.E., PLANNING TO STEP DOWN 
AS FACILITATOR).  MUGABE HAD URGED HIM NOT TO GIVE UP 
TOO EASILY; "WE WILL BE THERE TO SUPPORT YOU."  HOWEVER, 
HE HAD CANDIDLY TOLD MASIRE THAT, GIVEN THAT THE LUSAKA 
PROCESS WAS AN AFRICAN INITIATIVE, HE WOULD PREFER TO 
SEE MASIRE HAVE AFRICAN ADVISORS.  HAMADZIRIPI ADDED 
PARENTHETICALLY THAT MASIRE'S OFFICE WAS RUN BY A 
CANADIAN AND A BRITON, WITH THE RECENT ADDITION OF A 
ZAMBIAN. 
 
4.  (C)  WOLPE TOLD HAMADZIRIPI THAT SEVERAL PROMINENT 
FRENCH SPEAKERS HAD MADE THEMSELVES AVAILABLE TO ASSIST 
MASIRE, INCLUDING SPECIAL ENVOY FOR LA FRANCOPHONIE 
HASSAN LABATT, A MAURITANIAN; FORMER BENIN MINISTER 
OF PLANNING TEVOERDJERE, DON MATTEO ZUPPI OF SANT 
EGIDIO; A. T. TOURE; AND OULD ABDALLAH, WHO IS CURRENTLY 
WITH THE GLOBAL COALITION FOR AFRICA. SUCH AN 
ARRANGEMENT COULD PROVIDE A FACE-SAVING WAY FOR KABILA 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  04088  01 OF 03  261401Z 
TO REVERSE HIS OPPOSITION TO MASIRE.  LABATT, WOLPE SAID, 
HAD AGREED TO BE MASIRE'S MAN-ON-THE-GROUND IN KINSHASA. 
 
5.  (C)  HAMADZIRIPI NOTED THAT KABILA HAD RECENTLY 
REITERATED HIS OPPOSITION TO MASIRE, SAYING THAT HE 
ACTED LIKE A "GOVERNOR-GENERAL."  HE EXPRESSED CONCERN 
THAT IT WAS POSSIBLE THAT "IF WE CAN RETAIN HIM, HIS 
RELATIONS WITH THE DRC GOVERNMENT HAVE SUNK SO LOW THAT 
HE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO DO ANYTHING."  HAMADZIRIPI SAID 
THAT HE WAS AWARE THAT ACCEDING TO THE REMOVAL OF KABILA 
WOULD SEND THE WRONG SIGNAL, BUT THE PARTIES ARE IN A 
BIND.  THE SEEDS OF A SOLUTION, HE TOLD WOLPE, COULD 
INCLUDE PRESSING THE DRC GOVERNMENT TO CONFIRM ITS 
COMMITMENT TO THE LUSAKA-SANCTIONED INTER-CONGOLESE 
DIALOGUE AND SPELLING OUT THE RESPONSIBILITIES OF THE 
FACILITATOR MORE CLEARLY. 
 
6.  (C)  HAMADZIRIPI TOLD WOLPE THAT HIS OWN FAVORED 
COURSE OF ACTION WOULD BE TO USE THE OAU COUNCIL OF 
MINISTERS' STATEMENT OF SUPPORT FOR MASIRE AS THE BASIS 
FOR AN AFRICAN PUSH TO RETAIN MASIRE.  THE NEXT STEP 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ8973 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  04088  02 OF 03  261401Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   AID-00   CIAE-00  DODE-00  SRPP-00  EAP-00   EUR-00 
      VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    L-00     AC-01 
      NEA-00   NSAE-00  OIC-02   OMB-01   PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00 
      ACE-00   P-00     SP-00    SSO-00   SS-00    TRSE-00  T-00 
      USIE-00  PMB-00   DRL-02   G-00     SAS-00     /007W 
                  ------------------72A266  261401Z /49 
O 260835Z JUL 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6692 
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
RWANDA COLLECTIVE 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 004088 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AMBASSADOR POWELL AND BOGOSIAN 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
USUN FOR AMBASSADOR HOLBROOKE 
 
AID FOR GAMBINO 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/01/10 
 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, MOBS, CG, ZI 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  04088  02 OF 03  261401Z 
SUBJECT: S/E WOLPE'S DISCUSSION WITH MFA U/S HAMADZIRIPI 
ON DRC 
 
WOULD BE TO SPELL OUT HOW HE WILL CARRY OUT HIS 
FUNCTIONS IN A DOCUMENT THAT COULD PERHAPS BE TERMED A 
"TECHNICAL ARRANGEMENT."  HAMADZIRIPI HAS BEEN WORKING 
ON SUCH A DOCUMENT BUT HAS NOT MADE MUCH RECENT PROGRESS 
DUE TO HIS TRAVELS.  THIS WOULD HELP CLARIFY WHETHER 
KABILA IS "JUST MAD AT MASIRE" OR OPPOSED TO A NATIONAL 
DIALOGUE.  HAMADZIRIPI SAID HE BELIEVED THE FORMER WAS 
THE CASE.  PRENDERGAST AND WOLPE NOTED THAT IT WOULD BE 
IMPORTANT TO EXERCISE CAUTION IN CARRYING OUT THIS 
EFFORT IN ORDER TO AVOID CREATING THE IMPRESSION THAT 
THE ROLE OF THE FACILITATOR WAS BEING REDEFINED AS A 
CONCESSION TO KABILA.  HAMADZIRIPI REPLIED THAT HE DID 
NOT BELIEVE THIS WOULD BE A SERIOUS PROBLEM BECAUSE 
LUSAKA IS VAGUE ON THE ROLE OF THE FACILITATOR.  SINCE 
LUSAKA IS THE "PROPERTY" OF THE SIGNATORIES AND NOT OF 
THE FACILITATOR, THEY WOULD BE WITHIN THEIR RIGHTS TO 
FURTHER SPELL OUT THE FACILITATOR'S ROLE. 
 
7.  (C)  WOLPE COMMENTED THAT KABILA FEELS THREATENED BY 
THE RISK TO HIS AUTHORITY THAT A FACILITATOR BRINGS, A 
PROBLEM THAT ALSO AROSE WITH PRESIDENT BUYOYA IN 
BURUNDI.  KABILA INCORRECTLY SEES HIMSELF IN A SITUATION 
IN WHICH HE CAN BE OUTVOTED.  A FACILITATOR, WOLPE 
NOTED, CAN DECIDE WHO COMES TO THE TABLE, BUT CANNOT 
IMPOSE A CERTAIN OUTCOME.  HAMADZIRIPI AGREED THAT THE 
CONFUSION SURROUNDING THE POWERS OF THE FACILITATOR 
"GOES TO THE HEART OF THE PROBLEM" AND POINTS TO THE 
NEED TO CLARIFY THE FACILITATOR'S ROLE. 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  04088  02 OF 03  261401Z 
 
FIGHTING IN THE CONGO 
--------------------- 
 
8.  (C)  WOLPE EXPRESSED CONCERN ABOUT RECENT FIGHTING 
IN EQUATEUR.  HE SAID HE HAD CONTINUOUSLY 
WARNED REBEL LEADER BEMBA, WHO CONSULTS WITH HIM 
FREQUENTLY, NOT TO ADVANCE BEYOND THE KAMPALA CEASE-FIRE 
LINE, AND PARTICULARLY NOT TO MOVE ON MBANDAKA.  BEMBA 
HAD COUNTERED THAT KABILA'S BEHAVIOR IS MAKING THIS 
DIFFICULT.  WOLPE TOLD HAMADZIRIPI THAT IT IS UNCLEAR 
WHETHER BEMBA MOVED BACK TO THE CEASE-FIRE LINE AS 
HE CLAIMS TO HAVE DONE IN RESPONSE TO WOLPE'S DEMARCHES 
A FEW WEEKS PREVIOUS.  HOWEVER, HE ASSERTED, IT IS 
APPARENT THAT RECENT FIGHTING WAS INITIATED BY 
KABILA.  PRENDERGAST SAID THAT IT IS TIME FOR THE GOZ TO 
REDUCE THE LEVEL OF HOSTILITIES BY LEANING A LOT HARDER 
ON ITS CONGOLESE ALLY.  HAMADZIRIPI NOTED THAT, AT THE JMC 
MEETING IN KAMPALA LAST OCTOBER, THE VARIOUS PARTIES HAD 
BEEN ASKED TO PLOT THEIR FORWARD LINES.  THEY WERE ASKED 
TO DO SO AGAIN IN APRIL OF THIS YEAR, AND "YOU WOULD BE 
SURPRISED BY THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE OCTOBER AND 
APRIL POSITIONS."  IN SOME CASES, THE LINE HAD MOVED BY 
400 KILOMETERS.  HE ACKNOWLEDGED THAT "THE CONGOLESE 
HAVE BEEN A BIT ADVENTUROUS," ATTACKING, THEN FLEEING, 
THEREBY EXPOSING ZIMBABWEAN TROOPS TO DANGER.  HAMADZIRIPI 
ADDED THAT HE HAD BEEN QUITE CONCERNED TO READ REPORTS OF 
THE SERIOUS HUMANITARIAN SITUATION IN AREAS OF CONFLICT. 
WOLPE NOTED THAT THERE HAVE BEEN HUGE REFUGEE FLOWS INTO 
BRAZZAVILLE. 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  04088  02 OF 03  261401Z 
KABILA'S RELATIONS WITH THE GOZ 
------------------------------- 
 
9.  (C)  HAMADZIRIPI TOLD WOLPE THAT THE GOZ DID NOT 
AGREE WITH KABILA'S DECISION TO APPOINT A CONSTITUENT 
ASSEMBLY.  MUGABE HAD ASKED KABILA, "HOW CAN YOU HAVE A 
CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY WHEN SOME PARTS OF THE COUNTRY ARE 
UNDER OCCUPATION?"  HIS OWN SUSPICION, HAMADZIRIPI SAID, 
WAS THAT KABILA WAS TRYING TO WIDEN HIS BASE BY BRINGING 
PEOPLE INTO THE ASSEMBLY. 
 
10.  (C)  WOLPE EXPRESSED CONCERN ABOUT KABILA'S 
CONTINUED INTRANSIGENCE ON A NUMBER OF ISSUES, INCLUDING 
THE FIGHTING IN EQUATEUR AND MONUC ACCESS.  HAMADZIRIPI 
SAID THAT THE GOZ SHARES THESE CONCERNS.  HIS OWN VIEW 
IS THAT THE GOZ NEEDS TO SEND A MESSAGE TO KABILA THAT 
THE ZIMBABWEAN FORCES WILL NOT BE THERE FOREVER. 
WITHDRAWING SOME TROOPS WOULD BE A WAY TO SEND THAT 
MESSAGE.  HOWEVER, HE NOTED THAT THIS APPROACH MAY BE 
UNPALATABLE TO (GOZ) POLITICIANS.  WOLPE OBSERVED THAT 
KABILA HAS IN THE PAST RESPONDED ONLY WHEN CONFRONTED 
WITH SPECIFIC THREATS.   HAMADZIRIPI AGREED THAT "IT 
SHOULDN'T BE THAT WAY BUT THAT'S THE CASE."  AN 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ8980 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  04088  03 OF 03  261402Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   AID-00   CIAE-00  DODE-00  SRPP-00  EAP-00   EUR-00 
      VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    L-00     AC-01 
      NEA-00   NSAE-00  OIC-02   OMB-01   PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00 
      ACE-00   P-00     SP-00    SSO-00   SS-00    TRSE-00  T-00 
      USIE-00  PMB-00   DRL-02   G-00     SAS-00     /007W 
                  ------------------72A28A  261402Z /49 
O 260835Z JUL 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6693 
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
RWANDA COLLECTIVE 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 004088 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AMBASSADOR POWELL AND BOGOSIAN 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
USUN FOR AMBASSADOR HOLBROOKE 
 
AID FOR GAMBINO 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/01/10 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, MOBS, CG, ZI 
SUBJECT: S/E WOLPE'S DISCUSSION WITH MFA U/S HAMADZIRIPI 
ON DRC 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  04088  03 OF 03  261402Z 
 
ADDITIONAL COMPLICATION IN THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN 
KABILA AND THE GOZ, HE NOTED, IS THAT THE DRC HAS NO 
BUREAUCRATIC STRUCTURES; ONLY KABILA AND HIS MINISTERS 
CAN SPEAK ON BEHALF OF THE GOVERNMENT. 
 
MONUC DEPLOYMENT 
---------------- 
 
11. (C)  WOLPE TOLD HAMADZIRIPI THAT CONSIDERATION WAS 
BEING GIVEN TO AN INITIAL, SEPARATE DEPLOYMENT OF 
MONUC FORCES IN KISANGANI.  THIS MAY REQUIRE MODIFYING 
THE UN RESOLUTION, BUT IT WOULD DEMONSTRATE FORWARD 
MOVEMENT.  HAMADZIRIPI RESPONDED POSITIVELY, ALTHOUGH 
NOTING THAT THE GOZ HAD "MAYBE A FEW CONCERNS" ABOUT 
FOCUSING ON KISANGANI. 
 
12.  (C)  WOLPE EXPRESSED CONCERN ABOUT KABILA'S 
RELUCTANCE TO ALLOW MONUC ACCESS TO CERTAIN AREAS, 
SUCH AS MBANDAKA, AND HIS INSISTENCE ON CLEARING 
EVERY FLIGHT IN THE CONGO.  HAMADZIRIPI AGREED.  IN A 
RECENT MEETING BETWEEN THE GOZ AND UN PEACEKEEPING 
OFFICIALS, HE RECALLED, IT WAS AGREED THAT ZIMBABWE 
SHOULD "SAY LESS AND LESS" ABOUT ITS WILLINGNESS TO 
WITHDRAW BASED ON MONUC DEPLOYMENT , SINCE KABILA COULD 
SEE THIS LACK OF SUPPORT AS A REASON TO STONEWALL ON 
IMPLEMENTING THE AGREEMENT, THUS REMOVING THE TRIGGER 
FOR ZIMBABWE'S EXIT.  PRESIDENT MUGABE, HAMADZIRIPI 
TOLD WOLPE, HAS BEEN VERY CLEAR THAT "WHATEVER WE CAN 
DO TO HASTEN THE DAY MONUC WILL DEPLOY WE WILL DO. 
WE WANT TO COOPERATE WITH THE UN." 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  04088  03 OF 03  261402Z 
 
VOLUNTARY DDRR 
-------------- 
 
13.  (C)  HAMADZIRIPI URGED THE USG TO SHARE THE NON- 
PAPER ON DDRR WITH THE UGANDANS AND RWANDANS, SINCE 
"SOME POSITIONS THEY ARE PUSHING ARE UNREALISTIC."  IT 
IS NECESSARY TO REVIVE THIS ISSUE.  PRENDERGAST NOTED 
THAT THE USG'S PROPOSED APPROACH STRESSES VOLUNTARY 
DEMOBILIZATION.  HAMADZIRIPI CONCURRED THAT THE EFFORT 
WOULD NOT BE A SUCCESS IF THE SEQUENCING DID NOT PLACE 
VOLUNTARY DDRR BEFORE COERCIVE.  HE NOTED THAT THE GOZ 
WANTS THE JMC GUIDELINES ENDORSED BY THE POLITICAL 
COMMITTEE AT THE FIRST MEETING PUT INTO PRACTICE.  IN 
ORDER TO BE SUCCESSFUL, HAMADZIRIPI CONTINUED, THE 
EFFORT SHOULD NOT BE CONFINED TO THE SIGNATORIES; 
RATHER, IT SHOULD BE INTERNATIONALIZED.  THE SADC REGION 
SHOULD BE BROUGHT IN.  THE VICTORIA FALLS SUMMIT ON 
GOOD FRIDAY MADE IT CLEAR THAT IT WAS NOT PRACTICAL 
TO INCLUDE FORCIBLE DISARMAMENT IN THE FIRST INSTANCE. 
WOLPE NOTED THAT RWANDAN PRESIDENT KAGAME HAD RECENTLY 
TOLD THE BRITISH THAT HE IS NOT PUSHING FOR ALL 
CULPRITS TO BE TRACKED DOWN.  THEY ARE PREPARED 
FOR INTERNATIONAL MECHANISMS FOR INTEGRATION OR 
RESETTLEMENT.  WOLPE SAID THAT, PURSUANT TO THE JMC, IT 
MAY BE POSSIBLE TO SHIFT THE FOCUS FROM 
POLITICAL DISAGREEMENTS TO A TECHNICAL ASSESSMENT THAT 
WOULD LAY OUT THE WAY FORWARD ON VOLUNTARY DDRR. 
HAMADZIRIPI RESPONDED THAT THE JMC IS SUPPOSED TO LOOK 
AT FINANCIAL AND MANPOWER ISSUES, AND A DISCUSSION ON 
THIS HAS BEGUN.  THE UGANDANS AND RWANDANS ARE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  04088  03 OF 03  261402Z 
RELATIVELY HAPPY WITH THIS. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
14.  (C)  HAMADZIRIPI PROVIDED SOME IMPORTANT IDEAS FOR 
MOVING THE LUSAKA PROCESS FORWARD.  FOR EXAMPLE, SOME 
SPECIFIC "TECHNICAL ARRANGEMENTS" DEFINING THE TERMS OF THE 
FACILITATION MIGHT ALLOW SIGNATORIES TO BECOME THE ENFORCER 
OF THE PROCESS LEADING TO THE NATIONAL DIALOGUE, RATHER 
THAN LEAVING THIS TO MASIRE HIMSELF, WHO HAS NO LEVERAGE. 
THE IDEA THAT ZIMBABWE MIGHT THREATEN KABILA WITH TROOP 
WITHDRAWALS IF HE DOES NOT COMPLY WITH LUSAKA IS ALSO A 
GOOD ONE, SOMETHING THE TRAVELING PARTY HAS PURSUED WITH 
UGANDA AND RWANDA AS A BASIS FOR DIALOGUE WITH THE GOZ AS 
WELL AS THE QUINTET MEETING IDEA. 
 
15.  (U)  S/E WOLPE HAS CLEARED ON THIS CABLE. 
 
IRVING 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
>