US embassy cable - 03ZAGREB2463

C O N F I D E N T I A L  ZAGREB 002463 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
EUR/SCE FOR KEVIN KABUMOTO 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, HR, Political Parties/Elections 
SUBJECT: SDSS LEADERS RALLY THE PEOPLE 
 
REF: ZAGREB 2365 
 
Classified By: PolOff Mitch Benedict for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d) 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
1. (SBU) Under Croatia's peculiar election law, Serbs are 
pulled in two different directions in the run up to voting. 
They can vote for candidates on the minority lists or for 
candidates on the national lists but not for both.  At a 
rally November 20, candidates of the moderate Independent 
Democratic Serb Party (SDSS) encouraged voters to vote for 
the ethnic lists.  Some say this makes no sense: the Serbs 
are guaranteed three seats in the next parliament no matter 
how few votes they get, so they should vote for the national 
parties most sensitive to their issues to ensure maximum 
influence.  Not so, says the SDSS.  Vote for them on the 
ethnic lists so SDSS members of parliament have the 
credibility of being backed by a large constituency.  They 
will then be better positioned to do the bidding of Croatia's 
Serbian community, and maybe even play the role of a 
kingmaker in an otherwise evenly divided legislature, with 
whatever coalition eventually emerges after elections.  End 
summary. 
 
Last Day of Campaigning 
----------------------- 
 
2. (U) With one full day of campaigning remaining in the run 
up to parliamentary elections on November 23, we attended a 
Zagreb rally of the Independent Democratic Serb Party (SDSS). 
 Held in a small concert hall in the center of the city, 
better known for rock concerts, the rally drew a mostly 
middle-aged and elderly crowd of approximately 250.  A 
traditional Serbian band opened the rally, which was attended 
by current SDSS office holders from across the country, as 
well as the party's top three candidates:  Vojislav 
Stanomirovic, President of the SDSS, Milorad Pupovac, Vice 
President, and Ratko Gajica. 
 
3. (C) All three candidates repeated a now familiar theme of 
the SDSS campaign -- ethnic Serbs should vote for candidates 
on the ethnic Serb minority list.  To urge all Serbs to vote 
on the minority list, when they are guaranteed three seats 
regardless of the number of voters, would appear illogical on 
the surface, since by doing so the Serbian leadership is 
putting at risk the reelection of a center-left coalition, 
their natural allies.  At least three factors explain the 
logic.  First, although there are three seats guaranteed for 
Serbs, this election presents a real competition between 
Serbs.  Some observers predict the SDSS will win two seats 
and Milan Djukic, a more extreme populist -- based on name 
recognition alone -- will win one.  However, the SDSS dreams 
of winning all three seats, as well as one or two diaspora 
seats, which would make them a respectable small party in 
Parliament and a force to reckon with.  Though highly 
unlikely, an SDSS electoral sweep would require a significant 
increase in Serbs voting on the ethnic list. 
 
4. (C) Second, along with so many other segments of the SDP's 
electoral base, ethnic Serbs are angry and disillusioned by 
what they view as the ruling coalition's abject failure to 
resolve their issues.  They want a government of the left, 
but not a continuation of the current coalition, according to 
Pupovac.  He declared that the last three and a half years 
have been wasted, and Croatian Serbs need a courageous and 
decisive government that takes their votes more into account 
than the voters of the HDZ.  Pupovac said that Prime Minister 
Racan's much delayed call for Croatian Serbs to return was as 
convincing as when Tudjman told them not to leave. 
 
5. (SBU) Gajica told the small crowd that he was approached 
in Knin -- the center of the war-affected area near the 
Bosnian border, with a population now consisting entirely of 
either returned Serbs or settled Bosnian Croatians -- by a 
representative of the ruling coalition, who said "since it 
only takes one vote each to get all three of your (Serb) 
members elected, give your votes to us."  Gajica's response, 
intended to roil his audience, was that "they had our votes 
on a platter" before, but failed to address in any meaningful 
way issues of direct concern to the Serbian community. 
Stressing the theme that Serbs will not be taken for granted 
any more prompted loud applause. 
 
6. (C) Finally, to affect the work of the Parliament, and to 
be a legitimate partner of the ruling coalition, Serbs 
elected to fill the minority seats need to be able to say 
they speak for the Serbian community.  We attended SDSS 
rallies both in Knin and in Zagreb earlier, and the message 
 
was identical -- if only 10,000 Serbs vote on the minority 
list, and 100,000 Serbs vote for the ruling coalition, then 
the Government will be able to claim rightly that they have 
the mandate to speak for the Serbs.  Gajica called such 
thinking "dangerous," and urged Serbs to use their numbers to 
build an organization that is both strong and lasting. 
Gajica and Stanomirovic both have stated at rallies that they 
hope such ethnic politics will not be relevant in 20 years, 
but lament that it is a realistic necessity now in order for 
Serbs to get their issues addressed.  Pupovac privately has 
told us he would feel more comfortable within the folds of a 
"civic" social democratic party, but democracy in Croatia is 
not yet at the stage where there are issue-based political 
parties able to address minority issues adequately. 
 
Not mincing Words 
----------------- 
 
7. (U) Looking tired and somewhat edgy, Pupovac ventured into 
territory normally off limits to politicians.  It was 
"offensive and humiliating" for Serbs to be asked if they are 
"full Croatians" and loyal to Croatia.  He told the audience 
he personally hoped for a Croatia unencumbered, without 
disbelief, bad feelings, and mistrust.  Sounding much more 
like a psychologist than the professor of rhetoric that he 
is, Pupovac expressed hope for a Croatia that could have a 
"relaxed relationship with itself."  He spoke of a country 
where all are treated equal, and each is valued. 
 
8. (U) A large part of Croatia was silenced, he continued, 
and the ruling coalition has not done its job to remove this 
suppression.  Speaking of all Croatians, he said people need 
self-confidence, and should believe more in themselves, 
rather than seek such confirmation elsewhere.  Addressing 
Serbs directly, he said, "we certainly need to face certain 
truths, to ask why we are guilty too, either for omissions or 
for what others were doing on our behalf."  However, he 
spread the blame when he intoned that Serbs should be able to 
accept not just their guilt but also those things for which 
they are not guilty -- and he then listed Croatian cities in 
which war crimes were committed against Serbian civilians. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
9. (C) From talking to ethnic Serbs, particularly their 
political leadership, and attending some of their rallies, it 
is clear that the Racan-led coalition has left many 
disenchanted.  They see less need to vote for what would be 
their logical coalition partners on the center-left -- even 
if it means nationalist parties benefit on election day. 
Indeed, some Croatian Serb leaders may hope that the group of 
eight minority seats in the next parliament becomes a 
potential king maker in an otherwise evenly divided 
legislature -- giving the minorities more clout to extract 
concessions, from either a Racan-led or a Sanader-led 
government.  A second reason why SDSS wants Croatian Serbs to 
vote for ethnic lists is more crass: the party cannot stand 
Milan Djukic, leader of the rival Serbian National Party 
(SNS).  The lower the turnout in the ethnic voting, the 
better Dukic will do.  In Croatia, as in the rest of the 
region, politics is personal. 
FRANK 
 
 
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