US embassy cable - 03ZAGREB2458

C O N F I D E N T I A L ZAGREB 002458 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, HR, Political Parties/Elections 
SUBJECT: ELECTIONS: CAMPAIGN CIRCUS IN ZAGREB 
 
Classified By: Poloff Alexandra Shuey, for reasons 1.5 (b,d) 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
1.   (C) On the last day of the campaign for the November 23 
parliamentary elections, there is no escaping campaign hoopla 
in Zagreb.  All of Croatia's political parties -- even those 
with no hope of crossing the five percent vote threshold 
needed to win seats -- are pulling out all the stops.  They 
are spending freely; according to one leading daily, more 
than USD 10 million will have been spent during the short 
campaign, more than five dollars per person expected to vote. 
 Election-related TV and radio ads dominate the airwaves; 
party campaign cars can be seen plying city streets blaring 
Croatian music and party doctrine; activists are handing out 
pamphlets on busy corners; and political rallies -- complete 
with party literature, food, music, and Croatian celebrity 
guest appearances -- take place every night in Zagreb's main 
square.  The parties are running full force in these last 
pre-election days, turning the Croatian capital into 
something of an election-obsessed three-ring circus.  In the 
last days of the campaign, PM Racan's SDP seems to have 
finally found a rhythm that works, but this will likely be 
too little, too late.  End summary. 
 
 
HDZ Campaign Dominates the Scene 
-------------------------------- 
 
2.  (U) As we approach the November 23 elections, many of the 
political parties are sponsoring concerts and political 
rallies in Zagreb's main Ban Jelacic Square as well as other 
locations around town, and increasing numbers of party 
activists wander the pedestrian-only streets, handing out 
campaign pamphlets with fervor.  Both the SDP and HDZ wound 
up their campaigns with competing rallies on November 20 
about ten blocks apart in downtown Zagreb.  Both events drew 
big crowds, but the SDP managed to land two of Croatia's 
hottest pop acts and out-drew the HDZ by a solid margin.  The 
HDZ crowd was older and veterans from Croatia's war of 
independence were prominent.  The SDP crowd was a mix of 
party faithful, curious voters and (overwhelmingly) younger 
Zagrebers waiting for the politicians to get off the stage 
and the rock 'n roll to start.  The Peasants Party (HSS) 
rally on November 19 in Zagreb had a similar format; an old, 
stodgy membership turned up for free beer and music only to 
have their hats blown off by a way-too-loud state-of-the-art 
sound system. 
 
Cult of Personality? 
-------------------- 
 
3.   (SBU) Sanader's image permeates the HDZ's political 
campaign; he seems confident that the personality cult he is 
developing -- along with the self-confident aura of the 
campaign -- will result in victory for his party.  In fact, 
in interviews and public statements, the HDZ increasingly has 
been behaving as if it has already won.  In this vein, 
Sanader continues to pull out all the stops, airing not only 
campaign ads (designed by a U.S. firm), but also snippets of 
an interview with Austrian Prime Minister Schusssel, 
professing to be Sanader's friend and singing HDZ's praises. 
In broadcasting this ad and other testimonials from a number 
of right-of-center European leaders, Sanader seeks to 
reassure voters who have doubts about whether an HDZ 
government will be able to bring Croatia closer to EU 
membership. 
 
4.   (SBU) Television ads, which until this past weekend had 
been seen mainly during prime time and mostly for HDZ, have 
in the final days of the campaign absolutely taken over the 
airwaves.  Often five or six campaign ads will air back to 
back -- sometimes with two HDZ ads among them -- and they can 
be seen at all hours of the day.  They range from the 
polished and professional to the humorous and clearly low 
budget.  Much as is the case with the billboards, the HDZ 
appears to have put the most money and effort into their ads, 
which depict Sanader walking through a variety of Croatian 
cities, speaking with and "high five-ing" various Croatians 
-- old, young, traditional, and hip -- and ending with him 
emerging from a crowd of people, the EU stars circling about 
the screen and then melding into the Croatian flag as the 
backdrop all blurs and the image focuses on Sanader himself 
and the HDZ campaign slogan, "Get Croatia Moving."  The 
campaign has been well-oiled, although some say it is too 
slick. 
 
5.   (SBU) While conducted on a smaller scale compared to 
HDZ, HSS and HNS -- both until elections were called part of 
SDP's ruling coalition -- seem to be effectively appealing to 
their respective electorates, or at least are attempting to. 
This week, HSS President Tomcic took up a "personalization" 
strategy; increasingly HSS billboards have moved from the 
slightly bizarre tree-hugging man with the "I love my land" 
 
slogan, to one with Tomcic as the dominant image with the 
Croatian countryside backdrop and the slogan remaining.  The 
HNS on the other hand, has flaunted the new Zagreb-Split 
highway at every opportunity.  Their billboards all picture 
the party's two leaders in the foreground, with images of the 
highway and the EU and Croatian flags in the backdrop.  One 
HNS TV ad depicts a middle-aged man driving home on the 
highway, pulling up to his house -- complete with a gnome in 
the front yard -- and sighing with happiness.  The references 
to the highways are HNS's attempt to profit from the road 
construction that has gone on busily over the past three 
years. 
 
SDP: Retooling, but Out of Time 
------------------------------- 
 
6.   (C) Until the last week of the election campaign, the 
SDP effort campaign was floundering.  The party seemed to be 
behaving as if it had already lost the election, sending a 
confused, unclear message in which the government's successes 
were not highlighted.  But in the final week of the campaign, 
the SDP has adjusted its message, learning from the success 
of the personalized campaigns of other parties.  New posters, 
billboards and TV ads feature PM Racan -- looking very Prime 
Ministerial indeed -- prominently.  Racan scored well in a 
head-to-head debate with Sanader, but since that event 
competed with a soccer match in which Croatia beat Slovenia 
to qualify for the European Champions League, few voters 
noticed.  In the final days, the SDP developed a new slogan, 
and began asking voters not to choose between left or right, 
but forward or back.  SDP leaders tell us that momentum is 
swinging in their direction.  "If we only had five more days, 
we would beat them soundly," Igor Dragovan, SDP's Secretary 
General told us on November 20. 
 
Smaller Parties 
--------------- 
 
7.   (U) The smaller parties and the plethora of independent 
candidates, none of whom has much chance of ending up in the 
next Parliament, seem -- somewhat inexplicably -- just as 
eager as the larger parties to get the word out.  Nearly all 
have been seen around Zagreb campaigning, most already have 
numerous billboards up and more go up everyday.  Many have 
begun airing short TV ads, and one even has a website devoted 
entirely to his campaign platform.  Candidates on these 
independent lists run the gambit from former SDP vice 
president Zdravko Tomac to the known arms dealer, Zvonko 
Zubak, to an idealistic Croatian-American businessman, whose 
billboards simply show him, his first name (Boris) in a giant 
red square, and proclaim "Dobar Glas!" -- a vote for Boris is 
a "Good Vote." 
 
8.  (SBU) The OSCE/ODIHR assessment of the campaign continues 
to be positive.  Outside of a few isolated egg-throwing 
incidents, there has been no violence and voters are being 
given the information they need to make an informed decision. 
 Media coverage has been balanced, and although coverage has 
been skewed in favor of larger political parties, it is 
evenly split between the SDP and HDZ. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
9.   (C) This campaign season, with its focus on image and 
not substance seems to have left Croatia's voters and opinion 
leaders unsatisfied.  The HDZ's over-confidence seems to be 
turning off voters -- an impression that Racan is encouraging 
by consistently pointing to Sanader's "arrogance" during the 
campaign.  Despite their own lackluster efforts, one SDP 
advantage has been the fear factor; when all is said and 
done, some just tremble at the thought of Tudjman's old party 
returning to power.  They will vote SDP.  However, this could 
also swing the other way; with polls showing an advantage for 
HDZ, voters could decide to stay home on Sunday, driven to 
despair by HDZ's well-oiled campaign machine.  The good news 
is that all the punditry and speculation will come to an end 
on election day, and all the political jockeying and 
coalition building will get started. 
FRANK 
 
 
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