US embassy cable - 03ABUJA1995

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 001995 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2013 
TAGS: PREL, ZI, NI 
SUBJECT: MFA DOUBTFUL OF MUGABE INVITE TO CHOGM 
 
 
REF: HARARE 2256 
 
 
Classified by CDA Roger Meece.  Reason 1.5 (b/d) 
 
 
1. (C) During a November 20 meeting with MFA Permanent 
Secretary Amb. Daniel Hart, CDA asked about any new 
 
SIPDIS 
developments related to the upcoming Commonwealth Heads of 
Government Meeting (CHOGM) arising out of President 
Obasanjo's recent visit to Zimbabwe.  Hart professed not to 
know the details of Obasanjo's discussions in Harare, but 
expressed doubt that any significant changes will be made to 
summit arrangements.  Pressed a bit further, Hart said that 
he thinks it "too late" for a summit invitation to be issued 
to Zimbabwe President Mugabe.  Hart characterized Obasanjo's 
Harare trip as "taking the pulse" so that he would be able to 
discuss the Zimbabwe issue fully with Commonwealth 
counterparts.  In this regard, he observed that it is 
unlikely that current Chair Australia would be making a 
high-level visit to Zimbabwe soon.  Hart said that he was 
well aware of Mugabe's public statements that he is looking 
forward to participating in the CHOGM summit, but dismissed 
these as being entirely for Zimbabwe domestic consumption. 
 
 
2. (C) Hart emphasized that the Nigerians are very aware of 
the potential for the issue of Zimbabwe to dominate if not 
disrupt the summit.  The GON wants to ensure that this does 
not happen.  Hart said that while the issue is important and 
will certainly be an important topic, there are many other 
issues that the Commonwealth leaders need to discuss as well. 
 
 
3. (C) Comment: Hart's views are not definitive; Obasanjo is 
capable of surprising his own officials by independent 
action.  It is conceivable that Obasanjo could be personally 
swayed by sufficient concerted pressure by fellow African 
leaders to do something for Mugabe.  Hart's thinking does 
reflect, however, prevailing sentiment in MFA and much of the 
GON.  As well, Obasanjo certainly does not want the Abuja 
summit to break up in disarray over controversy centered on 
Mugabe's presence, and he is well aware of that possibility. 
We therefore think it likely that Hart has this basically 
right - Obasanjo felt the need for a personal visit to 
demonstrate his conscientious discharge of responsibility, 
but without intent of trying to deliver a personal CHOGM 
invitation to Mugabe.  End comment. 
MEECE