US embassy cable - 03HARARE2268

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Identifier:	03HARARE2268
Wikileaks:	View 03HARARE2268 at Wikileaks.org
Origin:	Embassy Harare
Created:	2003-11-21 08:23:00
Classification:	UNCLASSIFIED
Tags:	ECON EFIN EINV PGOV ZI
Redacted:	This cable was not redacted by Wikileaks.

UNCLAS HARARE 002268 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/S 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JFRAZER 
USDOC FOR 2037 DIEMOND 
TREASURY FOR OREN WYCHE-SHAW 
PASS USTR FLORIZELLE LISER 
STATE PASS USAID FOR MARJORIE COPSON 
 
E. O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON, EFIN, EINV, PGOV, ZI 
SUBJECT: 2004 budget: Quick Readout 
 
 
Yesterday's 2004 budget announcement is more remarkable 
for what it omits than includes.  On almost every 
significant issue - particularly devaluation and anti- 
inflation measures - Finance Minister Herbert Murerwa 
punts the ball to incoming Reserve Bank Governor Gideon 
Gono, who will issue his own policy statement in mid- 
December.  Murerwa said the GOZ "will rigorously 
implement fiscal and monetary stabilization measures," 
but did not spell any out in the 139-paragraph prepared 
text.  The GOZ did not even venture an inflation 
projection, only that it would "dissipate . . . in 
response to [unspoken] monetary and fiscal measures to be 
implemented in 2004."  Murerwa did forecast negative 2004 
growth of 8.5 percent, down from 13.2 percent this year, 
and raise the tax threshold to account for bracket creep 
- a no-brainer given the current inflation rate.  We will 
provide a more detailed budget analysis next week. 
 
Sullivan