US embassy cable - 03RANGOON1512

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 001512 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE ALSO FOR EAP/BCLTV; TREASURY FOR OASIA JEFF NEIL; 
USPACOM FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/19/2013 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, ETRD, ECON, BM, Economy 
SUBJECT: ANOTHER REGIME SHOWCASE: BURMA HOSTS REGIONAL 
ECONOMIC SUMMIT 
 
REF: A. BANGKOK 7434 
 
     B. BANGKOK 7538 
     C. RANGOON 1430 
 
Classified By: COM Carmen Martinez for Reasons 1.5 (B,D) 
 
1. (C) Summary:  Burma hosted a four-country economic summit 
in mid-November, producing few tangible results but 
delivering another public relations coup for a military 
regime in the hunt for international legitimacy.  The Thai 
Embassy in Rangoon says that their delegation pressed the 
generals in private on democracy issues, but the summit 
itself was decidedly apolitical.  End Summary. 
 
The Economic Cooperation Strategy 
--------------------------------- 
 
2. (SBU) On November 12, Burmese Prime Minister General Khin 
Nyunt hosted his counterparts from Thailand, Cambodia, and 
Laos for an inaugural summit of the "Economic Cooperation 
Strategy" (ECS).  The summit, held in the ancient capital of 
Bagan, was preceded on November 10 by a senior officials 
meeting (SOM) and a foreign ministers meeting (FM) in 
Rangoon.  As noted in ref A, the four prime ministers had 
originally agreed to the summit during an April gathering in 
Bangkok. 
 
3. (SBU) The GOB has not responded to requests from the 
diplomatic community for a post-summit brief, although the 
official press gave considerable coverage to the ceremonial 
aspects of the event.  According to our local contacts, and 
the Thai Embassy in Rangoon, the summit produced a "Bagan 
Declaration" on mutual economic and trade issues and a 
ten-year ECS Plan of Action.  The summit participants agreed 
to hold a Summit every two years, and SOM/FM meetings in 
intervening years.  As the inaugural host, Burma will hold 
the Secretariat through 2005 (which includes hosting a SOM/FM 
in 2004). 
 
And a Little Time For Politics 
------------------------------ 
 
4. (C) According to the Thai Embassy, the joint summit did 
not address Burma's domestic political situation (although 
the Bagan Declaration made a passing reference to generic 
ASEAN governance principles).  However, PM Thaksin had a 
working breakfast with PM Khin Nyunt on November 11 and 
reportedly encouraged the SPDC to include all political 
parties and ethnic groups in the regime's road map for 
democracy.  Thaksin also pressed for increased 
counternarcotics cooperation, expressing a desire to "solve 
the drug problem once and for all."  The Thai Embassy 
observed that PM Thaksin's pitch for Burma to become an 
active partner in the ECS was an easy one, noting that the 
Burmese PM appeared "desperate" for the Thai economic 
cooperation offered under the strategy. 
 
5. (C) The Thai and Burmese Foreign Ministers also held a 
bilateral meeting in Rangoon to discuss economic matters and 
road linkages (the latter is a priority for the SPDC and the 
Thai have offered soft loans, but neither side has yet to 
designate a budget).  During their working dinner, FM Win 
Aung claimed to his Thai counterpart that NLD leader Aung San 
Suu Kyi is not under arrest and that the GOB is fully 
committed to a democratic transition. 
 
The Burmese Contribution 
------------------------ 
 
6. (C) The SPDC left the substantive heavy hitting to the 
Thai and reserved their elbow grease for the logistics of 
putting on, by Burmese standards, a major international 
event.  Over 200 officials were part of the four delegations, 
and several ministries--including Foreign Affairs, Defense, 
and Transportation--relocated their key departments to Bagan 
for the duration of the summit.  We understand that, for the 
most part, the summit went off without a hitch.  However, the 
co-owner of Burma's premier golf resort in Rangoon told us 
that an unfortunate incident involving a wayward golf cart 
sent the Lao Prime Minister's golf bag to the bottom of a 
water hazard, where several of his clubs were lost in the 
muck. 
 
COMMENT:  Thai Initiative, SPDC Showcase 
---------------------------------------- 
 
7. (C) As predicted (ref B), the SPDC did not measure the 
success of the Bagan summit by deliverables.  Indeed, the 
only tangible outcome of the event was the apparent signing 
of six "memos" between Thailand and other participants on 
energy and industrial development, none of which are binding 
and none of which included all four of the ECS countries. 
Rather, the key objective for the regime was the Nov. 11 
photo op of three neighboring prime ministers calling on SPDC 
Chairman Senior General Than Shwe, an opportunity that 
provided considerable mileage for the Burmese generals in 
their hot pursuit of international legitimization. 
 
8. (C) Despite the seemingly transparent goals of the ECS, 
most observers in Rangoon, including the Thai Embassy, tell 
us that the strategy is a personal initiative of PM Thaksin 
designed to boost productivity in the "laggard" ASEAN 
countries and to broaden the resource base for the Thai 
economy.  As one Thai diplomat put it, "Thailand cannot be 
well off if our neighbors are dragging," adding that Thailand 
accounts for 91 percent of the combined GDP of the four ECS 
countries.  The ECS prime ministers also endorsed a Thai-led 
tourism campaign titled "Four countries, one destination," 
agreeing to pursue a single visa valid for travel in any of 
the four countries.  End comment. 
Martinez