US embassy cable - 03ISTANBUL1739

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ISTANBUL 001739 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, ECON, EAGR, TU, Istanbul 
SUBJECT: DUZCE: BLESSED BY NATURE, CURSED BY NATURE 
 
 
1. (sbu) Summary: On November 12-13, the fourth anniversary 
of a major earthquake, Poloff visited Duzce, a small Black 
Sea province halfway between Istanbul and Ankara. 
Impoverished by natural disasters and cruel circumstances, 
Duzce is Turkey's newest province and has placed its trust in 
the Justice and Development (AK) Party, hopeful that Prime 
Minister Erdogan and his government can deliver it from 
misfortune.  Judging by the concurrent visits by AKP 
ministers and their reception in Duzce, the government 
appears to be attentive to local concerns, even if there may 
ultimately be limits on how responsive they can be.  End 
Summary. 
 
 
2. (sbu) Poloff visited Duzce on the fourth anniversary of 
the 1999 earthquake that killed 782 people, devastated the 
city center, destroying or damaging most of the buildings in 
the area.  The Duzce quake came just three months after the 
nearby, more-destructive Izmit/Adapazari earthquake that also 
caused significant local damage in Duzce.  As a result of the 
earthquakes and the devastation, a political decision was 
made to elevate the Duzce district to become Turkey's 81st 
province.  A governor and staff were appointed to oversee 
provincial reconstruction and management.  Asked whether the 
new status had brought tangible benefits to Duzce, Mayor Ruhi 
Kurnaz told poloff that it had brought additional burdens, 
including the costs of building offices for the governor and 
all of the provincial bureaucrats.  Local citizens largely 
agreed. 
 
 
3. (sbu) Locals claim that following the earthquakes and 
other developments (see below) Duzce went from being modestly 
affluent to impoverished and needy.  Although the Ecevit 
government, with international assistance, built entire new 
neighborhoods of modern apartment blocks for the earthquake 
victims, the construction process was tainted by corruption 
and has left many disappointed.  The 7,500 new apartments 
were designated only for land-owners who lost property. 
Those who lost multiple properties still received only one 
unit per person.  Those who rented apartments that were 
damaged or destroyed received nothing.  The ultimate cost to 
the new apartment owners is still unclear and none has been 
given formal deeds to new property. 
 
 
Political Outlook 
----------------- 
4. (sbu) With a predominantly conservative and traditional 
population of about 300,000, Duzce has tended to vote for 
center-right and right-wing political parties.  Home to a 
number of different Caucasian peoples, Duzce has one of 
Turkey's largest Cherkez populations (estimated at 50,000 by 
the local Cherkez Foundation), in addition to large numbers 
of Adagians, Abkhazians, and Laz.  Duzce residents are oddly 
proud of the national stereotype that portrays them as 
gun-toting "tough guys" (Note: Muhammed Tokcan, a 
Turkish-Chechen from Duzce, is famous (and sometimes admired) 
for his hijacking of a Black Sea ferry and hostage-taking in 
the Istanbul Swissotel to protest Russia's military actions 
against Chechnya). 
 
 
5. (sbu) Pointing proudly to the fact that in the 2002 
general elections Duzce gave AK 53 percent of the vote (one 
of its best provinces nationwide), AK Party provincial 
chairman Saim Tut told poloff he is confident that the party 
continues to make inroads with the public.  A former Duzce 
AKP founding member (now a village muhtar, or elected leader) 
begrudgingly admitted that he and other older members (who 
had signed on when nobody was interested in AKP) had been 
voted off the board this year in favor of "new, young blood." 
 The CHP provincial and district chairmen, meanwhile, 
displayed to poloff a stunning lack of vision and energy 
(declaring themselves pleased with "doubling" their votes to 
8 percent in 2002), a total disconnect on political issues 
with the local populace, and a fundamentally flawed 
understanding of Turkey's IMF program and economic crisis. 
Mayor Kurnaz (a member of Saadet Party and a passionate 
support of party chairman Erbakan) confided to poloff that he 
does not intend to run in the upcoming March 28 local 
elections (Note: A number of local contacts indicated that 
Kurnaz would be unlikely to win reelection against a strong 
AKP candidate). 
 
 
Land of Plenty... 
----------------- 
6. (sbu) Duzce has some of the most productive agricultural 
land in Turkey.  Blessed with abundant water supplies and 
rich soil, locals boast that they can grow "anything," and 
many non-farmers supplement their income by cultivating small 
plots on their property.  The local economy is dominated by 
agriculture, which, in turn, is dominated by hazelnuts, 
accounting for anywhere between 10 and 30 percent of Turkey's 
total production.  The President of the Agricultural Chamber 
estimated that at least 40,000 people work in the 
agricultural sector.  In addition to hazelnuts, Duzce 
produces significant amounts of tobacco, corn, and cattle. 
Until the mid-1990s, Duzce was also home to over 600 firms 
specializing in wood products, including parquet and paneling. 
 
 
But What the Lord Giveth, He can Taketh Away... 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
7. (sbu) Years before the two major earthquakes in 1999, 
Duzce was struck by the decimation of its wood industry.  A 
combination of dwindling forests and increasing labor costs 
left the local industry unable to stand up to Bulgarian 
competition.  Over the period of a few years, all but a dozen 
or so of the 600 firms have gone bankrupt or moved their 
production facilities to Bulgaria and other countries.  Hasan 
Demir, the owner of one such company, Aslan Forest Products, 
explained to poloff that he had no choice but to move to 
Bulgaria, where his brother now manages the profitable firm 
which exports the bulk of their products back to Turkey. 
Thousands of workers who lost jobs in this sector have yet to 
be picked up by new firms. 
 
 
8. (sbu) Ironically, one of the main obstacles to new 
investment, according to almost everyone we spoke to, is the 
excellent local water supplies.  In the early 1990s, faced 
with severe water shortages, then-Istanbul Mayor Tayyip 
Erdogan launched a billion dollar project to build a pipeline 
to bring drinking water from the Greater Melek River in Duzce 
to Istanbul.  With the project now well under way, in order 
to protect the future Istanbul water supply, national 
authorities now insist that companies building new facilities 
in Duzce meet strict and costly environmental standards. 
Duzce locals are convinced that the new standards are driving 
away potential investors.  Bulent Samli, the General Manager 
of an Ingersoll-Rand (IR) lock production facility in Duzce, 
confided to poloff that if IR had not purchased an existing 
plant (from ITO, Turkey's second-largest lock producer) the 
strict environmental standards would have prompted them to 
look elsewhere. 
 
 
9. (sbu) Finally, even Duzce's economic mainstay, hazelnut 
production, is now in danger.  Ozturk told poloff that this 
year's harvest will be 60 to 65 percent below previous years. 
 Although the decrease is part of a normal, albeit 
unpredictable, cycle in hazelnut production, hard-hit local 
farmers are desperate to diversify their products to protect 
themselves from future shocks.  Here too, though, farmers 
lament the fact that Duzce has very few food processing 
plants to soak up local production and seems unable to 
attract new investment. 
 
 
Pinning Hopes on AKP 
-------------------- 
10. (sbu) Despite the bleak situation, however, locals 
believe that the current AKP government is more understanding 
of their problems than previous governments.  Visiting Duzce 
the same day as poloff, the Agriculture Minister announced a 
new project to give 100 milk cows to 50 farmers in Duzce 
(Note: Ozturk criticized the implementation of the program 
but credited the government with "good intentions"). 
Medium-size business owners told poloff that despite the 
continuing need to apply for government "incentives" (i.e., 
tax exemptions), this government has taken a number of 
business-friendly measures.  Hikmet Keskin, President of the 
23,000-strong Esnaflar (small businessmen) Association (and a 
possible AKP local candidate himself), told poloff that his 
members have continuing concerns, but that this government 
has been responsive (e.g., on low-interest credit, 
restrictions on opening large supermarkets).  Finally, Duzce 
also hopes to benefit from proposed government incentives for 
provinces with an average annual income below USD 1500. 
 
 
Comment 
------- 
11. (sbu) The message we heard from this Anatolian province 
echoes much of what we have heard in the teeming Istanbul 
suburbs: "It's the economy, stupid."  Deliberations on Iraq, 
back-and-forth over education or public administration 
reform, Turkey's on-again off-again EU membership 
aspirations, even the occasional furor over headscarves are 
minor concerns for local residents who continue to struggle 
in the face of economic adversity.  AKP's success here in 
Duzce is more attributable to the party's ability to reach 
out to the people, listen to their concerns, and make 
good-faith efforts to address them, than to any ideological 
agenda.  Duzce residents may not be infinitely patient, but 
for now they have nowhere else to turn. 
ARNETT