US embassy cable - 03RANGOON1488

C O N F I D E N T I A L RANGOON 001488 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE ALSO FOR EAP/BCLTV; 
USPACOM FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PREL, BM, NLD 
SUBJECT: NLD DEMONSTRATIONS FAIL TO MATERIALIZE 
 
 
Classified By: DCM Ron McMullen for Reasons 1.5 (B,D) 
 
1. (C) Summary:  Burma's 83rd National Day anniversary, 
commemorating a 1920 student strike that accelerated the 
independence movement, passed quietly on November 18 with the 
SPDC and the NLD and other pro-democracy groups holding 
separate, low-key ceremonies.  Broader NLD demonstrations 
failed to materialize, despite prodding from exile groups, 
and the regime's intelligence apparatus kept a close watch on 
all pro-democracy activities.  The SPDC released 58 prisoners 
on the eve of the holiday on "humanitarian" grounds, although 
none of the elderly men and pregnant women released were 
considered political prisoners.  End Summary. 
 
2. (U) On November 18 Burma observed National Day, a holiday 
that commemorates a 1920 student-led strike that protested 
the British colonial government's ham-fisted control of 
university-level education.  The strike empowered the Young 
Mens Buddhist Association (YMBA) and other nascent political 
groups, thereby galvanizing the independence movement. 
Although this year is the 83rd anniversary of the strike, 
National Day was not adopted until after independence in 1948. 
 
3. (SBU) On the morning of National Day this year, a small 
group of NLD members gathered at the Kyak-htat-gyi ("Six 
Levels") Pagoda near the party's shuttered headquarters in 
downtown Rangoon and offered meals to local monks.  Later in 
the day, a group of about 100 NLD youths proceeded to the 
Shwedagon Pagoda, Burma's most revered Buddhist shrine, and 
paid respects at a small monument dedicated to student 
leaders of the 1920 strike.  SPDC military intelligence 
maintained a heavy presence throughout the day at the 
Shwedagon Pagoda and videotaped the NLD youths.  There were 
no reports of arrests. 
 
4. (SBU) Also on National Day, the Veteran Politicians, a 
pro-democracy group of elderly activists and former GOB 
officials, held a commemorative event for about 400 guests. 
The Veterans called for the release of all political 
prisoners and a tripartite dialogue involving the nation's 
three largest forces (the SPDC, the NLD, and the ethnics) as 
"the only way to peace and national reconciliation."  NLD 
members who attended the event issued a statement requesting 
the reopening of NLD offices and the unconditional release of 
the party's leaders, exhorting the regime to "avoid 
procrastinating and leading the country into further depths 
of poverty." 
 
5. (C) The exiled National Council of the Union of Burma 
(NCUB), in a November 17 notice, had described NLD plans for 
a "major event" on National Day, including nationwide 
protests.  However, other than religious ceremonies at local 
pagodas, no such protests materialized. 
 
6. (U) On the eve of National Day, the GOB issued a statement 
announcing that it had commuted the sentences and released 58 
prisoners, "taking into consideration humanitarian reasons." 
According to the GOB statement, 49 of the released prisoners 
were females either pregnant or with young children and the 
remaining nine were over the age of 65 years.  None the of 
the released prisoners were considered by the GOB or the NLD 
to be political detainees. 
 
7.  (C) Comment: The GOB's statement also noted that the 
Government "will continue to release those that will cause no 
harm to the community nor threaten the existing peace, 
stability and the unity of the nation."  Observers in Rangoon 
interpret this as a message that the SPDC will only release 
political prisoners who confess to their transgressions and 
agree to refrain from future political activities. 
Martinez