US embassy cable - 03ZAGREB2432

C O N F I D E N T I A L ZAGREB 002432 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR (KABUMOTO) 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, HR, Political Parties/Elections 
SUBJECT: ELECTIONS: NEW POLLS SHOW RACE CLOSER THAN EVER 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: POLOFF A.F.GODFREY FOR REASONS 1.5 (B,D) 
 
SUMMARY 
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1.  (C) SEPARATE POLLS PUBLISHED IN CROATIA'S TWO LEADING 
DAILY NEWSPAPERS ON NOVEMBER 17 INDICATE THAT THE RACE FOR 
CROATIA'S NOVEMBER 23 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION WILL BE A PHOTO 
    FINISH.  ONE PAPER GIVES THE EDGE TO A RIGHT-OF-CENTER 
COALITION LED BY THE NATIONALIST HDZ AND THE OTHER SUGGESTS 
THAT A LEFT-OF CENTER COALITION LED BY PM RACAN'S SDP IS 
AHEAD BY A NOSE.  BOTH POLLS SHOW THAT THE FATE OF SMALLER 
PARTIES WITHIN THE TWO GROUPINGS IS CHANGING.  THE MOST 
DRAMATIC CHANGE IS THE GAIN BY THE EXTREME RIGHT-WING HSP. 
WHILE THIS TREND IS NOTEWORTHY, IT PROBABLY DOES NOT 
REPRESENT A NATIONALIST SHIFT IN THE CROATIAN ELECTORATE, BUT 
THE DESERTION OF SOME OF THE HDZ'S MOST EXTREME SUPPORTERS TO 
THE HSP.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (C) WITH LESS THAN A WEEK TO GO BEFORE PARLIAMENTARY 
ELECTIONS, CROATIA'S SENSATIONALIST PRESS IS FULL OF POLLING 
DATA, SOME OF WHICH HAS LITTLE MEANING.  ON NOVEMBER 17, 
ZAGREB'S TWO LARGEST-CIRCULATION DAILIES PUBLISHED POLLS 
WHICH SUGGEST THIS ELECTION WILL BE THE CLOSEST IN CROATIAN 
HISTORY.  VECERNJI LIST COMMISSIONED A POLL THAT WAS 
CONDUCTED BY TELEPHONE FROM BETWEEN NOVEMBER 10-15 WITH 1800 
RESPONDENTS ACROSS CROATIA.  ONLY TWO-THIRDS OF THOSE POLLED 
SAID THEY INTENDED TO VOTE, AND ANOTHER SIX PERCENT SAID THEY 
HAD NOT YET MADE UP THEIR MIND IF THEY WOULD CAST THEIR 
BALLOTS.  THE POLL SHOWED THAT THE RIGHT-OF-CENTER BLOC LED 
BY THE CROATIAN DEMOCRATIC UNION (HDZ) WOULD WIN 71 SEATS, 
INCLUDING THE PROJECTED 5 OR 6 REPRESENTATIVES OR CITIZENS 
LIVING ABROAD.  THE LEFT-OF-CENTER GROUPING SEEN AS LIKELY BY 
VECERNJI LIST ANALYSTS, LED BY RACAN'S SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC 
PARTY (SDP) BUT INCLUDING THE MORE CONSERVATIVE PEASANT PARTY 
(HSS), WOULD WIN 69 SEATS, INCLUDING THE 8 MINORITY VOTES 
THAT ARE LIKELY, BUT NOT CERTAIN TO BACK THIS MORE 
PROGRESSIVE OPTION. 
 
    3.  (C) WHILE THE TWO BIGGEST PARTIES -- THE HDZ AND THE SDP 
-- ARE HOLDING STEADY, THE HSS SEEMS TO BE LOSING GROUND; 
POLLS SUGGEST IT COULD WIN AS FEW AS EIGHT SEATS.  THE 
CENTER-RIGHT COALITION OF DEMOCRATIC CENTER (DC) AND THE 
CROATIAN SOCIAL LIBERAL PARTY (HSLS) -- A LIKELY PARTNER IN A 
GOVERNMENT LED BY THE HDZ -- IS LOSING GROUND AS WELL.  THE 
MORE LIBERAL CROATIAN PEOPLE'S PARTY (HNS), WHICH IS RUNNING 
IN COALITION WITH SMALLER REGIONAL PARTIES, COULD BE POISED 
TO SURPASS THE HSS TO BECOME THE THIRD STRONGEST POLITICAL 
PARTY IN THE NEXT PARLIAMENT WITH 15 SEATS. 
 
NEW HDZ WING OF AN HDZ COALITION? 
--------------------------------- 
 
4.  (C) BOTH POLLS SUGGESTED THAT THE EXTREME-RIGHT CROATIAN 
PARTY OF RIGHTS (HSP) WILL PERFORM FAR BETTER THAN ORIGINALLY 
EXPECTED.  FOR SOME VOTERS, THE CHOICE BETWEEN THE HDZ AND 
SDP IS NOT DISTINCT ENOUGH.  ON BOTH THE LEFT AND RIGHT, MOST 
OF THE CANDIDATES FOR SEATS IN CROATIA'S NEXT PARLIAMENT ARE 
RUNNING CONVENTIONAL RACES, RELYING ON THE ADVICE OF MODERN 
MEDIA CONSULTANTS.  ON POLICY ISSUES, MOST CANDIDATES ARE 
TRYING TO STAKE OUT THE CENTER GROUND, SHOWING THEIR 
QUALIFICATIONS TO LEAD CROATIA TOWARD EURO-ATLANTIC 
INSTITUTIONS WHILE GROWING THE ECONOMY.  NOT SO THE HSP. 
WHILE IN THE LAST FEW MONTHS THE HSP FINALLY PROHIBITED THE 
DISPLAY OF WWII-ERA FASCIST SYMBOLS, IT RETAINS ITS EXTREME 
NATIONALIST CHARACTER. 
 
5.  (C) EMBLEMATIC OF THE HSP CAMPAIGN WAS THE STUNT PULLED 
BY LEADING ZAGREB HSP CANDIDATE SLAVEN LETICA.  TO KICK OFF 
HIS CAMPAIGN, HE RENTED A COSTUME OF THE 19TH CENTURY 
    CROATIAN VICEROY (AND WAR HERO) BAN JELACIC AND RODE ON 
HORSEBACK TO SVETA GERA, DISPUTED TERRITORY ON CROATIA'S 
NORTHERN BORDER HELD BY SLOVENIA AND ASKED THE BORDER GUARDS 
TO LEAVE CROATIA.  ODDLY, THE MEMBER OF THE LAST SABOR VOTED 
AS "BEST PARLIAMENTARIAN" BY CROATIA'S JOURNALISTS WAS HSP 
MEMBER TONCI TADIC.  WHILE JOURNALISTS RARELY AGREED WITH HIS 
VIEWS, THEY ALL RESPECTED HIS PROFESSIONALISM AND THOROUGH 
PREPARATION FOR FLOOR DEBATES. 
 
COMMENT 
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6.  (C) AS THE HDZ'S RHETORIC -- IF NOT ITS ACTIONS -- MOVES 
TOWARDS THE CENTER, ITS MORE RIGHT-WING ELEMENTS ARE FINDING 
A NEW HOME IN THE HSP.  THE HDZ IS NOT LOSING GROUND, 
HOWEVER, AND SEEMS TO BE ATTRACTING SUPPORTERS FROM SMALLER 
CONSERVATIVE PARTIES (LIKE THE HSS AND THE HSLS/DC) CLOSER TO 
WHAT PASSES FOR THE CENTER IN CROATIA.  THE INCREASE OF 
SUPPORT FOR THE HSP IS WORRISOME, BUT PROBABLY DOES NOT 
REPRESENT A NEW RISE IN EXTREME NATIONALISM IN CROATIA. 
FRANK 
 
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