US embassy cable - 00HARARE3910

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 HARARE 003910 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
LONDON FOR PFLAUMER 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
PASS USAID FOR A/AID R. MCCALL AND AFR/SA W. JEFFERS 
 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/17/2010 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, ECON, ZI, ZANU-PF 
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE'S NEW CABINET: MUGABE REARRANGES THE 
DECK CHAIRS ON THE TITANIC 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL M. IRVING FOR 
REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (C) PRESIDENT MUGABE ANNOUNCED HIS NEW 19 MEMBER 
(DOWN FROM 27 MEMBERS) CABINET CONSISTING OF 19 MEMBER 
ON JULY 15.  A NUMBER OF THE OLD GUARD, INCLUDING WOMEN, 
WERE JETTISONED IN FAVOR OF TECHNOCRATS AND PARTY 
LOYALISTS.  OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE FACT THAT THE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  03910  01 OF 04  171528Z 
RUTHLESS FORMER MINISTER OF JUSTICE, LEGAL AND 
PARLIAMENTARY AFFAIRS EMMERSON MNANGAGWA GOT NO CABINET 
POST, ALTHOUGH HE MAY GET THE NOD TO BE SPEAKER OF 
PARLIAMENT WHERE HE WILL TAKE A HARD LINE AGAINST THE 
OPPOSITION MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC).  THE 
TWO KEY ECONOMIC MINISTERS, NKOSANA MOYO AND SIMBA 
MAKONI, WILL BE ATTRACTIVE AMBASSADORS FOR ZIMBABWE TO 
THE WORLD, ALTHOUGH THEIR MARGIN FOR MANEUVER LIKELY 
WILL BE ABRIDGED BY PRESIDENT MUGABE. THE ONE FEMALE 
MINISTER, JOYCE MUJURU, HAS LITTLE INTEREST IN WOMEN'S 
ISSUES AND PROBABLY OWES HER POSITION TO THE POWER 
WIELDED BY HER HUSBAND, FORMER ARMY COMMANDER SOLOMON 
MUJURU.  THE SOCIAL MINISTRIES ARE IN THE HANDS OF WEAK 
AND LESS THAN EFFECTIVE MINISTERS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 
INFORMATION AND PUBLICITY MINISTER JONATHAN MOYO, WHOSE 
OFFICE'S PLACEMENT WITHIN THE PRESIDENCY GIVES IT A 
DISTINCTLY IDEOLOGICAL CAST.  THE SECURITY MINISTRIES 
WENT TO TRUSTED MUGABE ALLIES.  HOME AFFAIRS, THE LEAST 
SENSITIVE OF THESE, WENT TO A NDEBELE, JOHN NKOMO, WHO 
IS NOT VIEWED AS A CREDIBLE REPRESENTATIVE OF HIS ETHNIC 
GROUP IN MATABELELAND.  SOME HERE ARGUE THAT THIS MIXED 
BAG IS A "PLACE HOLDER" CABINET, AWAITING THE RETURN OF 
THE OLD GUARD IN 2002.  BE THAT AS IT MAY, WE DO NOT SEE 
IN ITS COMPOSITION A SUFFICIENT DEPARTURE FROM THE 
PROBLEMS THAT HAVE PLAGUED THE MUGABE GOVERNMENT TO 
DATE.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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THE LOSERS 
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                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  03910  01 OF 04  171528Z 
2.  (C) PRESIDENT MUGABE ANNOUNCED HIS NEW, TRIMMED DOWN 
(FROM 27), 19-MEMBER, CABINET ON JULY 15.  A NUMBER OF 
PORTFOLIOS HAVE BEEN REARRANGED OR JETTISONED 
ALTOGETHER.  THE BIG LOSERS IN THIS GO-ROUND ARE THE OLD 
GUARD, THE WAR VETERANS AND WOMEN. 
 
3.  (C) WE COUNT 15 LOSERS: FORMER MINISTER OF JUSTICE, 
LEGAL AND PARLIAMENTARY AFFAIRS EMMERSON MNANAGAGWA; 
FORMER MINISTER WITHOUT PORTFOLIO EDDISON ZVOGBO; FORMER 
MINISTER OF INFORMATION, POSTS AND TELECOMMUNICATIONS, 
CHEN CHIMUTENGWENDE; FORMER PLANNING COMMISSIONER 
RICHARD HOVE; FORMER MINISTER OF STATE IN THE 
PRESIDENT'S OFFICE CEPHAS MSIPA; FORMER MINISTER OF 
STATE TSUNGIRAI HUNGWE; FORMER MINISTER OF STATE OPPAH 
MUCHINGURI (WHO MAY BE IN LINE FOR A PROVINCIAL 
GOVERNOR'S JOB); FORMER MINISTER OF STATE SITHEMBISO 
NYONI; FORMER MINISTER WITHOUT PORTFOLIO WITNESS 
MANGWENDE; WAR VETERANS LEADER CHENJERAI HITLER HUNZVI 
(RUMOR HAS IT HE MAY BE OFFERED A DEPUTY MINISTER 
POSITION); FORMER MINISTER OF MINES ENVIRONMENT AND 
TOURISM SIMON K. MOYO; FORMER AFFIRMATIVE ACTION GROUP 
HEAD PHILIP CHIYANGWA (ALSO REPORTEDLY IN LINE FOR A 
DEPUTY MINISTER'S JOB); FORMER MINISTER OF LANDS AND 
AGRICULTURE KUMBIRAI KANGAI; FORMER MINISTER OF HOME 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ7563 
 
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ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   ACQ-00   CEA-01   CIAE-00  SMEC-00 
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      FBIE-00  VC-00    FRB-00   H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00 
      ITC-01   LAB-01   L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    DCP-01   NSAE-00 
      OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00 
      SP-00    SSC-01   SSO-00   STR-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  R-00 
      PMB-00   DSCC-00  DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /012W 
                  ------------------6F0BF0  171529Z /38 
O 171535Z JUL 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6632 
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE 
AMEMBASSY GABORONE 
AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 
AMEMBASSY KIGALI 
AMEMBASSY KINSHASA 
AMEMBASSY LILONGWE 
AMEMBASSY LONDON 
AMEMBASSY LUANDA 
AMEMBASSY LUSAKA 
AMEMBASSY MAPUTO 
AMEMBASSY MASERU 
AMEMBASSY MBABANE 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
AMEMBASSY PARIS 
AMEMBASSY PRETORIA 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  03910  02 OF 04  171528Z 
AMEMBASSY WINDHOEK 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 04 HARARE 003910 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
LONDON FOR PFLAUMER 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
PASS USAID FOR A/AID R. MCCALL AND AFR/SA W. JEFFERS 
 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/17/2010 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, ECON, ZI 
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE'S NEW CABINET: MUGABE REARRANGES THE 
DECK CHAIRS ON THE TITANIC 
 
AFFAIRS DUMISO DABENGWA; AND FORMER MINISTER OF PUBLIC 
SERVICE, LABOR AND SOCIAL WELFARE FLORENCE CHITAURO. 
 
4.  (C) OTHER ALSO-RANS WERE: FORMER DEPUTY MINISTER OF 
AGRICULTURE OLIVIA MUCHENA, WHO DID NOT WIN THE PARTY 
PRIMARY AND WHOSE CANDIDACY ZANU-PF IMPOSED ON HER 
MUTOKO CONSTITUENCY; FORMER MANICALAND GOVERNOR KENNETH 
MANYONDA, WHO BEAT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI IN THE RACE FOR THE 
BUHERA NORTH CONSTITUENCY; AND FORMER DEPUTY MINISTER OF 
MINES ENVIRONMENT AND TOURISM EDWARD CHINDORI-CHININGA. 
 
5.  (C) THE MOST SURPRISING MEMBER OF THE LIST IS THE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  03910  02 OF 04  171528Z 
RUTHLESS MNANGAGWA, WHO SAID HE DID NOT WANT ANY 
CONSOLATION APPOINTMENT AFTER HAVING LOST HIS SEAT IN 
PARLIAMENT TO A RELATIVELY UNKNOWN CANDIDATE FROM THE 
OPPOSITION MDC, BLESSING CHEBUNDO.  SOME HERE SPECULATE 
THE FORMER JUSTICE MINISTER MAY BE IN LINE TO BE THE 
NEXT SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT, FOR WHICH HE IS QUALIFIED AS 
THE CONSTITUTION SPECIFIES THAT THE SPEAKER MUST BE OR 
HAVE BEEN A MEMBER OF PARLIAMENT.  IF THAT IS THE CASE, 
THEN IT IS VERY UNLIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE MUCH 
COOPERATION BETWEEN THE RULING ZANU-PF AND THE MDC IN 
PARLIAMENT, INDEED, THERE IS LIKELY TO BE TOTAL 
CONFRONTATION.  IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT MNANGAGWA 
INTENDS TO WAIT IN THE WINGS FOR THE BIG PRIZE -- THE 
PRESIDENCY IN 2002. 
 
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THE ECONOMIC MINISTRIES 
----------------------- 
 
6.  (C) FOR PURPOSES OF ANALYSIS WE COULD DIVIDE THE 
CABINET PORTFOLIO INTO THREE AREAS: ECONOMIC, SOCIAL AND 
SECURITY.  ON THE ECONOMIC SIDE WE HAVE A MIXED BAG. 
FAILED BANKER (AND SON-IN-LAW OF THE LATE VICE PRESIDENT 
JOSHUA NKOMO), FRANCIS NHEMA, HEADS UP THE ENVIRONMENT 
AND TOURISM PORTFOLIO, WHICH MANY HERE EXPECTED WOULD GO 
TO THE FORMER DEPUTY MINISTER OF MINES ENVIRONMENT AND 
TOURISM EDWARD CHINDORI-CHININGA.  NHEMA TAKES THE HELM 
OF A MINISTRY THAT OFFERS GREAT POSSIBILITY FOR 
CORRUPTION. AT THE SAME TIME, HE FACES AT LEAST ONE 
CHARGE OF FRAUD PENDING AGAINST HIM IN THE COURTS. 
RESPECTED BUSINESSMAN AND FORMER SADC SECRETARY GENERAL 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  03910  02 OF 04  171528Z 
SIMBA MAKONI IS IN CHARGE OF THE MINISTRY OF FINANCE AND 
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, WHICH APPARENTLY SUBSUMED THE OLD 
PLANNING COMMISSION.  MAKONI IS A TECHNOCRAT WHO AS A 
DIRECTOR OF ZIMPAPERS, THE PUBLISHER OF THE GOVERNMENT 
INFLUENCED "THE HERALD," TURNED IT INTO A PROFITABLE 
CONCERN, BUT WAS SACKED WHEN HE ATTEMPTED TO INFLUENCE 
EDITORIAL POLICY.  NEVERTHELESS, HE IS UNLIKELY TO HAVE 
MUCH AUTONOMY TO CRAFT ECONOMIC POLICY, AS THE PRESIDENT 
WILL TIE HIS HANDS IN THIS CONNECTION.  SIMILARLY, 
NKOSANA MOYO AS MINISTER OF INDUSTRY AND INTERNATIONAL 
TRADE (A SURPRISING APPOINTMENT GIVEN THAT MOYO HAS 
ALWAYS TAKEN PAINS TO CAST HIMSELF AS A POLITICAL 
INDEPENDENT) IS ONE OF THE BEST ZIMBABWE HAS TO OFFER IN 
TERMS OF TECHNICAL CAPACITY, GRASP OF THE ISSUES AND 
NETWORK OF CONTACTS.  WE PREDICT HE TOO WILL PROBABLY 
NOT HAVE MUCH OF A MARGIN FOR MANEUVER.  LANDS, 
AGRICULTURE AND RESETTLEMENT MINISTER JOSEPH MADE IS 
SEEN AS A ZANU-PF HARD-LINER WHO WILL TAKE AN 
UNCOMPROMISING STANCE ON LAND REDISTRIBUTION.  HE HAS 
BEEN THE ONE DEVISING THE JUSTIFICATIONS FOR THE 
COMMERCIAL FARM INVASIONS.  THE "PROMOTION" OF FORMER 
NATIONAL SECURITY MINISTER OF STATE SYDNEY SEKERAMAYI TO 
HEAD UP THE MINISTRY OF MINES AND ENERGY, FOR WHICH HE 
HAS NO DISCERNIBLE QUALIFICATIONS, IS A CURIOUS ONE.  WE 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ7565 
 
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INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   ACQ-00   CEA-01   CIAE-00  SMEC-00 
      COME-00  CTME-00  INL-00   DINT-00  DODE-00  DOEE-00  DOTE-00 
      SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00   EXIM-01  E-00     FAAE-00 
      FBIE-00  VC-00    FRB-00   H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00 
      ITC-01   LAB-01   L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  OMB-01 
      OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00 
      SSC-01   SSO-00   STR-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  R-00     PMB-00 
      DSCC-00  DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /011W 
                  ------------------6F0C02  171529Z /38 
O 171535Z JUL 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6633 
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE 
AMEMBASSY GABORONE 
AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 
AMEMBASSY KIGALI 
AMEMBASSY KINSHASA 
AMEMBASSY LILONGWE 
AMEMBASSY LONDON 
AMEMBASSY LUANDA 
AMEMBASSY LUSAKA 
AMEMBASSY MAPUTO 
AMEMBASSY MASERU 
AMEMBASSY MBABANE 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
AMEMBASSY PARIS 
AMEMBASSY PRETORIA 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  03910  03 OF 04  171529Z 
AMEMBASSY WINDHOEK 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 04 HARARE 003910 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
LONDON FOR PFLAUMER 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
PASS USAID FOR A/AID R. MCCALL AND AFR/SA W. JEFFERS 
 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/17/2010 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, ECON, ZI 
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE'S NEW CABINET: MUGABE REARRANGES THE 
DECK CHAIRS ON THE TITANIC 
 
CAN ONLY SPECULATE THAT HE HAS BEEN PUT IN CHARGE OF THE 
PORTFOLIO TO LOOT THE COUNTRY'S MINERAL WEALTH AND SKIM 
OFF COMMISSIONS FROM OIL IMPORT DEALS. 
 
--------------------- 
THE SOCIAL MINISTRIES 
--------------------- 
 
7.  (C) THE SOCIAL SECTOR HAS A COLLECTION OF WEAK 
MINISTERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JONATHAN MOYO, ZANU-PF'S 
SPLENETIC SPIN DOCTOR DURING THE FAILED CONSTITUTIONAL 
REVIEW PROCESS AND RECENT PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION, WHO 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  03910  03 OF 04  171529Z 
HAS BEEN NAMED MINSTER OF STATE FOR INFORMATION AND 
PUBLICITY.  THE MINISTRY NORMALLY SHOULD HAVE TECHNICAL 
REGULATORY OVERSIGHT OF COMMUNICATIONS IN THE COUNTRY, 
BUT HAVING BEEN MOVED INTO THE PRESIDENT'S OFFICE GIVES 
THE PORTFOLIO AN IDEOLOGICAL CAST.  OUR FEAR IS THAT NO 
ONE WILL BE ABLE TO SILENCE HIM.  HE MAY SHOOT DOWN ANY 
GOOD ECONOMIC IDEAS THAT MINISTERS MAKONI AND MOYO MAY 
HAVE AND COULD POISON RELATIONS WITH THE DONOR 
COMMUNITY.  TIMOTHY "KILLJOY" STAMPS WILL CONTINUE TO 
PRESIDE OVER THE DECLINING MINISTRY OF HEALTH AND CHILD 
WELFARE.  IGNATIUS CHOMBO AS HEAD OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT, 
PUBLIC WORKS AND NATIONAL HOUSING IS ALSO PERCEIVED AS A 
NONENTITY.  HERBERT MURERWA AS MINISTER OF HIGHER 
EDUCATION AND TECHNOLOGY PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE IN HIS 
PATTERN OF A DECENT BUT INEFFECTIVE CABINET MEMBER; 
HOWEVER A MARGINALLY MORE EFFECTIVE MINISTER IN THIS 
LESS POLITICAL PORTFOLIO.  BORDER GEZI, AN OPPORTUNISTIC 
LIGHTWEIGHT WHO LED FARM INVASIONS, THE POLITICAL 
REEDUCATION EXERCISE, AND VOTER INTIMIDATION AS GOVERNOR 
OF MASHONALAND CENTRAL PROVINCE, WAS REWARDED WITH THE 
POST OF MINISTER OF YOUTH DEVELOPMENT, GENDER AND 
EMPLOYMENT CREATION, A MINISTRY WITHOUT TEETH AND NOT 
INVOLVED IN POLICY MAKING.  THIS HAS BEEN THE MINISTRY 
IN WHICH CIVIL SERVANTS ESSENTIALLY DID ZANU-PF PARTY 
WORK AND COULD BE CALLED TO ACCOUNT BY THE MDC FOR HOW 
IT SPENT ITS BUDGET ALLOTMENT.  THE SOLE WOMAN APPOINTED 
TO THE CABINET IS JOYCE MUJURU, RETAINING HER POST AS 
MINISTER OF RURAL RESOURCES AND WATER DEVELOPMENT.  THE 
APPOINTMENT APPEARS TO BE A NOD TO HER POWERFUL HUSBAND, 
FORMER ARMY COMMANDER SOLOMON MUJURU, CONSIDERED HERE AS 
A KINGMAKER.  MUJURU HAS SHOWN NO INTEREST IN PROMOTING 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  03910  03 OF 04  171529Z 
WOMEN'S ISSUES AND IS A GREAT DISAPPOINTMENT TO WOMEN'S 
RIGHTS ACTIVISTS.  FOREIGN MINISTER STANISLAUS MUDENGE, 
WHO IS ARROGANT BUT NO SHINING STAR, ALSO RETAINED HIS 
POSITION. 
 
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THE SECURITY MINISTRIES 
----------------------- 
 
8.  (C) THE SECURITY MINISTRIES CONTINUE IN THE HANDS OF 
TRUSTED LOYALISTS.  NICHOLAS GOCHE LEAVES AS DEPUTY 
MINISTER OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND RETURNS TO HIS ROOTS IN 
INTELLIGENCE AS SPYMASTER MINISTER OF STATE SECURITY. 
GOCHE, WITH WHOM WE HAVE HAD GOOD RELATIONS, PLAYED COY 
ABOUT HIS APPOINTMENT WITH AMBASSADOR MCDONALD WHEN THEY 
MET ON THE MARGINS OF THE FRENCH NATIONAL DAY RECEPTION 
JULY 14, AND MAY PROVE A MORE ACCESSIBLE MINISTER. 
FORMER ATTORNEY GENERAL PATRICK CHINAMASA HEADS THE 
MINISTRY OF JUSTICE LEGAL AND PARLIAMENTARY AFFAIRS, 
WHICH WILL BE USED AS A BLUNT INSTRUMENT FOR MUGABE TO 
HAVE HIS WAY WITH THE LAW.  CHINAMASA IS ARGUABLY THE 
CABINET MEMBER WHO IS CLOSEST TO THE PRESIDENT AND IS 
GENERALLY PERCEIVED AS WILLING TO DO WHATEVER THE 
PRESIDENT ASKS.  MOVEN MAHACHI RETAINS THE DEFENSE 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ7567 
 
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ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   ACQ-00   CEA-01   CIAE-00  SMEC-00 
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      SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00   EXIM-01  E-00     FAAE-00 
      FBIE-00  VC-00    FRB-00   H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00 
      ITC-01   LAB-01   L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  OMB-01 
      OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00 
      SSC-01   SSO-00   STR-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  R-00     PMB-00 
      DSCC-00  DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /011W 
                  ------------------6F0C09  171529Z /38 
O 171535Z JUL 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6634 
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE 
AMEMBASSY GABORONE 
AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 
AMEMBASSY KIGALI 
AMEMBASSY KINSHASA 
AMEMBASSY LILONGWE 
AMEMBASSY LONDON 
AMEMBASSY LUANDA 
AMEMBASSY LUSAKA 
AMEMBASSY MAPUTO 
AMEMBASSY MASERU 
AMEMBASSY MBABANE 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
AMEMBASSY PARIS 
AMEMBASSY PRETORIA 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  03910  04 OF 04  171529Z 
AMEMBASSY WINDHOEK 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 04 HARARE 003910 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
LONDON FOR PFLAUMER 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
PASS USAID FOR A/AID R. MCCALL AND AFR/SA W. JEFFERS 
 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/17/2010 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, ECON, ZI 
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE'S NEW CABINET: MUGABE REARRANGES THE 
DECK CHAIRS ON THE TITANIC 
 
PORTFOLIO, PERHAPS BECAUSE MUGABE WAS UNDER NO DOMESTIC 
PRESSURE TO RELIEVE HIM OF IT.  MAHACHI IS NOT SEEN AS 
HAVING ANY POLICY INPUT ON MILITARY MATTERS AS THAT IS 
THE PREROGATIVE OF THE PRESIDENT HIMSELF.  MOREOVER, 
MUGABE MAY NEITHER WISH TO ALIENATE A MINISTER WHO 
PARTICIPATES IN THE ECONOMIC DEALS ARISING FROM THE 
MILITARY INTERVENTION IN THE CONGO, NOR SEND A SHUDDER 
THROUGH THE MILITARY, WHO HAVE LOYALLY DONE HIS BIDDING, 
BY REPLACING THE TOP MAN.  A NDEBELE, JOHN NKOMO, 
SUCCEEDS FELLOW NDEBELE DUMISO DABENGWA IN THE HOME 
AFFAIRS MINISTRY.  NKOMO IS VIEWED AS COMPETENT AND 
DECENT, AND MUGABE MAY HAVE THOUGHT IT A GOOD IDEA TO 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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APPOINT AN ETHNIC NDEBELE TO THE JOB IN LIGHT OF 
CONTINUING SENSITIVITIES TO THE ATROCITIES COMMITTED IN 
MATABELELAND BY THE NORTH KOREAN TRAINED, ETHNIC SHONA 
FIFTH BRIGADE IN THE EARLY 1980'S.  NKOMO, HOWEVER, IS 
NOT VIEWED AS A CREDIBLE NDEBELE REPRESENTATIVE IN 
MATABELELAND.  HE IS ALSO IN THE LEAST SENSITIVE AND 
MOST UNDER-FUNDED OF THE SECURITY MINISTRIES. 
 
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COMMENT 
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9.  (C) THE COMMENT WE HAVE HEARD MOST OFTEN ABOUT THE 
NEW CABINET IS THAT IT IS A MIXED BAG.  IT LOOKS 
CREDIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN THE PERSONS OF SIMBA MAKONI 
AND NKOSANA MOYO WHO WILL BE ATTRACTIVE AMBASSADORS FROM 
ZIMBABWE TO THE WORLD.  THERE IS TALENT IN KEY AREAS AND 
PATRONAGE IN MANY OTHERS.  NEVERTHELESS, THEY ARE ALL 
TAKING ORDERS FROM PRESIDENT MUGABE, MEANING THAT WE 
WILL SEE THE SAME RUINOUS POLICIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF YEARS.  SOME OF OUR CONTACTS FEAR THAT THE NEW 
CABINET IS COMPOSED OF "PLACE HOLDERS," PEOPLE WHO WILL 
KEEP THE SEATS WARM UNTIL THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS OF 
2002 AND THE POTENTIAL RETURN OF SOME OF THE OLD GUARD. 
THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE DO NOT SEE A SUFFICIENT 
DEPARTURE IN THE NEW LINE-UP FROM THE PROBLEMS THAT HAVE 
CHARACTERIZED THE GOVERNMENT TO DATE. 
 
IRVING 
 
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