US embassy cable - 03GUATEMALA2942

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 GUATEMALA 002942 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, EAID, KDEM, GT 
SUBJECT: EMBASSY ELECTION OBSERVATION: DISORGANIZATION, NOT 
VIOLENCE, THE REAL PROBLEM 
 
 
1.  Summary:  Guatemalans refused to be intimidated by 
predictions of violence and fraud, and braved the 
disorganized election process to vote in record numbers. 
Thirty-nine Embassy observers of the November 9 national 
elections witnessed this display of democratic participation 
by Guatemalans who turned out in droves, despite rampant 
predictions of electoral violence and fraud.  The turnout 
(58% est.) is all the more impressive in light of 
disorganization in the voter registration system, which 
caused some voters outside the capital to wait up to 10 hours 
to cast their ballots; the average wait in the capital was 
closer to two hours.  Separating voters by those who updated 
their registration caused confusion nationwide, and had the 
perverse effect of adding to the wait for those voters who 
had gone to the trouble to update their voting information. 
Poorly planned line management, compounded by poor procedures 
to address problems encountered on voting day, caused many 
voters outside the capital to become frustrated; it also 
disenfranchised a number of intending voters, who gave up 
before voting.  EmbOffs did not witness the widespread fraud 
and violence that many Guatemalans had feared.  Instead, 
administrative difficulties at the voting booths were the 
major impediments to voting.  End Summary. 
 
Background:  Embassy Participation in OAS Observation 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
2. Thirty-nine Embassy officers observed the Guatemalan 
elections, under the umbrella of the OAS Election Observation 
Mission.  The Embassy sent five teams to observe the 
electoral process outside the capital and to participate in 
the OAS quick count.  Those teams visited the demographically 
and geographically diverse provinces of San Marcos, 
Esquintla, Alta Verapaz, El Progresso, Jutiapa, Sacatepequez, 
and Chimaltenango.  Twenty other Embassy observers, including 
three EmbOffs from Embassy San Salvador, observed the 
elections in and around Guatemala City and in the indigenous 
communities west of Guatemala City.  RSO provided security 
for the team which visited Escuintla province, where 
electoral violence was expected in several municipalities. 
On Election Day and at an election observation post-mortem 
held November 12, Embassy election observers shared their 
impressions, which included common themes and also stark 
contrasts particular to the sites they visited. 
 
Bad Planning/Implementation, Esp. Outside the Capital 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
3.  While most voting stations opened on time on Election 
Day, the first and strongest impression that struck our 
observers was of disorganization.  The Supreme Electoral 
Tribunal (TSE), responsible for organization and training of 
election volunteers, set up separate voting tables for voters 
who had and had not updated their registration.  However, 
each voting table was designed to receive 600 registered 
voters.  As a result, the lines at tables for non-updated 
voters were short, with only 150-200 people showing up in the 
course of the day, while the lines at the updated voter 
tables often exceeded 500.  In addition, many voters did not 
appear in the electoral register due to computer problems 
with the lists.  These voters were required to seek 
verification of their status from local TSE representatives, 
which were unprepared to deal with these requests 
expeditiously.  Most of our observers reported a generally 
calm and even festive atmosphere.  Others noted a more tense 
atmosphere, with voters yelling at the poll workers and 
expressing frustration over long lines.  Line cutters were 
roundly rebuffed (real democracy in the making!).  Throughout 
the country, partitioned voting stations where up to four 
voters could mark their ballots at one time were too few in 
number and had no screens to ensure privacy. 
 
4.  Outside the capital, polling stations seemed adequately 
supplied but often were not adequately marked.  Signs were 
often not posted in a central or prominent location, and were 
difficult to follow and impossible to understand by 
illiterate persons.  In some instances government officials 
assigned to assist voters were themselves illiterate.  There 
was significant confusion about how to apply the indelible 
ink.  Some election officials helpfully provided tissues to 
wipe the ink off voter's fingers immediately after 
application.  Others apparently did not shake the bottle, and 
our observers and media reported complaints that the ink, as 
a result, did not work.  Due to confusion and lack of 
guidance, voters often waited several hours in one line to 
learn that they were not on the list at the table, were sent 
to other tables where their names did not appear, and finally 
were sent to the TSE office, where long lines and few 
personnel added further to the wait.  Some who put up with 
this returned to the voting booth only to find it closed 
after 6:00 p.m.  EmbOffs estimate that in some remote towns, 
up to 25% of voters left or could not vote because of the 
disorganization. 
 
5.  In Guatemala City, by contrast, most voting places 
finished processing long lines by closing time.  At a few 
sites, remaining voters were permitted to stay to vote after 
6:00 p.m. but the doors were closed to new voters.  The trend 
throughout the city was that the lines and confusion were 
much less than in the countryside, and although there were 
still waits of several hours, all voters were able to cast 
their ballots.  Although performance varied, in general 
Embassy observers found much higher levels of organization at 
the capital's polling stations, which were generally larger, 
with between four and 30 voting tables each.  Some included 
marimba bands and the atmosphere, initially tense as long 
lines formed early, became more festive and relaxed as the 
lines diminished.  International and domestic observers from 
the OAS, EU, University of San Carlos and Human Rights 
Ombudsman's office were present in most capital voting 
stations.  Public Ministry personnel were also visible at 
many voting stations in the capital.  Most voting tables in 
the capital were also being observed by party representatives 
of the five larger political parties, who were generally 
cooperative at the tables we observed.  TSE officials at one 
site complained of delays associated with elderly voters who 
took time at the voting tables to mark their ballots. 
Elsewhere, Embassy observers noticed that elderly and 
handicapped voters were allowed to pass to the front of the 
line by organizers. 
 
Violence and Fraud Low, Despite Fears 
------------------------------------- 
 
6.  Though initial tension and growing frustration with the 
voting process was apparent through the course of election 
day, our observers did not witness any violence.  One of our 
observer teams, visiting Purhula, Baja Verapaz province, left 
the voting station at 6:00 p.m. on the advice of local 
police, who could not guarantee security.  Some voters there 
had begun drinking (despite the ban on alcohol sales) after a 
long and frustrating day waiting to vote. 
 
7.  Our observers did not witness fraud directly; however, 
the general disorganization of the voting process fed 
conspiracy theories and allegations of fraud against the FRG. 
 We heard hearsay reports of vote-buying by the FRG in the 
towns of Rodeo, San Marcos and Villanueva, Guatemala 
province.  In Rodeo, political parties traded accusations of 
selling beer and facilitating the use of false identification 
cards ("cedulas").   A Christian Democratic Party mayoral 
candidate in Rodeo claimed to have received a death threat 
from the Progressive Liberator Party. 
 
Big Turnout Makes Wait Longer 
------------------------------ 
 
8.  Guatemalans refused to be intimidated by predictions of 
violence and fraud, and braved the disorganized election 
process to vote in record numbers.  Observers noted a high 
turnout of women and young voters, even in rural areas.  Some 
voters waited up to 10 hours to vote.  Long lines were caused 
by the disorganized voting process combined with an 
exceptionally high turn out.  Lines were so long and closely 
packed that one observer saw a line of nearly 100 voters fall 
like dominoes after a man in the back of the line tripped; 
the last man fell face first onto the voting table.  Outside 
the capital, where voting peaked between 9 a.m. and 2 p.m. it 
was common to hear stories of people leaving their homes 
early in the morning only to wait all day to vote.  In the 
town of Guanaguazapa, Escuintla province, a man told our 
observers he had left his house at 5:00 a.m., walked 6 miles 
to vote at the 7:00 a.m. opening, and still had not voted as 
of 2:00 p.m.  At 10:30 a.m. in the town of Puerto San Jose, 
Escuintla, voters told us "we have moved 6 meters in 3 
hours."  In El Progreso, one of our observers saw an elderly 
blind person vote after waiting for 3 hours in oppressive 
heat.  A man we spoke to in Iztapa, Escuintla province, told 
us he had entered the line knowing that it was going to take 
him a minimum of 4 hours before he would be able to cast his 
ballot. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
9.  Despite these hardships, voters across the country voted 
in record numbers, reflecting a ground swell of participation 
in this controversial election.  In hindsight, the 
pre-election hype over possible violence and electoral fraud 
may have distracted from planning for what turned out to be 
the true culprit on election day:  the disorganization of the 
voting process.  Our observers have some common-sense 
suggestions and the OAS has already made recommendations 
based on its observation for fixes to the TSE.  With any 
luck, the second round of voting, on December 28 to select a 
president and vice president, will go more smoothly. 
HAMILTON