US embassy cable - 03GUATEMALA2937

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GUATEMALA 002937 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, PINR, EAID, GT 
SUBJECT: INTERNATIONAL OBSERVATION CONTRIBUTES TO DECLINE 
IN ELECTORAL VIOLENCE 
 
 
1. Summary: Protests, some violent, continue in communities 
where dissatisfaction with the mayoral election results is 
ongoing, but violence overall is much decreased from the 1999 
elections.  Allegations of 29 "political" murders during the 
electoral campaign were disputed by international observers 
who placed the figure at two to five.  Even in these, the 
motives were local and personal, though triggerd by politics. 
 Widespread fears of violence, bred by campaign incidents, 
did not materialize.  Ballot boxes were burned in a few rural 
towns by crowds unhappy that they were denied the right to 
vote after standing in line for many hours.  The presence of 
large numbers of international observers, especially in 
communities where violence was widely anticipated, 
contributed to a relatively peaceful election (by Guatemalan 
standards). End Summary. 
 
Heat and Poor Logistics Produce Isolated Violence on Election 
Day 
------------------- 
 
2. While protests against the election results continue in 
some rural communities, the 20 cases reported so far in the 
2003 elections is significantly down from the 38 cases 
reported in 1999.  Furthermore, in 1999 the violence extended 
to relatively urban areas (like Chinautla and Santa Lucia 
Cotzumalguapa), and in 2003 it has been limited solely to 
remote villages.  Most of the disturbances took place along 
Guatemala's steamy south coast, in areas where temperatures 
soared as thousands stood in excruciatingly long lines. 
Ballots in 3 communities (El Quetzal, Cuyotenango and San 
Sebastian) were burned when voters learned, after waiting in 
line for up to seven hours, that they were not registered to 
vote.  Many voters who discovered they had been inadvertently 
excluded from the registry were able to correct the error at 
the local Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) office and get 
back in line, but in some communities frustrations boiled 
over.  In El Estor, Izabal, voters broke into the TSE office, 
and in Chisec, Alta Verapaz, voters broke down doors and 
windows to get into a voting center.  In Chajul, Quiche, a 
voting center opened late, resulting in a stampede that left 
2 dead and 10 injured. 
 
UNE Candidate Shot 
------------------ 
3. Dr. Rolando Morales, a Congressional candidate for the 
center-left UNE party, underwent surgery and is in stable 
condition after being shot twice by three armed men outside 
his home in a crime-infested neighborhood of Guatemala City, 
early in the morning on election day.  Initial reports 
indicated that the motive of the assault may have been 
robbery (the view of a top UNE official), but Morales' wife 
has told the media that she believes the motive was political 
as her husband was carrying nothing of value.  The incident 
is under investigation. 
 
Campaign Violence Bred Unrealized Fears of Election Day 
Violence 
------------------- 
4. Press reports claiming 29 people had been killed in 
pre-election violence and fears that the FRG would stage 
violent protests in the event they lost (like they did on 
July 24-25) fueled concerns that the potential for violence 
on election day was high.  MINUGUA and the OAS investigated 
reports of pre-electoral violence and concluded that most of 
the murders were not related to the elections.  MINUGUA 
believes that five of the murders could have been related to 
the election campaign, and the OAS cited two.  The Washington 
Office on Latin America issued a report on the election 
saying that most of the murders had been the result of common 
crime, a judgement we agree with.  Even in those cases where 
politics clearly was a factor, the circumstances were local 
and personal.  For example, an FRG supporter shot and killed 
an young opposition activist who was defacing FRG political 
posters. 
 
Reports of Post-electoral Violence 
-------------------- 
5. Protests against the results of local elections continue 
as results are still being counted.  No one party or civic 
association has a monopoly on the often violent protests at 
the municipal level so far.  In Playa Grande, Quiche, crowds 
refused to accept the URNG's victory in the Mayor's race and 
continue to stage public protests.  In Tamahu, Alta Verapaz, 
a mob burned down the house of the re-elected FRG mayor and 
clashed with police, resulting in 4 persons injured. 
Siquinala and Masagua, both in Esquintla Department, report 
non-violent demonstrations by GANA and Unionista supporters 
against the outcomes in mayor's races there.  In La Gomera 
(also in Escuintla Department) GANA supporters reportedly 
burned down the voting precinct when their mayoral candidate 
lost. 
 
6. Comment:  Generalized fears that the tense confrontation 
that characterized the 2003 elections would result in an 
escalation of electoral violence proved unfounded. Election 
day was relatively calm and acts of violence affecting voting 
tables on election day or after the votes were counted were 
less than in 1999.  The large presence of international 
observers (over 300 on election day) and their presence in 
communities where violence was expected doubtless contributed 
to reducing mob actions against voting tables. 
HAMILTON