US embassy cable - 03LAGOS2363

UNCLAS LAGOS 002363 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED 
 
 
PASS GURNEY, LONDON AND NEARY, PARIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ELAB, EPET, PGOV, PHUM, KDEM, SOCI, NI, XY 
SUBJECT: OBASANJO SHOULD RESIGN CLAIMS CIVIL SOCIETY GROUP, 
UNITED ACTION FOR DEMOCRACY 
 
REF: (A) LAGOS 2200 (B) LAGOS 2322 (C) LAGOS 2330 
 
 
1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Civil society organizations continue to 
agitate on the national scene in an attempt to realize public 
policy and institutional reform, but have yet to produce real 
movement in that direction.  Calls for protest against the 
upcoming Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) 
appear to be hollow, and possible disruptions will likely be 
minimal -- if noticeable at all. END SUMMARY. 
 
 
2. (SBU) United Action for Democracy (UAD) has called for 
President Obasanjo to resign from office, claiming that 
Obasanjo "has not listened to public opinion" and runs a 
government akin to a "military dictatorship."  UAD has also 
"advised" heads of state not to attend CHOGM scheduled for 
December 3-6 in Abuja, but claims that they will not 
"blackmail" the high profile event.  The group argues that 
Nigeria is not fit to host the event under the present 
administration, which it claims came into office through 
electoral fraud.  It also renewed its criticism of Obasanjo's 
recent policies and slow or nonexistent implementation of 
democratization (Refs A, B, and C).  UAD claims that 
forty-six other organizations are collaborating with it in 
this effort.  However, it is important to note that the 
National Labour Congress (NLC), UAD's partner in the Labour 
and Civil Society Organization (LASCO) in protesting the 
GON's recent fuel deregulation, is visibly absent, as is 
LASCO itself. 
 
 
3. (SBU) POLOFF spoke with Bamidele Aturu, president of UAD, 
on 13 November.  Aturu, who is also the co-chairman of LASCO, 
told us UAD will hold a symposium in Lagos on November 18 for 
member NGOs to discuss the state of Nigeria's democracy. 
Time and venue had not yet been determined, but Aturu said he 
is expecting one hundred persons to attend.  Aturu also 
announced that a rally is planned for December 3, the opening 
day of CHOGM, in the Yaba district of Lagos.  Other rallies 
are promised nation-wide, including Abuja, but plans for 
these other events are not yet firm.  As with fuel 
deregulation, the largest complaint of UAD and other civil 
society organizations is that the GON regularly fails to 
consult with them before it implements public policy that 
affects their constituencies.  They complain that Obasanjo's 
style of government is little different than that of a 
military dictatorship and they have begun to advocate 
impeachment as a means to remove him from office. 
 
 
4. (SBU) POLOFF's counterpart at the British Deputy High 
Commission told her last week that HRM Queen Elizabeth II 
will arrive in Abuja on December 3 to officially open CHOGM 
and will stay in Abuja for the entire conference, departing 
on December 6.  Her husband, the Duke of Edinburgh, will 
accompany the Queen to Abuja, but has also scheduled a visit 
to Lagos.  Prime Minister Tony Blair is scheduled to arrive 
December 4 and will depart on December 8.  When informed by 
POLOFF of the possibility of UAD rallies in Abuja during the 
Queen's stay, the BDHC did not express concern. 
 
 
5. (SBU) COMMENT: Bamidele Aturu, who appeared to have left 
the human rights struggle in Nigeria after the fall of the 
Abacha regime, has become visible again in the past two 
months, making many statements urging civil disobedience.  To 
date, there has been no public response in the form of 
demonstrations or protests on the issues that he raises.  His 
criticisms of the government may have intellectual merit, but 
little application or efficacy in the Nigerian body politic. 
In a society that even Obasanjo himself describes as always 
pursuing "position, power, possession, plaudit, popularity, 
and pleasure", it is possible that Aturu is positioning 
himself on the national stage for self-aggrandizement, as 
well as forwarding his philosophies.  Regardless of Aturu's 
personal motives, the increased activity of civil society 
organizations is a positive sign of the continuing 
democratization of Nigeria. 
 
 
6. (SBU) The non-governmental organizations (NGOs) comprising 
civil society have in general been seeking to define 
themselves since the fall of the Abacha regime.  With the 
menace of military dictatorship no longer looming on the 
horizon, their identities are yet to be solidified.  Although 
these NGOs were able to effectively organize against 
Obasanjo's fuel deregulation policy, under the leadership of 
LASCO they were unable to follow through and effect change. 
While these NGO leaders philosophize and advocate privately 
and within their own circles, their calls have yet t 
resonate loudly among the Nigerian public. END COMMENT. 
HINSON-JONES