US embassy cable - 03RANGOON1477

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 001477 
 
SIPDIS 
 
USPACOM FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PREL, BM, National Convention, NLD 
SUBJECT: NATIONAL CONVENTION: READY OR NOT, HERE IT COMES 
 
REF: A. RANGOON 1431 
 
     B. RANGOON 1433 
 
Classified By: DCM Ronald K. McMullen for Reasons 1.5 (B,D) 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  The Burmese regime is quietly selecting 
delegates for a National Convention, the first step in 
implementing a new constitution, and may convene a body 
stacked with pro-SPDC delegates as early as January.  The NLD 
says it won't participate absent broader negotiations and 
Burma's leading ethnic pro-democracy party says (for now) it 
won't participate without the NLD.  However, many other 
ethnic nationalities now say they will send delegates.  It 
may prove impossible for ASSK and the NLD to influence, much 
less negate, the contrived "democratic" outcome of the 
fast-running SPDC road map.  END SUMMARY. 
 
SPDC IS RUNNING THE SHOW 
 
2.  (S) The SPDC is rapidly coming closer to accomplishing 
the first step in its "road map to democracy:" the holding of 
a National Convention to draft a new constitution.  According 
to a well-placed GOB source, and corroborated by ethnic 
leaders, the SPDC may announce in late December that it will 
convoke a 700-member National Convention as early as January 
2004.  Based loosely on a formula used for the ill-fated 1993 
National Convention, the SPDC in October began identifying 
and vetting nominees for eight "delegations," giving more 
weight this time around to groups under the direct influence 
of the regime: 
 
- State Service Personnel (both military and civil service); 
- National Races (both ethnic political leaders and the 
cease-fire groups); 
- Peasants; 
- Workers; 
- Intelligentsia and Technocrats; 
- Elder Statesmen (retired senior ranking civil servants and 
retired politicians); 
- Political Parties (NLD, SNLD, National Unity Party, etc.); 
- Elected Officials (from the 1990 elections); 
 
CONVENTION DESIGN BY SPDC, INC. 
 
3.  (S)  According to our source, the SPDC is seeking to 
convoke a National Convention that is overwhelmingly 
pro-SPDC, including a 200-member delegation of military and 
civil servants.  In a first, the regime's mass member 
organization, the Union Solidarity and Development 
Association (USDA), will also participate and a 130-strong 
"National Races" delegation will encompass the cease-fire 
groups (CFG) and ethnic nationalities vetted by the SPDC 
(Note: Many CFG leaders are involved in lucrative, 
regime-granted economic concessions. End Note.)  Unlike the 
1993 Convention, the regime will not give the "Elected 
Officials" delegation the power of the pen for drafting a 
constitution.  Our sources tell us that the SPDC has already 
completed a draft and will expect the Convention to rubber 
stamp the final version. 
 
4.  (C) Citing security concerns, the SPDC will hold the 
convention in an old Officer Training School in Hmawbi, 
twenty miles north of Rangoon.  To underscore its 
seriousness, on Nov. 11 the SPDC published an unusual 
political notice in the government daily specifying as a top 
objective for the next Armed Forces anniversary in March "to 
accomplish successfully the seven-point State road map." 
Significantly, the notice also warned that the SPDC will use 
the people's militia to "crush all destructive elements" 
disturbing progress on the road map, an ominous threat to the 
NLD. 
 
IS THE NLD IN, OR OUT? 
 
5.  (C) For their part, Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD have not 
signaled any intent to participate in a National Convention. 
According to UN Special Rapporteur Pinheiro's account of his 
recent discussions with ASSK, the only acceptable road map is 
one that is negotiated between the SPDC and NLD (ref A).  On 
Nov. 3 senior military intelligence official Brig Gen Kyaw 
Thein told the leaders of the cease-fire New Mon State Party 
(NMSP) that the NLD would be invited to join the National 
Convention as a political party.  However, Kyaw Thein said he 
had no idea whether the NLD, which won the 1990 elections, 
would also be included in the "Elected Officials" delegation. 
 
 
ETHNICS PREPARED TO PLAY BALL 
 
6.  (C) In early November, the SPDC extended a National 
Convention invitation to the main cease-fire groups -- Mon, 
Kachin, and Karenni.  All of the groups have RSVP'd "yes," 
but stipulated that they must be able to exercise their 
democratic rights in the process.  In the meantime, the 
leading ethnic democratic opposition party, the Shan 
Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD), says it won't 
participate without the NLD being involved.  SNLD leader Hkun 
Htun Oo, whose party garnered the second largest number of 
seats in 1990, also feels that the road map, as promulgated 
by the regime, does not meet SNLD requirements for political 
progress in Burma. 
 
COMMENT: A MOVING TRAIN 
 
7.  (C) Intent on hosting a glorious ASEAN summit in 2006 as 
an "elected" government (ref B), the regime has cobbled 
together a road map that commences with a showcase National 
Convention.  The SPDC may offer the NLD a deal to bring it 
into the Convention, or expect the party to request an invite 
on bent knee.  If the NLD refuses to get on this moving 
train, the SPDC may feel it will be vindicated in the eyes of 
ASEAN.  Regardless of the scenario, however, the regime has 
no intention to give the democratic opposition a voice in the 
drafting of a constitution.  Once the convention starts, the 
SPDC will control the venue, the agenda, and the outcome. 
Time and room to maneuver is running out for the democratic 
opposition.  END COMMENT. 
Martinez