US embassy cable - 03COLOMBO1974

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 001974 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS; NSC FOR E. MILLARD 
 
E.O. 12958:    DECL: 11-17-13 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, PINS, PHUM, CE, NO, Political Parties 
SUBJECT:  In meeting with Ambassador, PM considers 
cohabitational committee for peace process 
 
Refs:  (A) Colombo 1971 
-      (B) Colombo 1970 
-      (C) Colombo 1963, and previous 
 
(U) Classified by Ambassador Jeffrey J. Lunstead. 
Reasons 1.5 (b,d). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  Prime Minister Wickremesinghe told 
Ambassador November 14 that he is considering proposing 
to the President the establishment of a "Peace Cabinet" 
or "Committee of Conciliation" to resolve the 
cohabitation crisis.  The President would have to return 
three key Ministries, but would have a say, through the 
Committee, in how peace negotiations were run.  At 
times, however, the PM seemed more drawn to fresh 
elections as the way to establish his mandate.  The PM 
will meet the President again this week.  The Ambassador 
meets the President on Monday.  END SUMMARY 
 
2.  (C) Prime Minister Wickremesinghe met with 
Ambassador on the evening of November 14 to discuss the 
ongoing cohabitation crisis.  Milinda Moragoda, a key 
advisor to the PM, was also present.  The meeting 
occurred after the PM's meeting with President 
Kumaratunga (Ref C) and following the departure that 
same day of the Norwegian team which stated Norway would 
be unable to facilitate the peace process until the 
political situation in the South was sorted out (Ref A). 
The Ambassador briefed the PM on the Ambassador's 
meeting that same day with Chief of Defense Staff 
Balagalle (Ref B).  In response to the PM's question, 
Ambassador said that two things had struck him since 
they had last met.  First, the economic fallout of the 
crisis was greater than we had realized, as we heard 
every day of new opportunities lost or postponed because 
of foreign investors' uncertainty about stability. 
Second, we were struck by dislike we were hearing from 
numerous sources for the option of dissolving Parliament 
and calling for new elections.  Many of our Sri Lankan 
contacts believed elections would be messy and violent, 
prolong the crisis, and result in a situation little 
different from the current stalemate. 
 
3.  (C) The Prime Minister replied that he was mulling 
over a new possibility.  He continued to insist that the 
President would have to hand back the three Ministries 
she had taken over.  (He noted that when they met, she 
spoke only about the Defense Ministry, and he believed 
the other two -- Interior and Mass Communication -- were 
not really a problem.)  He was considering proposing to 
her the establishment of a "Peace Cabinet" which would 
have representatives from both political fronts, and 
which would advise on the peace process.  This would 
function outside of the normal Cabinet.  The PM also 
referred to this as a "Committee of Conciliation."  As 
he has before, the PM said that this would be patterned 
after the "French model" of dealing with Defense in a 
cohabitation setup. 
 
4.  (C) The PM wavered back and forth throughout the 
discussion, at times seeming hopeful about the Committee 
possibility, at other times saying that the President 
was too erratic to work with, that even if they pulled 
this off, it would probably break down, and that the 
only answer was for him to receive a fresh mandate 
through new Parliamentary elections.  Ambassador noted 
that under Sri Lanka's proportional representation 
system, the PM's party would likely receive only a small 
increase in seats, and the President would still be in 
place with all of her constitutional powers.  The PM 
said this was so, but that the election would be seen as 
a referendum on his leadership of the peace process.  I 
have promised a referendum later, he said, why not have 
it now? 
 
5.  (C) The Prime Minister and Moragoda said the 
situation could not be allowed to drag on indefinitely, 
and that they thought it had to be resolved by the end 
of November.  The Tigers would be preoccupied right now 
with their preparations for Heroes Day, but after that 
they would become nervous.  If nothing happened by the 
end of November, the United National Party (UNP) would 
have to press for fresh elections.  The PM said that he 
would meet with the President again either on Tuesday, 
November 18 or Thursday, November 20.  (Note:  Press 
reports on November 16 state that senior officials on 
both sides are meeting in the meantime, with one item 
for discussion the "Committee" proposal.) 
 
6.  (C) Ambassador told the PM that he would meet with 
the President on Monday Nov 17.  He told the PM that he 
intended to tell the President that both sides needed to 
work to resolve the crisis so that the peace process was 
not harmed, that the economic impact of the crisis was 
greater than had been expected, and that the issue 
should not be allowed to drag on.  The PM did not ask, 
nor did Ambassador imply, that he would push for a 
specific solution. 
 
7.  (C) It is notable that the President's office issued 
a statement Friday evening which included a comment that 
the President "also suggested to the Prime Minister that 
a committee be appointed to ensure the smooth 
coordination between the Defense authorities and the 
Peace Secretariat."  The President's statement was 
issued in response to her meeting with the Norwegian 
delegation and was clearly intended to defend against 
criticism that she was responsible for the Norwegian 
message that the peace process could not continue until 
the political crisis was resolved. 
 
8.  (C) COMMENT:  There may be a glimmer of hope here in 
the proposal for some type of a Peace Cabinet/Committee 
along the lines of the French model.  However, the PM 
clearly is still strongly drawn to idea of fresh 
elections.  We are increasingly of the mind that fresh 
elections are a poor option.  END COMMENT. 
 
9.  (U) Minimize considered. 
 
LUNSTEAD