US embassy cable - 03ZAGREB2409

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 002409 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR DRL AND EUR/SCE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/14/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, HR, Political Parties/Elections 
SUBJECT: ELECTIONS: OUT ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: POLOFF A.F.GODFREY FOR REASONS 1.5 (B,D) 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1.  (C) THE NOVEMBER 23 DATE FOR CROATIA'S PARLIAMENTARY 
    ELECTION HAS BEEN COMMON KNOWLEDGE FOR MONTHS, BUT THE LAUNCH 
OF THE "OFFICIAL" CAMPAIGN STILL SEEMS TO HAVE CAUGHT PM 
RACAN'S SDP FLAT-FOOTED.  THE RIGHT-WING HDZ HAS A 
WELL-FUNDED, WELL-ORGANIZED (IF SOMEWHAT INTIMIDATING) 
CAMPAIGN MACHINE OPERATING AT FULL SPEED THROUGHOUT CROATIA. 
OUTSIDE OF THE CAPITAL AND A FEW OTHER STRONGHOLDS, HOWEVER, 
SDP LEADERS SEEM TO BE AT A LOSS ABOUT HOW TO GET STARTED. 
ALL OF CROATIA IS AWASH WITH CAMPAIGN ADVERTISING AND THE 
AIRWAVES ARE SATURATED WITH SLICK (AND SOME NOT SO SLICK) TV 
AND RADIO SPOTS.  RELIABLE POLLING IS HARD TO COME BY IN 
CROATIA.  BASED ON WHAT WE HAVE SEEN ON THE GROUND, UNLESS 
MOMENTUM SHIFTS, THE HDZ'S IVO SANADER SEEMS POISED TO WIN 
ENOUGH SEATS TO FORM A COALITION GOVERNMENT WITH LITTLE HELP 
FROM OTHER NATIONALIST-LEANING PARTIES.  END SUMMARY. 
 
JUST TEN DAYS TO GO! 
-------------------- 
 
2.  (C) CROATIA'S OFFICIAL CAMPAIGN FOR PARLIAMENTARY 
ELECTIONS BEGAN ON NOVEMBER 5, WHEN THE NAMES OF LITERALLY 
THOUSANDS OF CANDIDATES COMPETING FOR ABOUT 160 SEATS IN THE 
CROATIAN PARLIAMENT WERE PUBLISHED.  WITH JUST TEN DAYS LEFT 
BEFORE THE POLLS OPEN, ALL POLITICAL PARTIES AND INDEPENDENT 
CANDIDATES ARE RUNNING FLAT-OUT.  ALMOST A THIRD OF CROATIA'S 
POPULATION IS WITHIN EASY REACH OF THE CENTER OF ZAGREB.  BUT 
BECAUSE OF ITS ODD SHAPE AND ITS DIFFICULT TERRAIN, IT TAKES 
SOME EFFORT TO REACH THE REST OF CROATIA'S VOTERS.  LIKE SOME 
OF THE CANDIDATES, EMBASSY OFFICERS HAVE BEEN TRAVELING TO 
CROATIA'S HINTERLANDS TO TAKE THE PULSE OF THE CAMPAIGN AS IT 
REACHES ITS PEAK.  DESPITE THE DISTINCT DIFFERENCES IN 
CROATIA'S REGIONS, THE STORY SEEMS TO BE THE SAME: THE HDZ 
    MACHINE IS IN HIGH GEAR, AND RACAN'S SDP IS ONLY JUST GETTING 
STARTED. 
 
HDZ EXPRESS ROLLS IN DALMATIA 
----------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) MOMENTUM IS SQUARELY WITH HDZ PRESIDENT SANADER AS HE 
ROLLS THROUGH THE CROATIAN HINTERLANDS, PREPARING FOR A GRAND 
FINISH IN ZAGREB.  CRUISING ON HIS BIG BLUE BUS FROM RALLY TO 
RALLY THROUGH THE HDZ STRONGHOLD OF DALMATIA, SANADER SEEMED 
AT THE TOP OF HIS GAME.  IN A TACTIC WHICH REMINDS MOST OF 
OUR INTERLOCUTORS OF THE TUDJMAN AND EVEN THE TITO DAYS, ALL 
OF THE HDZ CAMPAIGN IS FOCUSED AROUND THE IMAGE AND NAME OF 
IVO SANADER AS THE "BIG MAN" WHO WILL "GET CROATIA MOVING." 
HDZ'S RALLIES ARE WELL-ATTENDED, WELL-ORGANIZED AND CLEARLY 
WELL FUNDED.  ALWAYS IN ATTENDANCE, HOWEVER, ARE A LARGE 
NUMBER OF ROUGH-LOOKING YOUNG MEN SHOULDERING THEIR WAY 
INTIMIDATINGLY THROUGH THE CROWD. 
 
HDZ PARTY DISCIPLINE 
-------------------- 
 
4.  (C) VISITS TO HDZ HEADQUARTERS IN THE FIELD MAKE A STRONG 
IMPRESSION; ABUZZ WITH ENERGY, WELL-SUPPLIED WITH STACKS OF 
NEW CAMPAIGN MATERIALS, DISTRICT-LEVEL OFFICIALS ARE CAREFUL 
TO STAY ON MESSAGE.  ONE CANDIDATE IN EASTERN CROATIA TOLD US 
THAT ALL CANDIDATES RECEIVED STRICT INSTRUCTIONS TO KEEP 
SPEECHES TO LESS THAN THREE MINUTES AND MAKE ONLY THOSE 
POINTS APPROVED BY CENTRAL HEADQUARTERS.  THEY KEPT TO THESE 
INSTRUCTIONS; WHEN WE ASKED WHY A FEW TUDJMAN-ERA HARDLINERS 
WERE KEPT ON THE HDZ CANDIDATE LISTS, LOCAL-LEVEL PARTY 
    LEADERS IN DIFFERENT CITIES USED ALMOST IDENTICAL LANGUAGE TO 
DEFEND THE UNEVEN PACE OF REFORM IN THE PARTY. 
 
HDZ ATTACKS HSS -- NO POST-ELECTION COALITION AFTER ALL? 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
5.  (C) IN PUBLIC APPEARANCES, SANADER'S SCATHING ATTACKS ON 
THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT HAVE EXPANDED FROM CRITICISM OF THE 
CORRUPT "COMMUNIST TRAITORS" (AS HE CALLS RACAN'S SDP) TO 
INCLUDE THE HSS.  IN HIS STUMP SPEECH, SANADER NOW ACCUSES 
HSS PRESIDENT TOMCIC OF AGREEING TO SUPPORT THE GOVERNMENT 
BAILOUT OF A BANKRUPT SHIPYARD IN THE SDP STRONGHOLD OF 
RIJEKA IN RETURN FOR A DEAL WHICH BENEFITED A COMPANY IN 
WHICH HE OWNS SHARES.  UNTIL RECENTLY, MANY OBSERVERS HAD 
SPECULATED THAT THE HSS WOULD DESERT RACAN TO FORM A BROAD 
RIGHT-WING COALITION WITH THE HDZ AFTER ELECTIONS.  SANADER'S 
MOTIVES FOR TAKING ON THE HSS ARE NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR; THIS 
NEW RHETORIC MIGHT MAKE SUCH A DEAL DIFFICULT FOR TOMCIC, BUT 
POLITICS HAS MADE STRANGER BEDFELLOWS THAN THIS. 
 
SDP DISCOURAGED, DISORGANIZED 
----------------------------- 
 
6.  (C) SANADER'S HIGH-ENERGY TACTICS CLEARLY HAVE RACAN'S 
SDP ON THE ROPES, BUT THE SDP RANK AND FILE BLAME RACAN, NOT 
 
ZAGREB 00002409  001.2 OF 002 
 
BER 23 DATE FOR CROATIA'S PARLIAMENTARY 
ELECTION HAS BEEN COMMON KNOWLEDGE FOR MONTHS, BUT THE LAUNCH 
OF THE "OFFICIAL" CAMPAIGN STILL SEEMS TO HAVE CAUGHT PM 
RACAN'S SDP FLAT-FOOTED.  THE RIGHT-WING HDZ HAS A 
WELL-FUNDED, WELL-ORGANIZED (IF SOMEWHAT INTIMIDATING) 
CAMPAIGN MACHINE OPERATING AT FULL SPEED THROUGHOUT CROATIA. 
OUTSIDE OF THE CAPITAL AND A FEW OTHER STRONGHOLDS, HOWEVER, 
SDP LEADERS SEEM TO BE AT A LOSS ABOUT HOW TO GET STARTED. 
ALL OF CROATIA IS AWASH WITH CAMPAIGN ADVERTISING AND THE 
AIRWAVES ARE SATURATED WITH SLICK (AND SOME NOT SO SLICK) TV 
AND RADIO SPOTS.  RELIABLE POLLING IS HARD TO COME BY IN 
CROATIA.  BASED ON WHAT WE HAVE SEEN ON THE GROUND, UNLESS 
MOMENTUM SHIFTS, THE HDZ'S IVO SANADER SEEMS POISED TO WIN 
ENOUGH SEATS TO FORM A COALITION GOVERNMENT WITH LITTLE HELP 
FROM OTHER NATIONALIST-LEANING PARTIES.  END SUMMARY. 
 
JUST TEN DAYS TO GO! 
-------------------- 
 
2.  (C) CROATIA'S OFFICIAL CAMPAIGN FOR PARLIAMENTARY 
ELECTIONS BEGAN ON NOVEMBER 5, WHEN THE NAMES OF LITERALLY 
THOUSANDS OF CANDIDATES COMPETING FOR ABOUT 160 SEATS IN THE 
CROATIAN PARLIAMENT WERE PUBLISHED.  WITH JUST TEN DAYS LEFT 
BEFORE THE POLLS OPEN, ALL POLITICAL PARTIES AND INDEPENDENT 
CANDIDATES ARE RUNNING FLAT-OUT.  ALMOST A THIRD OF CROATIA'S 
POPULATION IS WITHIN EASY REACH OF THE CENTER OF ZAGREB.  BUT 
BECAUSE OF ITS ODD SHAPE AND ITS DIFFICULT TERRAIN, IT TAKES 
SOME EFFORT TO REACH THE REST OF CROATIA'S VOTERS.  LIKE SOME 
    OF THE CANDIDATES, EMBASSY OFFICERS HAVE BEEN TRAVELING TO 
CROATIA'S HINTERLANDS TO TAKE THE PULSE OF THE CAMPAIGN AS IT 
REACHES ITS PEAK.  DESPITE THE DISTINCT DIFFERENCES IN 
CROATIA'S REGIONS, THE STORY SEEMS TO BE THE SAME: THE HDZ 
MACHINE IS IN HIGH GEAR, AND RACAN'S SDP IS ONLY JUST GETTING 
STARTED. 
 
HDZ EXPRESS ROLLS IN DALMATIA 
----------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) MOMENTUM IS SQUARELY WITH HDZ PRESIDENT SANADER AS HE 
ROLLS THROUGH THE CROATIAN HINTERLANDS, PREPARING FOR A GRAND 
FINISH IN ZAGREB.  CRUISING ON HIS BIG BLUE BUS FROM RALLY TO 
RALLY THROUGH THE HDZ STRONGHOLD OF DALMATIA, SANADER SEEMED 
AT THE TOP OF HIS GAME.  IN A TACTIC WHICH REMINDS MOST OF 
OUR INTERLOCUTORS OF THE TUDJMAN AND EVEN THE TITO DAYS, ALL 
OF THE HDZ CAMPAIGN IS FOCUSED AROUND THE IMAGE AND NAME OF 
IVO SANADER AS THE "BIG MAN" WHO WILL "GET CROATIA MOVING." 
HDZ'S RALLIES ARE WELL-ATTENDED, WELL-ORGANIZED AND CLEARLY 
WELL FUNDED.  ALWAYS IN ATTENDANCE, HOWEVER, ARE A LARGE 
NUMBER OF ROUGH-LOOKING YOUNG MEN SHOULDERING THEIR WAY 
INTIMIDATINGLY THROUGH THE CROWD. 
 
HDZ PARTY DISCIPLINE 
-------------------- 
 
4.  (C) VISITS TO HDZ HEADQUARTERS IN THE FIELD MAKE A STRONG 
IMPRESSION; ABUZZ WITH ENERGY, WELL-SUPPLIED WITH STACKS OF 
NEW CAMPAIGN MATERIALS, DISTRICT-LEVEL OFFICIALS ARE CAREFUL 
TO STAY ON MESSAGE.  ONE CANDIDATE IN EASTERN CROATIA TOLD US 
THAT ALL CANDIDATES RECEIVED STRICT INSTRUCTIONS TO KEEP 
    SPEECHES TO LESS THAN THREE MINUTES AND MAKE ONLY THOSE 
POINTS APPROVED BY CENTRAL HEADQUARTERS.  THEY KEPT TO THESE 
INSTRUCTIONS; WHEN WE ASKED WHY A FEW TUDJMAN-ERA HARDLINERS 
WERE KEPT ON THE HDZ CANDIDATE LISTS, LOCAL-LEVEL PARTY 
LEADERS IN DIFFERENT CITIES USED ALMOST IDENTICAL LANGUAGE TO 
DEFEND THE UNEVEN PACE OF REFORM IN THE PARTY. 
 
HDZ ATTACKS HSS -- NO POST-ELECTION COALITION AFTER ALL? 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
5.  (C) IN PUBLIC APPEARANCES, SANADER'S SCATHING ATTACKS ON 
THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT HAVE EXPANDED FROM CRITICISM OF THE 
CORRUPT "COMMUNIST TRAITORS" (AS HE CALLS RACAN'S SDP) TO 
INCLUDE THE HSS.  IN HIS STUMP SPEECH, SANADER NOW ACCUSES 
HSS PRESIDENT TOMCIC OF AGREEING TO SUPPORT THE GOVERNMENT 
BAILOUT OF A BANKRUPT SHIPYARD IN THE SDP STRONGHOLD OF 
RIJEKA IN RETURN FOR A DEAL WHICH BENEFITED A COMPANY IN 
WHICH HE OWNS SHARES.  UNTIL RECENTLY, MANY OBSERVERS HAD 
SPECULATED THAT THE HSS WOULD DESERT RACAN TO FORM A BROAD 
RIGHT-WING COALITION WITH THE HDZ AFTER ELECTIONS.  SANADER'S 
MOTIVES FOR TAKING ON THE HSS ARE NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR; THIS 
NEW RHETORIC MIGHT MAKE SUCH A DEAL DIFFICULT FOR TOMCIC, BUT 
POLITICS HAS MADE STRANGER BEDFELLOWS THAN THIS. 
 
SDP DISCOURAGED, DISORGANIZED 
----------------------------- 
 
6.  (C) SANADER'S HIGH-ENERGY TACTICS CLEARLY HAVE RACAN'S 
SDP ON THE ROPES, BUT THE SDP RANK AND FILE BLAME RACAN, NOT 
 
 

 
ZAGREB 00002409  002.1 OF 002 
 
RECEIVED THEIR 
SUPPLIES OF CAMPAIGN MATERIALS EVEN THOUGH THE ELECTION IS 
LESS THAN TWO WEEKS AWAY. 
 
7.  ALTHOUGH HE IS VIEWED AS A CARPETBAGGER FROM RIJEKA, 
    DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER LINIC HEADS THE SDP LIST IN SPLIT, 
WHERE HE WILL RUN HEAD-TO-HEAD WITH SANADER AND HSLS 
PRESIDENT DRAZEN BUDISA.  POLLS SUGGEST THE SDP WILL BE LUCKY 
TO GET A THIRD OF THE 14 SEATS IN THIS CONSERVATIVE DISTRICT. 
 WE MET AT LENGTH WITH LINIC IN THE RUN-DOWN SDP SPLIT 
CAMPAIGN HEADQUARTERS.  LINIC ADMITTED THAT INSTEAD OF GOING 
OUT TO FIRE UP NEW POTENTIAL VOTERS, HE HAS HAD TO SPEND TIME 
EXPLAINING THE RACAN GOVERNMENT'S REFORM POLICY CHOICES TO 
HIS CORE PARTY MEMBERSHIP.  ORGANIZED LABOR -- THE NATURAL 
CONSTITUENCY OF THE SOCIAL DEMOCRATS -- IS BITTER ABOUT 
RECENT REFORMS OF LABOR LEGISLATION AIMED AT IMPROVING THE 
FLEXIBILITY OF CROATIA'S LABOR MARKET, AND CROATIA'S UNIONS 
HAVE REFUSED TO OFFER AN ENDORSEMENT TO ANY POLITICAL PARTY. 
NEVERTHELESS, LINIC WAS NOT WITHOUT SOME HOPE; HE BELIEVED 
THAT CROATIA'S UNDECIDED VOTERS WOULD REMEMBER THE ECONOMIC 
DISASTER WHICH THE RACAN GOVERNMENT INHERITED FROM THE HDZ. 
OTHER SDP LEADERS SPECULATED THAT CROATIA'S VOTERS HAVE "HAD 
ENOUGH OF TUDJMAN" AND HOPED THAT THE HDZ CAMPAIGN FOCUS ON 
SANADER ALONE WOULD BE COUNTERPRODUCTIVE. 
 
8.  (C) IN ISTRIA, IDS VICE PRESIDENT DAMIR KAJIN TOLD US 
THAT HIS PARTY'S LOCAL-LEVEL COALITION WITH THE SDP WILL 
DELIVER STRONG RESULTS IN THE 8TH DISTRICT, BUT WOULD MAKE NO 
PREDICTIONS ABOUT WHETHER RACAN'S COALITION WOULD SUCCEED AT 
THE NATIONAL LEVEL.  KAJIN MADE A POINT OF TELLING US THAT IF 
IDS IS IN GOVERNMENT, IT WOULD VOTE TO SUPPORT A GOVERNMENT 
PROPOSAL TO DEPLOY CROATIAN TROOPS TO IRAQ.  IF SANADER WINS, 
THE IDS -- AND OTHER PARTIES -- WOULD VOTE AGAINST 
DEPLOYMENT, WHICH MEANS AN HDZ GOVERNMENT WOULD LIKELY NOT BE 
ABLE TO DELIVER THE TWO-THIRDS MAJORITY NEEDED TO DEPLOY. 
 
    HSS RUNNING HARD 
---------------- 
 
9.  (C) OTHER THAN THE HDZ AND SDP, WE EXPECT THREE OTHER 
PARTIES, THE HSS, THE HNS AND HSP, TO WIN SEATS IN DISTRICTS 
ACROSS CROATIA.  OF THESE, THE HSS IS RUNNING THE MOST 
EFFECTIVE CAMPAIGN.  HSS PARTY LEADERS HAVE TURNED AROUND THE 
IMAGE OF CROATIA'S PEASANT PARTY AND HAVE A MODERN, 
WELL-PLANNED CAMPAIGN RUNNING ALL ACROSS CROATIA WHICH 
APPEALS TO YOUNGER VOTERS AS WELL AS TO ITS OLDER 
CONSERVATIVE CORE.  WHILE THE HSS'S ANNOUNCEMENTS THAT AFTER 
ELECTIONS IT WILL OPPOSE OTHER PARTIES' "WILD NEO-LIBERAL 
ECONOMIC POLICY" (TRANSLATION: CONTINUED PROGRESS ON 
PRIVATIZATION) STRIKE MOST OBSERVERS AS CRAZY, THE POPULIST 
MESSAGE SEEMS TO APPEAL TO VOTERS.  THE LAST RELIABLE POLL 
PREDICTED THE HSS WOULD TAKE MORE THAN 11 PERCENT OF THE 
POPULAR VOTE. 
 
10.  (C) THE CENTER-LEFT HNS STILL HOPES TO DO WELL IN THE 
VOTING, BUT HAS SCALED BACK OPTIMISTIC PREDICTIONS OF EARLIER 
THIS SUMMER, WHEN IT PROJECTED IT WOULD WIN AT LEAST 15 
SEATS.  THE HNS APPEALS MAINLY TO YOUNGER, URBAN VOTERS; HNS 
OFFICIALS BEMOAN THE FACT THAT THESE ARE CROATIA'S LEAST 
MOTIVATED AND MOST FICKLE VOTERS; BAD WEATHER ON NOVEMBER 23 
COULD KEEP HNS VOTERS INSIDE.  A LOW TURNOUT WOULD HELP THE 
ULTRA-NATIONALIST HSP HOLD ON TO THE FOUR SEATS IT HAD IN THE 
LAST PARLIAMENT. 
 
11.  (C) OTHER FRINGE PARTIES MAY WIN A SEAT OR TWO, BUT THE 
PROLIFERATION OF INDEPENDENT CANDIDATE LISTS IS HARDER TO 
EXPLAIN.  IN EACH OF CROATIA'S TEN GEOGRAPHIC ELECTORAL 
    DISTRICTS, THE 14 SEATS IN THE NEXT SABOR WILL PROBABLY BE 
DIVIDED BETWEEN UP TO FIVE PARTIES.  BUT IN ONE DISTRICT 
ALONE THERE ARE 40 SEPARATE LISTS OF CANDIDATES.  ONE LIST IS 
HEADED BY A SHADY FORMER ARMS DEALER, ANOTHER BY AN 
IDEALISTIC WEALTHY CROATIAN-AMERICAN, BUT NEITHER HAS A 
SNOWBALL'S CHANCE OF LANDING IN THE NEXT PARLIAMENT. 
 
12.  (U) OSCE/CROATIAN HELSINKI COMMITTEE MEDIA MONITORS 
CONTINUE TO ASSERT THAT BOTH PUBLIC AND PRIVATE MEDIA ARE 
DOING A GOOD JOB OF COVERING THE CAMPAIGN FAIRLY. 
FRANK 
 
ZAGREB 00002409  002.2 OF 002 
 
D RECEIVED THEIR 
    SUPPLIES OF CAMPAIGN MATERIALS EVEN THOUGH THE ELECTION IS 
LESS THAN TWO WEEKS AWAY. 
 
7. (C) ALTHOUGH HE IS VIEWED AS A CARPETBAGGER FROM RIJEKA, 
DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER LINIC HEADS THE SDP LIST IN SPLIT, 
WHERE HE WILL RUN HEAD-TO-HEAD WITH SANADER AND HSLS 
PRESIDENT DRAZEN BUDISA.  POLLS SUGGEST THE SDP WILL BE LUCKY 
TO GET A THIRD OF THE 14 SEATS IN THIS CONSERVATIVE DISTRICT. 
 WE MET AT LENGTH WITH LINIC IN THE RUN-DOWN SDP SPLIT 
CAMPAIGN HEADQUARTERS.  LINIC ADMITTED THAT INSTEAD OF GOING 
OUT TO FIRE UP NEW POTENTIAL VOTERS, HE HAS HAD TO SPEND TIME 
EXPLAINING THE RACAN GOVERNMENT'S REFORM POLICY CHOICES TO 
HIS CORE PARTY MEMBERSHIP.  ORGANIZED LABOR -- THE NATURAL 
CONSTITUENCY OF THE SOCIAL DEMOCRATS -- IS BITTER ABOUT 
RECENT REFORMS OF LABOR LEGISLATION AIMED AT IMPROVING THE 
FLEXIBILITY OF CROATIA'S LABOR MARKET, AND CROATIA'S UNIONS 
HAVE REFUSED TO OFFER AN ENDORSEMENT TO ANY POLITICAL PARTY. 
NEVERTHELESS, LINIC WAS NOT WITHOUT SOME HOPE; HE BELIEVED 
THAT CROATIA'S UNDECIDED VOTERS WOULD REMEMBER THE ECONOMIC 
DISASTER WHICH THE RACAN GOVERNMENT INHERITED FROM THE HDZ. 
OTHER SDP LEADERS SPECULATED THAT CROATIA'S VOTERS HAVE "HAD 
ENOUGH OF TUDJMAN" AND HOPED THAT THE HDZ CAMPAIGN FOCUS ON 
SANADER ALONE WOULD BE COUNTERPRODUCTIVE. 
 
8.  (C) IN ISTRIA, IDS VICE PRESIDENT DAMIR KAJIN TOLD US 
THAT HIS PARTY'S LOCAL-LEVEL COALITION WITH THE SDP WILL 
DELIVER STRONG RESULTS IN THE 8TH DISTRICT, BUT WOULD MAKE NO 
PREDICTIONS ABOUT WHETHER RACAN'S COALITION WOULD SUCCEED AT 
THE NATIONAL LEVEL.  KAJIN MADE A POINT OF TELLING US THAT IF 
IDS IS IN GOVERNMENT, IT WOULD VOTE TO SUPPORT A GOVERNMENT 
PROPOSAL TO DEPLOY CROATIAN TROOPS TO IRAQ.  IF SANADER WINS, 
    THE IDS -- AND OTHER PARTIES -- WOULD VOTE AGAINST 
DEPLOYMENT, WHICH MEANS AN HDZ GOVERNMENT WOULD LIKELY NOT BE 
ABLE TO DELIVER THE TWO-THIRDS MAJORITY NEEDED TO DEPLOY. 
 
HSS RUNNING HARD 
---------------- 
 
9.  (C) OTHER THAN THE HDZ AND SDP, WE EXPECT THREE OTHER 
PARTIES, THE HSS, THE HNS AND HSP, TO WIN SEATS IN DISTRICTS 
ACROSS CROATIA.  OF THESE, THE HSS IS RUNNING THE MOST 
EFFECTIVE CAMPAIGN.  HSS PARTY LEADERS HAVE TURNED AROUND THE 
IMAGE OF CROATIA'S PEASANT PARTY AND HAVE A MODERN, 
WELL-PLANNED CAMPAIGN RUNNING ALL ACROSS CROATIA WHICH 
APPEALS TO YOUNGER VOTERS AS WELL AS TO ITS OLDER 
CONSERVATIVE CORE.  WHILE THE HSS'S ANNOUNCEMENTS THAT AFTER 
ELECTIONS IT WILL OPPOSE OTHER PARTIES' "WILD NEO-LIBERAL 
ECONOMIC POLICY" (TRANSLATION: CONTINUED PROGRESS ON 
PRIVATIZATION) STRIKE MOST OBSERVERS AS CRAZY, THE POPULIST 
MESSAGE SEEMS TO APPEAL TO VOTERS.  THE LAST RELIABLE POLL 
PREDICTED THE HSS WOULD TAKE MORE THAN 11 PERCENT OF THE 
POPULAR VOTE. 
 
10.  (C) THE CENTER-LEFT HNS STILL HOPES TO DO WELL IN THE 
VOTING, BUT HAS SCALED BACK OPTIMISTIC PREDICTIONS OF EARLIER 
THIS SUMMER, WHEN IT PROJECTED IT WOULD WIN AT LEAST 15 
SEATS.  THE HNS APPEALS MAINLY TO YOUNGER, URBAN VOTERS; HNS 
OFFICIALS BEMOAN THE FACT THAT THESE ARE CROATIA'S LEAST 
MOTIVATED AND MOST FICKLE VOTERS; BAD WEATHER ON NOVEMBER 23 
COULD KEEP HNS VOTERS INSIDE.  A LOW TURNOUT WOULD HELP THE 
ULTRA-NATIONALIST HSP HOLD ON TO THE FOUR SEATS IT HAD IN THE 
LAST PARLIAMENT. 

11.  (C) OTHER FRINGE PARTIES MAY WIN A SEAT OR TWO, BUT THE 
PROLIFERATION OF INDEPENDENT CANDIDATE LISTS IS HARDER TO 
EXPLAIN.  IN EACH OF CROATIA'S TEN GEOGRAPHIC ELECTORAL 
DISTRICTS, THE 14 SEATS IN THE NEXT SABOR WILL PROBABLY BE 
DIVIDED BETWEEN UP TO FIVE PARTIES.  BUT IN ONE DISTRICT 
ALONE THERE ARE 40 SEPARATE LISTS OF CANDIDATES.  ONE LIST IS 
HEADED BY A SHADY FORMER ARMS DEALER, ANOTHER BY AN 
IDEALISTIC WEALTHY CROATIAN-AMERICAN, BUT NEITHER HAS A 
SNOWBALL'S CHANCE OF LANDING IN THE NEXT PARLIAMENT. 
 
12.  (U) OSCE/CROATIAN HELSINKI COMMITTEE MEDIA MONITORS 
CONTINUE TO ASSERT THAT BOTH PUBLIC AND PRIVATE MEDIA ARE 
DOING A GOOD JOB OF COVERING THE CAMPAIGN FAIRLY. 
FRANK 
 
NNNN