US embassy cable - 03AMMAN7403

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 007403 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/13/2013 
TAGS: KPAL, KDEM, PGOV, PTER, IS, JO 
SUBJECT: JORDANIANS LAUD PRESIDENT'S DEMOCRACY MESSAGE, BUT 
QUESTION U.S. CREDIBILITY 
 
REF: AMMAN 07339 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Edward W. Gnehm for reasons 1.5 (b and d) 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (C)   Despite initial negative press reaction in Jordan 
to President Bush's November 6 speech calling for democratic 
reform in the Arab world, several of our contacts inside and 
outside the government lauded the initiative.  At the same 
time, they almost universally highlighted the lack of U.S. 
credibility in the region as the source of widespread popular 
skepticism about the President's call for democracy.  Our 
contacts say that because ordinary people widely believe U.S. 
policies on Iraq and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict to be 
unfair, the democracy message is falling on deaf ears.  The 
mixed reaction in Jordan to the President's speech suggests 
that festering resentment about Palestine and Iraq will 
continue to color -- and negatively impact -- Arab reaction 
to U.S. policy initiatives in the region.  End Summary. 
 
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BUSH'S DEMOCRACY MESSAGE: BETTER LATE THAN NEVER 
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2.  (C)  Despite initial negative press reaction to the 
President's democracy speech (ref), many of our contacts 
inside and outside the government a week later seem to be 
digging deeper to expound on the positive elements. 
University of Jordan law professor Ali Khattar said that the 
President's message was a surprise, but excellent.  He 
lamented that it did not come 40 years ago, because hostility 
about unwavering American support of undemocratic regimes is 
ingrained in people's psyche and will take time to change. 
That said, in his opinion, the speech reflected the first 
real expression of American interest in democratizing the 
Middle East. 
 
3.  (C)  Journalist and former MP Hamadeh Faraneh believes 
the President's speech is positive because it confirms the 
U.S. intention to pursue democratization in the Middle East. 
The speech lends credibility to the U.S. plan to foster 
democratic liberalization, a process, he said, that has 
already begun in Jordan, Morocco and certain Gulf states. 
 
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GOJ MUM ON THE ISSUE, BUT SOME OFFER UNOFFICIAL PRAISE 
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4.  (C)  The government has not reacted publicly to the 
President's speech, but many contacts inside GOJ circles 
praised the President's message.  The Director of Crown 
Prince Hamza's Office, Hussein Adwan, lauded the speech to 
PolCouns, saying that Arab democracy needed a big push to get 
moving.  He said that an important adjunct to democracy in 
the region would be generational change, and opined that 
Jordan's new, young, and reformist government embodied the 
principles the President espoused and would be the first Arab 
government to implement them.  Separately, the 
thirty-something son of a former Justice Minister praised the 
speech at a post-Iftar Ramadan evening attended by DCM, and a 
lively debate ensued about the possibility of democracy in 
the Arab world and the strength of King Abdullah's commitment 
to reforms that would ultimate limit his powers. 
 
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ARABS MUST SEIZE THE INITIATIVE -- NOW 
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5.  (U)  Columnist Rami Khoury bucked the prevalent press 
line to applaud the President's speech in a recent article. 
He acknowledged people's skepticism: "The average Middle 
Easterner finds little to applaud in American policies 
through the region, so why should we suddenly embrace the 
American call for democracy?"  At the same time, he demanded 
that Arabs abandon their passivity, calling on his brethren 
to take the initiative and "respond more intelligently to 
Bush's proposal.  This is a debate in which we should be 
intimately involved, defining the goals and means as well as 
setting the terms of reference for the debate itself." 
 
6.  (C)  Alluding to recent events in Saudi Arabia, Faraneh 
emphasized that guaranteeing the national security of Arab 
countries and successfully fighting terrorism is closely 
linked to political participation.  Without a political 
voice, desperation among the population -- especially the 
young -- will only increase and provide new recruits to 
extremist groups. 
 
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LOVE THE MESSAGE, HATE THE MESSENGER 
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7.  (C)  In addition to the positive reactions, however, our 
contacts offered equal doses of "constructive criticism" 
about the speech, including attempts to explain the 
widespread skepticism in the Arab world.  Many say that the 
negative reaction is rooted in the perception that U.S. 
motives are both unclear and inconsistent.  They complain 
that the U.S. has supported autocracy for decades, so its 
sudden embrace of Middle Eastern democracy seems suspect.  To 
many Arabs, the timing seems self-servingly expedient, in 
view of the U.S.'s wish to secure wider support for its 
policy in Iraq. 
 
8.  (C)  'Uraib al-Rintawi, head of the al-Quds Political 
Research Center, opined that while the speech represents the 
President's most important policy statement on the Middle 
East since he took office, it was "dangerous" because it did 
not mention "one word" about the importance of ending the 
Israeli occupation.  This would have given the speech 
credibility among Arabs who crave greater political 
participation. 
 
9.  (C)  Khattar commented that the President seemed to pick 
and choose "favorites" based on the U.S. political position 
towards that country.  For example, even Iran has a better 
track record of political participation than Saudi Arabia or 
Kuwait, the former was singled out as undemocratic.  Several 
contacts also reacted with incredulity to President's 
judgment that Jordan's parliamentary elections were 
"historic," noting that Jordan has held such elections since 
1989.  Khattar said the U.S. must avoid politicizing the 
democracy issue if the President is to be taken seriously on 
this issue. 
 
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MESSAGE NOT REACHING EVERYONE 
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10.  (C)  Many of our contacts admitted they had not heard or 
read about the President's speech.  Others acknowledged 
hearing negative snippets in the news, but not paying 
attention to the substance of the matter.  For example, Ahmad 
'Ubaydat, director of the National Center for Human Rights, 
did not know of the speech, but asked for a copy in Arabic if 
available. 
 
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COMMENT 
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11.  (C)  The positive comments from Jordanian contacts a 
week after the speech were surprising given the initial 
negative press reaction.  Even so, it appears that ordinary 
Jordanians -- if they heard about the speech at all -- are 
inclined to dismiss it without a second thought.  The 
exercise also demonstrates, once again, that in the minds of 
most Jordanians, all roads lead back to Palestine.  Without 
at least the perception that the United States remains 
intimately engaged in the peace process, U.S. credibility in 
the region will be weak, and most Jordanians will remain 
skeptical of U.S. intentions in the region. 
 
12.  (U)  Post could usefully employ an Arabic language 
version of the speech to get the President's message to a 
wider audience. 
 
Please visit Embassy Amman's classified web site at 
http://www.state.sgov/p/nea/amman/ or access the site through 
the Department of State's SIPRNET home page. 
GNEHM