US embassy cable - 03LAGOS2330

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 002330 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE, BUT UNCLASSIFIED 
PASS GURNEY, LONDON AND NEARY, PARIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ELAB, EPET, PGOV, PHUM, SOCI, NI, XY 
SUBJECT: OBASANJO, OIL MARKETERS WIN OVER LABOR AND CIVIL 
SOCIETY 
 
REF: (A) LAGOS 2200Q(B) LAGOS 2322 
 
 
(SBU) 1. SUMMARY Labor and civil society have lost steam and 
will not strike over fuel deregulation; however, there have 
been some rumblings from oil sector labor unions over the 
proposed privatization of the nation's refineries (SEPTEL). 
President Obasanjo appears to have successfully stymied the 
strike movement by transferring the public anger over fuel 
deregulation onto oil marketers and threatening to cut the 
National Labour Congress (NLC) off at the knees by amending 
the Trade Unions Act of 1996 (Ref B). END SUMMARY 
 
 
CIVIL SOCIETY BAILS 
------------------- 
 
 
(SBU) 2. POLOFF spoke with Bamidele Aturu, co-chairman of the 
Labor and Civil Society Coalition (LASCO), on November 3 to 
discuss LASCO's future plan of action.  Aturu had cooled down 
his previous remarks (Ref A) and was repeatedly vague and 
non-committal about strike action, preferring to discuss the 
nature of Nigerian democracy in broad terms as opposed to the 
specifics of deregulation.  It is clear, however, that LASCO, 
of which NLC is a member, does not favor strike action at 
this time.  POLOFF pressed Aturu on his previous comment, "If 
Obasanjo doesn't come to the table, we will compel him to." 
He conceded that Obasanjo has not come to the table, but 
asserted that civil society members "are not soldiers and do 
not carry arms, therefore we must use the modicum of public 
opinion.  Once we do this, people will begin to see reason." 
He identified public symposiums and lectures as means to 
educate the people on the perceived ills of fuel 
deregulation.  Aturu renewed his criticism of Obasanjo for 
"putting the cart before the horse" by essentially 
deregulating the down stream sector via executive order 
without public debate, bypassing democratic institutions as a 
mechanism for public policy change, and ignoring civil 
society as a stakeholder. 
 
 
(SBU) 3. POLOFF questioned Aturu whether LASCO could motivate 
the public behind another focused issue, as it was able to in 
October with fuel deregulation. He half-heartedly mentioned 
Local Government Area (LGA) reform as an issue he felt the 
people would rally behind.  (Note:  LGA elections that were 
to occur in April 2002 were postponed to August 2002 and now 
have been indefinitely postponed, causing much concern and 
criticism, especially in the volatile Niger Delta region. End 
note.)  Aturu further expressed the need for civil society to 
continue dialogue with GON officials and the public to 
address the continued democratization of Nigeria, a general 
position that is echoed by NLC officials, showing a 
consistent calculation not to commit to future action. This 
may also reflect the reality that traditional civil society 
has not been able to motivate the public behind one cause 
since the fall of the Abacha regime without the muscle and 
prestige of the NLC. 
 
 
(SBU) 4. J. I. Akinlaja, General Secretary of the National 
Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers (NUPENG), 
discussed deregulation with POLOFF on 4 November.  Akinlaja 
echoed both Aturu's sentiments on deregulation and his 
cautious demeanor. In a meeting on October 31, the NLC 
membership voted not to strike over the issue of fuel 
deregulation.  Instead, Akinlaja, who also serves as the Vice 
President of the NLC, said that labor would assess the 
situation during the month of November and then decide on 
their next action. In the interim, LASCO representatives and 
concerned Nigerians would be visiting each of the 36 states 
to observe the effects of deregulation on the people. 
Akinlaja showed particular concern for the rising costs of 
petroleum products and other basic goods.  The NLC reportedly 
solidified this position in a letter to Obasanjo on 6 
November. 
 
 
(SBU) 5. COMMENT  Obasanjo appears to have yet again mastered 
the Nigerian political game -- at least stage one of the 
battle over fuel deregulation.  He has forced through public 
policy on his own terms and successfully diffused much of the 
criticism by diverting it onto the oil marketers, claiming 
that the GON no longer had a role in the price of fuel.  In 
addition, he was able to prolong political maneuvering and 
lull LASCO into coming to the negotiation table -- avoiding a 
strike and sucking the wind out of their sails.  As a result, 
labor and civil society have not been able to successfully 
rally the public behind their cause as they had done in early 
October. Their continued non-committal pattern and not 
seizing upon opportunities to strengthen their position by 
disrupting high level international events, such as the All 
Africa Games and the upcoming December 8 Commonwealth Heads 
of Government Meeting (CHOGM), appear to reflect a desire to 
not rock the boat too hard.  (Note:  NLC Chairman Adams 
Oshiomole in a press interview on November 7 stated that NLC 
would not target CHOGM. End note.) In essence, labor and 
civil society are talking the talk, but not walking the walk. 
END COMMENT 
HINSON-JONES