US embassy cable - 03FRANKFURT9273

UNCLAS FRANKFURT 009273 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EB/TRA BYERLY, PARSON, FINSTON, WALKLET 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/AGS AND EUR/ERA 
FAA FOR API-1, AEE-1, AIA-300 AND ASC 
PARIS ALSO FOR FAA (EDWARDS) 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAIR, ECON, PGOV, SENV, GM 
SUBJECT:  FRANKFURT AIRPORT EXPANSION HITS SAFETY HURDLE 
 
REF: A) 2002 FRANKFURT 5496; B) STATE 29193 C) FRANKFURT 
01549 
 
1.  SUMMARY:  The expansion of Frankfurt airport has hit a 
safety hurdle:  the advisory German Safety Commission 
(Stoerfallkommission des Bundes), as well as the European 
Commission, are examining risks associated with the Ticona 
chemical plant located near the planned new runway.  The 
advisory commission has hinted that it will approve the new 
runway, but concurrence is conditioned on expensive safety 
upgrades at the chemical plant.  German and EU regulatory 
actions in this controversial case could have implications 
for future growth of hub airports in Europe.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  Now that the German Safety commission has taken up the 
issue of the Ticona chemical factory, safety has overtaken 
noise as the major obstacle to expanding Frankfurt Airport, 
continental Europe's busiest passenger and cargo hub.  At 
issue is the possibility of an aircraft crashing into the 
chemical plant, which is located less than 200 meters from 
the planned northwest runway (REF C).  With no official 
guidelines for this kind of risk analysis, studies using 
various methodologies have produced very different 
estimates for the likelihood of such a disaster -- from one 
case in six hundred years to one in a million years. 
Recent public remarks suggest that German Safety Commission 
Chairman Christian Jochum views the risk as manageable. 
While the Commission's role is only advisory, its findings 
(to be released in December) will have substantial 
political clout.  The European Commission, which has 
jurisdiction under the "Seveso II" directive on hazardous 
chemicals, will also consider the Ticona issue, but its 
time frame is not yet clear. 
 
3.  Ticona processes highly toxic chemicals and has tall 
smokestacks (considered obstacles under ICAO Annex 14). 
Relocating the plant would cost 1.3 billion euros, a sum 
beyond the airport's means.  Airport management (Fraport) 
was slow to realize that the Ticona issue could delay or 
even block airport expansion but has recently offered to 
fund improved safety at the chemical plant.  Fraport would 
also pay to move fuel tanks and a power plant outside the 
range of the new runway. 
 
4.  COMMENT:  The Safety Commission's work so far points to 
a compromise solution in which regulators would adopt a 
middle-range risk estimate, and Fraport would agree to fund 
safety upgrades to limit the damage from a crash.  Such a 
compromise could set the stage for European Commission 
approval.  The safety commission is an independent advisor 
to the German Environment Ministry, whose State Secretary, 
Margareta Wolf (Greens), visited Ticona in September and 
said the proposed runway is too close to be safe.  (The 
German Transportation Ministry is more supportive of 
expansion).  Expansion opponents and supporters alike are 
now focused on the Ticona problem, and Fraport officials 
admit privately that 2006 is unrealistic for the opening of 
the new runway. 
 
5.  The Fraport/Ticona case could have significant 
implications for air traffic in Europe and for the future 
expansion of other hub airports in crowded urban areas. 
The new runway would allow Fraport to increase aircraft 
movements by 50 percent (to 120 per hour) and boost annual 
capacity by 25 million passengers, but the chemical factory 
is inside the runway's safety perimeter and too expensive 
to relocate.  Faced with this conflict, it is German and 
European public safety regulators who will determine future 
expansion at Frankfurt.  END COMMENT. 
 
BODDE