US embassy cable - 03GUATEMALA2871

C O N F I D E N T I A L GUATEMALA 002871 
 
SIPDIS 
 
EMBASSY SAN JOSE FOR WHA/DAS DAN FISK 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/10/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, KDEM, EAID, GT 
SUBJECT: BERGER AND COLOM WIN FIRST ROUND OF GUATEMALAN 
ELECTIONS 
 
Classified By: PolCouns David Lindwall for reason 1.5 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (U) At 0630 hrs local time on November 10, the Supreme 
Electoral Tribunal announced preliminary results of the 
national elections.  With 21% of voting tables reporting, 
GANA presidential candidate Oscar Berger is ahead with 47.7% 
of the vote, followed by UNE candidate Alvaro Colom with 
26.4%.  FRG candidate Efrain Rios Montt came in third with 
11.2%.  Berger won overwhelmingly in Guatemala City, and 
Colom was the favorite in the Mayan indigenous provinces of 
western Guatemala. These early results are heavily 
urban-weighted and may well change as more vote counts come 
in from rural areas. 
 
2. (U) With 97% of tables in the Department of Guatemala 
reporting, former Mayor of Guatemala City Oscar Berger 
received 49% of the vote.  UNE candidate Colom received 27% 
and FRG candidate Rios Montt received 11%.  Former President 
Alvaro Arzu is ahead for Mayor of Guatemala City with 34% of 
the vote, followed by GANA candidate Jorge Briz with 24% and 
FRG candidate Luis Rabbe with 18%. 
 
3. (C) The OAS quick count (which was given to us against the 
instructions of the EOM chief -- please protect) also ranked 
Berger and Colom as the two candidates who would advance to 
the second round, but gave them different percentages, with 
GANA candidate Berger obtaining 36.3%, UNE's Colom drawing 
26.5% and FRG candidate Rios Montt trailing with 18.0% of the 
vote.  The domestic observation mission Mirador Electoral 
quick count (also given to us in strict confidence against 
Mirador's decision to release only to the TSE -- please 
protect) shows similar trends, with Berger getting 35.7% of 
the vote, followed by Colom with 27.5% and the FRG with 
17.8%.  Once the TSE has more results from rural areas, we 
expect the final vote count results to be closer to the quick 
count results. 
 
4. (U) The OAS Election Observation Mission issued a press 
statement in the early hours of November 10 noting that the 
elections were characterized by significant citizen 
participation, despite problems with the organization and 
administration of the elections.  It said the most salient 
observation on the election was "the firm will of the 
population to strengthen the country's institutionality 
through the democratic mechanisms that are promoted and 
defended by the international community."  The OAS laments 
the isolated acts of violence that marred the elections in 
some communities, and notes that the massive voter turnout 
overwhelmed the logistical and organizational arrangements to 
allow citizens to vote.  No evaluation is made on the results 
of the election, saying that the OAS will withhold judgment 
until the Supreme Electoral Tribunal has spoken and any 
challenges are presented.  The OAS statement closes by 
"highlighting the committed attitude of the voters, who went 
to the polls in massive numbers, in a clear demonstration of 
the commitment of the Guatemalan people with democracy.  This 
is even more significant, taking into account the violence 
and political confrontation that have accompanied this 
process since the convocation of elections." 
 
5. (C) Privately, and although they are withholding final 
judgment for the moment, none of the ranking OAS, EU or 
Mirador Electoral officials expect logistical problems or 
problems of violence in some localities to change the 
preliminary results as reported above. 
 
6. (U) It is also worth noting that the fears of Guatemala's 
opposition press and civil society -- that gangs tied to the 
ruling FRG would engage in violence to keep the vote down; 
that ex-PACs would block major highways and access to voting 
centers; that the FRG would tie up access to public 
transportation; to name just the most salient conspiracy 
theories -- did not come to pass. 
HAMILTON