US embassy cable - 03ZAGREB2381

C O N F I D E N T I A L  ZAGREB 002381 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
EUR/SCE FOR KABUMOTO 
USOSCE FOR HELWIG 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/06/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, HR, Political Parties/Elections 
SUBJECT: ELECTIONS:  "OFFICIAL" CAMPAIGN BEGINS - BLEAK 
FORECASTS FOR RACAN COALITION 
 
 
Classified By: Poloff A.F.Godfrey for reasons 1.5 (b,d) 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
1.  (C) On November 6, Croatia's State Electoral Commission 
published the approved lists of candidates for the November 
23 parliamentary election.  This act serves as the official 
starting gun for the formal campaign, which means rules 
governing equal access to state media now apply.  Polls 
suggest that the parties which made up the Racan government 
are in trouble.  While the election will be very close, a 
coalition led by the right-wing HDZ may win enough seats to 
form a government.  End Summary. 
 
Five Thousand Candidates for 160 Seats 
-------------------------------------- 
 
2. (C) Political parties and independent candidates had until 
midnight of November 3 to submit lists of candidates to 
Croatia's State Electoral Commission (SEC) in order to 
participate in upcoming elections.  After a 48-hour review 
period, the SEC released the names of more than 5,000 
candidates who will compete for seats in Croatia's next 
parliament.  Each list for the ten geographical electoral 
districts and the one "diaspora" list contained fourteen 
names.  While it is relatively easy to have a list approved 
by the SEC (in the central Zagreb district, voters will be 
confronted with 40 different lists), a list must receive at 
least five percent of the vote to qualify to divide the 14 
seats in an electoral district. 
 
SDP Helping Friends in Need 
--------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) The candidate lists reflect last-minute coalitions 
between the coalition-leading Social Democratic Party (SDP) 
and two smaller parties which had been faithful members of PM 
Racan's reform government.  Racan (as president of the SDP) 
ceded spots high on his party's list to members of the 
Liberal Party (LS) and the Libra party.  Igor Dragovan, 
Secretary General of the SDP, told us his party expected 
 
SIPDIS 
little return in terms of votes, but was taking the step in 
order to ensure that a "liberal option" was preserved as a 
parliamentary party in the next Sabor. 
 
HDZ Candidates Include Nationalist Dinosaurs... 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
4.  (C) Croatia's two largest parties, the SDP and the 
right-wing nationalist HDZ followed through on pledges to 
shake up their parliamentary delegations.  Less than half of 
the MP's in their current parliamentary caucuses made the 
lists for this election.  HDZ President Sanader told the 
Ambassador the makeup of their list would demonstrate that 
the HDZ has become a modern, democratic party.  But in fact, 
while there are many new names, the HDZ has placed high on 
their lists individuals who epitomize the worst stereotypes 
of the Tudjman era abuses, including a suspected war criminal 
(Branimir Glavas), an active opponent of refugee return 
(Zadar Governor Sime Prtenjaca) and a kleptocrat (HDZ caucus 
whip Vladimir Seks). 
 
SDP Turns to WWF for Name Recognition 
------------------------------------- 
 
5.  (C) SDP leaders told us they planned to get rid of MP's 
who made insufficient substantive contributions to the work 
of the last parliament and to professionalize their caucus. 
But they placed Mirko Filipovic, a champion of the brutal 
sport called "ultimate fight" most popular in Japan (where he 
is known by the nom de guerre "Cro-Cop"), high on their list 
for the Zagreb city district.  Filipovic, who has no 
background in politics, may add name recognition to the SDP, 
but he will surely alienate the urban, educated voters which 
make up the core of the SDP. 
 
Polls Show HDZ Could Form Government 
------------------------------------ 
 
6.  (C) Because of differences in polling techniques (and 
levels of professionalism), opinion poll results in the 
Croatian press can vary by as much as 20 percent.  However, 
all show that the HDZ is holding its commanding lead as the 
largest individual party.  We met on November 7 with the 
directors of Croatia's most reliable polling firm.  They said 
that the HDZ continues to poll at 28 percent, with the SDP 
and its election partners trailing far behind at 19 percent. 
The HSS will continue to play the role of "kingmaker" and is 
polling at a solid 11 percent.  HNS is slipping, and now 
barely polls at eight percent. 
 
7.  (C) The percentage of voters who say they intend to vote 
but are still undecided is now only 12 percent; this figure 
continues to shrink as the date for elections approaches. 
IRI pollsters told us that a low turnout would favor the HDZ; 
with turnout now predicted at only 65 percent, the SDP and 
its partners need to work harder to get out the vote.  As it 
stands now, if the other right-wing parties which would be 
likely coalition partners for the HDZ (including the extreme 
nationalist Croatian Party of Rights - HSP) continue to hold 
their ground, the HDZ could win enough seats in parliament to 
form a coalition government with a slim majority. 
 
Coalition Parties Holding on to Hope 
------------------------------------ 
 
8.  (C) The parties which formed the Racan government have 
not given up hope.  HNS Secretary General Boris Blazejkovic 
told us that his party's polling numbers are infuriatingly 
variable, since they rely on the urban youth vote which is 
least likely to turn out for elections.  SDP leaders admit 
that this will be a tight race, but express confidence that 
Croatian voters will remember the dreadful state of the 
country's economy when the SDP-led government took office 
three years ago. 
 
Electoral Process Efficient, Transparent 
---------------------------------------- 
 
9.  (C) Despite the closeness of the race, all of its 
contestants seem to be playing by the rules.  All of the 
election deadlines have been met, and OSCE's long-term 
observers are being granted access to all levels of the 
process.  Croatia's SEC allows NGO monitors to attend all of 
its sessions and publishes all decisions immediately on a 
modern website.  The Croatian Helsinki Commission (tasked by 
OSCE to conduct media monitoring) reported to the press on 
November 5 that the campaign has been portrayed by the media 
in a "fair and balanced" manner. 
FRANK 
 
 
NNNN