US embassy cable - 03COLOMBO1930

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 COLOMBO 001930 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR D, SA, SA/INS, SA/PD, S/CT; DS/DSS/ITA; 
DS/IP/NEA/SA; NSC FOR E. MILLARD 
 
PLEASE ALSO PASS TOPEC 
 
E.O. 12958:   DECL: 11-07-13 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, PTER, ASEC, CASC, CE, LTTE - Peace Process 
SUBJECT:  Sri Lanka Update:  PM returns; President 
slated to give speech; Tigers again voice concerns 
 
Refs:  Colombo 1927, and previous 
 
(U) Classified by Charge' d' Affaires James F. 
Entwistle.  Reasons 1.5 (b,d). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  To a rapturous welcome, Prime Minister 
Ranil Wickremesinghe returned to Colombo from the U.S. 
on the morning of November 7.  Contacts have told 
Mission that the UNP government and its allies are 
continuing to closely consult on how to proceed in 
response to the President's sudden November 4-5 actions. 
For her part, President Kumaratunga is scheduled to give 
another televised address to the country late 
November 7.  There are reports that her declaration of a 
state of emergency may be withdrawn soon, but that is 
not confirmed.  In other developments, the radical JVP 
party is rallying around the President even as the LTTE 
continues to emit low volume, but clear signals of 
discomfort about her moves.  With dueling rallies under 
way in the capital, RSO continues to monitor the 
situation.  Although the battle between the President 
and the PM is shaping up to be a long war of attrition, 
the next few days are bound to be crucial.  END SUMMARY. 
 
====================================== 
PM RETURNS AS UNP CONSIDERS NEXT STEPS 
====================================== 
 
2.  (SBU) To a rapturous welcome from his party, Prime 
Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe returned to Colombo from 
the U.S. on the morning of November 7.  Surrounded by 
MPs, other dignitaries, including saffron clad Buddhist 
monks, and a huge crowd of supporters (estimated to be 
over 10,000-strong), the PM gave a brief speech covered 
live by state and independent television.  In his brief 
remarks, which took place just outside the airport 
premises, he stated in forceful tones that the United 
National Party (UNP) government's majority "remained 
intact" and that Parliament needed to reconvene 
"immediately" in order to attend to the "country's 
urgent business."  Continuing, Wickremesinghe said his 
government had been "given a mandate by the people" and 
that that mandate "would not be betrayed."  Further, the 
PM noted, the main task now was "to get the peace 
process back on track." 
 
3.  (SBU) As of mid-day November 7, the PM was slowly 
proceeding in a motorcade south from the airport area 
toward Colombo.  On the way, he is stopping at various 
rallies organized by his many supporters in this area 
north of Colombo, which is referred to as the "Christian 
belt."  The major MP in this area is John Amaratunga, 
the sacked Interior Minister, who is considered the most 
prominent Catholic politician in the country (he remains 
the Minister for Christian Affairs).  Once in Colombo, 
the PM's supporters have several rallies planned.  The 
PM is then scheduled to return to Temple Trees, his 
official residence in Colombo just down the street from 
the Embassy. 
 
4.  (C) As they awaited the PM's return, UNP officials 
have kept up a steady drumbeat of criticism of President 
Kumaratunga and her November 4-5 actions (see Reftels). 
In remarks made late November 6, G.L. Peiris, a key 
government minister and the UNP spokesman, characterized 
President Kumaratunga's actions as "undemocratic, 
unconstitutional, and against the will of the people." 
Further, Peiris called on the President to reconvene 
Parliament immediately, as well as to reinstate the 
sacked interior, defense, and mass communications 
ministers.  In his attacks on the President, Peiris 
asserted that the country's economy was suffering 
because of her moves.  He then claimed that the U.S. had 
been willing to sign a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with 
the GSL during the PM's visit to Washington, but had 
decided not to because of the tumult in Sri Lanka 
sparked by the President's actions.  When queried by the 
press, Mission denied that a FTA was about to be signed. 
Mission noted, however, that free trade remained a topic 
of discussion between the U.S. and the GSL.  (In a late 
November 6 conversation with the Charge', Peiris 
admitted his erroneous assertion about the FTA had been 
a mistake uttered in the heat of the moment). 
 
5.  (SBU) In terms of next steps, contacts have told 
Mission that the UNP and its allies are continuing to 
closely consult on how to proceed.  Some in the UNP want 
to press forward against Kumaratunga by launching an 
all-out program of rallies and demonstrations.  There 
are some concerns, however, that such an effort might 
violate emergency regulations (see below for more on the 
state of emergency).  In the meantime, other contacts 
have told us that the PM is keen to ensure that MPs who 
are supporting the governing coalition now remain on 
board and do not cross over suddenly to the President, 
who is encouraging defections.  There are few 
indications that she is having any success in doing 
this, thus far (see Reftels).  As flagged by Peiris in 
his remarks, one tack the UNP is taking is to demand the 
immediate reconvening of Parliament, which was suspended 
by act of the President on November 5.  The UNP- 
dominated Cabinet sent a letter to J.M. Perera, Speaker 
of the Parliament and a senior UNP MP, requesting this. 
The Speaker is likely to meet with the Prime Minister 
and Cabinet officials late November 7. 
 
================================ 
PRESIDENT SLATED TO GIVE ADDRESS 
================================ 
 
6.  (C) For her part, the President is reportedly 
planning to give a televised address late November 7. 
It is not clear what she will say new, or whether it 
will simply be a rehash of her November 4 nationally 
televised address (see Reftels).  In addition, various 
reports continue to trickle in indicating that the state 
of emergency declared by the President may be lifted as 
early as November 7, although this has yet to be 
confirmed.  On November 6, President Kumaratunga 
convened a meeting of the National Security Council, the 
first since her November 4 dismissal of the Defense 
Minister.  Service commanders from the Sri Lanka Army, 
Navy and Air Force attended the meeting at which the 
President discussed the current security situation.  On 
November 6, Kumaratunga also telephoned Indian Prime 
Minister Vajpayee and reviewed her recent actions. 
Taranjit Sandhu, the Indian High Commission political 
counselor, told polchief that the call went well, with 
Vajpayee underscoring the need for the President to work 
with PM Wickremesinghe, and to maintain focus on the 
peace process. 
 
====================================== 
RADICAL PARTY RALLIES BEHIND PRESIDENT 
====================================== 
 
7.  (SBU) In other developments, the radical Marxist 
Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) has come out strongly in 
favor of the President's actions.  On November 5, Tilvin 
Silva, JVP General Secretary, stated that "President 
Kumaratunga has not created a crisis, but has saved the 
country from disaster."  Silva also said that his party 
"extended its full support" to her at this time.  The 
JVP has also stated that it will oppose the UNP-led 
impeachment motion against Supreme Court Chief Justice 
Sarath Silva, who is widely seen as a crony of the 
President's by the UNP and neutral observers.  In a 
related development, a rally led by the "National 
Patriotic Movement" -- a recently formed umbrella group 
which includes the JVP and elements of the President's 
Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) -- plans to hold a rally 
in Colombo on November 7.  The rally had originally been 
planned to protest against the recently- released 
Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) counterproposals 
on forming a north/east interim administration, it is 
now focused on demonstrating in favor of the President's 
actions. 
 
=================================== 
TIGERS CONTINUE TO REACT NEGATIVELY 
=================================== 
 
8.  (C) While there has so far been little public 
reaction from the LTTE, the pro-Tiger website "TamilNet" 
has carried several reports critical of the President's 
moves.  On November 7, TamilNet carried a long article 
quoting eastern Tiger military commander Karuna in which 
this major LTTE official stated that President 
Kumaratunga had "sabotaged the peace process at a 
crucial time," and that "no one in the world expected 
her to behave like this at this juncture."  Asserting 
that LTTE leader V. Prabakharan had "remained 
judiciously silent," Karuna noted that "there is no need 
for us to feel agitated over anything because we are 
strong."  In another, very unusual TamilNet article on 
November 6, the death of an LTTE cadre in the eastern 
town of Trincomalee was reported.  The article stated 
that the Tiger had been strangled, and that the body had 
been found close to a Sri Lanka Army position.  The 
clear implication of the unusual piece was that Tiger 
cadre were being set on by the Sri Lanka Army.  There is 
no independent confirmation of this. 
 
================================= 
DUELING DEMONSTRATIONS IN COLOMBO 
================================= 
 
9.  (SBU) The situation in Colombo remains calm, despite 
an increased police presence near the PM's official 
residence.  The police have said demonstrations will be 
allowed to take place -- despite their prohibition in 
the emergency regulations -- but that demonstrators will 
most likely be prevented from nearing the President's 
and Prime Minister's official residences.  So far, there 
have been no reports of any violence.  Given all of the 
dueling rallies under way, RSO will continue to monitor 
the developing situation closely.  Embassy employees and 
the American community have been advised to use caution 
around the city. 
 
======= 
COMMENT 
======= 
 
10.  (C) As reviewed in Reftels, the battle between the 
President and the PM is shaping up to be a long war of 
attrition.  The President has a solid edge in terms of 
her overwhelming executive powers, which give her 
control of the police and the military.  The Prime 
Minister, who appears to be gaining popularity since the 
crisis broke out (see Reftels), seems to have "people 
power" on his side.  The next few days are bound to be 
crucial as the UNP decides exactly how to proceed.  The 
PM is a very cautious man, but the emotions of his 
supporters are clearly running high.  In the meantime, 
there are few signs that the President -- who can be 
quite stubborn when she wants to be -- plans to back 
down, although she may have initially miscalculated the 
depth of the PM's support.  As they focus on each other, 
the LTTE must not be forgotten.  Save for emitting some 
low volume expressions of concern, the group has been 
very quiet.  That is not necessarily an indication that 
the secretive group is accepting of what is happening in 
the south, but, rather, it probably means the Tigers 
have deep qualms and are reviewing their next steps. 
END COMMENT. 
 
11.  (U) Minimize considered. 
 
ENTWISTLE