US embassy cable - 03COLOMBO1926

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 001926 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR D, SA, SA/INS, SA/PD, S/CT; DS/DSS/ITA; DS/IP/NEA/SA 
DEPARTMENT ALSO PLEASE PASS TOPEC 
NSC FOR E. MILLARD 
 
E.O. 12958:  DECL:  11-06-13 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, PTER, ASEC, KPAO, ECON, CASC, CE, NO, LTTE - Peace Process, Political Parties 
SUBJECT:  Sri Lanka Update:  MPs reportedly rally to 
PM's side; Tamils worried; Situation in Colombo quiet 
 
Refs:  (A) Colombo-Ops Center 11/06/2003 telecon 
 
-      (B) Colombo 1918, and previous 
-      (C) Oslo 2293 
 
(U) Classified by Charge' d' Affaires James F. 
Entwistle.  Reasons 1.5 (b, d). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  In reaction to the President's 
dramatic actions of November 4-5, MPs from the governing 
coalition and Tamil parties have reportedly rallied in 
support of the Prime Minister.  There are still 
indications, however, that the President may be trying 
to tempt possible defectors.  After his visit to 
Washington and his Oval Office meeting, the PM is due 
back in Colombo early November 7. In other developments, 
the President's party has reiterated its support for the 
peace process and the Supreme Court has ruled in favor 
of the President in regard to defense matters.  Tamil 
reaction to the President's moves has been one of deep 
concern.  As of yet, there has been no further reaction 
from the Tigers.  Despite recent losses, the Colombo 
stock market closed marginally up.  There are some 
indications that the government-controlled press, which 
has been taken over by the President, may be hewing more 
to her line.  The situation in Colombo remains calm. 
Septel provides analysis on the President's motives in 
taking her recent steps and reviews tentative 
indications that she may have miscalculated.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
REPORTED LETTER OF CONFIDENCE IN PM 
----------------------------------- 
 
2.  (SBU) In an apparent show of support for Prime 
Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, 130 MPs from several 
parties, including his United National Party (UNP), the 
Tamil National Alliance (TNA), and Sri Lanka Muslim 
Congress (SLMC), have signed a letter expressing their 
full confidence in his government.  In a list that is 
being kept close hold, there are also reportedly 
signatures of several members of the President's 
People's Alliance party (PA), but that is not confirmed. 
If 130 MPs have signed on, the figure is significantly 
above the 113 MPs needed to form a majority in the 225- 
seat Parliament. 
 
3.  (C) In the meantime, party supporters are planning 
an expansive welcome for the Prime Minister on his 
return from his Washington visit early November 7.  UNP 
MPs are reportedly arranging to meet the PM at the 
airport and accompany him in a motorcade to "Temple 
Trees," his official residence in downtown Colombo.  The 
rally may spark some tension in light of the state of 
emergency declared by the President on November 5. 
(Note:  We have advised Embassy employees and the 
American community to exercise caution as they move 
around town on November 7.)  There is uncertainty over 
whether the emergency regulations in place will be 
imposed to prevent the UNP MPs from rallying behind the 
PM.  (Note:  FYI:  The state of emergency is set to 
expire 10 days from November 5 and would need the re- 
authorization of Parliament to remain in effect.  One 
presidential advisor told us that the President most 
likely will let the state of emergency lapse in 10 days, 
as she only enacted it to address immediate "security 
concerns" arising from her November 4-5 actions.  End 
Note.) 
 
PRESIDENT TRYING TO GATHER SUPPORT 
---------------------------------- 
 
4.  (C) There are continuing indications that President 
Kumaratunga and her party are trying to induce members 
of the UNP governing coalition to cross over to her PA 
party.  If roughly 15-20 or so MPs do so, the PA would 
likely attain a majority in Parliament without the 
President having to call elections, as some observers 
believe she may be inclined to do if all else fails. 
Supporting the theory that the President is trying to 
woo MPs to her side, Dr. Sarath Amunugama, a senior PA 
MP, suggested to poloff on November 6 that some Muslim 
MPs might be tempted to defect from the governing 
coalition.  In a possible sign of trouble for the PA, 
Norwegian Ambassador Hans Brattskar told the Charge' 
that he had recently met Opposition Leader Mahinda 
Rajapakse.  Rajapakse said he was extremely upset over 
the President's actions, adding that the chance of the 
PA winning an election against the UNP was extremely 
slim. 
 
PRESIDENT'S PARTY UNDERSCORES SUPPORT FOR CEASEFIRE 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
5.  (C) As the President did in her nationally televised 
speech on November 4 (see Ref B), presidential advisor 
Lakshman Kadirgamar told a news conference late November 
5 that the ceasefire agreement would be respected and 
that the President had no intention of resuming 
hostilities.  Kadirgamar further noted that the 
President was committed to a political solution and was 
ready to negotiate with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil 
Eelam (LTTE).  The President's office also issued a 
press release November 6 assuring the people of Sri 
Lanka that there was "no cause for alarm or panic," and 
stating that the President was "committed to the 
continuity of the ceasefire agreement." 
 
CHIEF JUSTICE RULES IN FAVOR OF PRESIDENT 
----------------------------------------- 
 
6.  (SBU) In a development favorable to the President, 
the Supreme Court, headed by Chief Justice Sarath Silva, 
has ruled that executive power relating to defense 
issues was vested in the President by the Constitution. 
The ruling was made public on November 5.  President 
Kumaratunga had asked for the determination several 
weeks ago in response to amendments made to military 
regulations by then-Minister of Defense Marapana, who 
was removed from office by the President on November 4. 
As previously reported, an impeachment motion citing 
alleged abuse of power charges was entered by UNP MPs 
against Chief Justice Silva on November 4.  Silva is 
widely seen as a crony of the President's by the UNP and 
neutral observers, but it is unclear whether the charges 
have any merit.  Because of Parliament's suspension, no 
further action has been taken on the impeachment matter 
as of yet. 
 
TAMILS WORRIED; TIGERS QUIET 
---------------------------- 
 
7.  (C) Reaction among Tamils has been one of deep 
concern, particularly in light of the President's 
declaration of a state of emergency on November 5. 
Joseph Pararajasingham, a TNA MP for the eastern town of 
Batticaloa, told poloff on November 6 that the state of 
emergency had caused "fear and uncertainty" in the Tamil 
community.  Pararajasingham added that the President's 
moves had caused a feeling among Tamils that the peace 
process was in real jeopardy.  Gajen Ponnambalam, 
another TNA MP, said there was a general skepticism 
among the LTTE regarding the President's actions, adding 
that Tamils were very concerned over the current 
situation.  As of yet, there has been no further 
reaction from the Tigers beyond the group's vague 
expression of "concern" on November 4. 
 
ECONOMIC UPDATE 
--------------- 
 
8.  (SBU) Despite recent losses (see Ref B), Sri Lanka's 
stock market closed marginally up on November 6, though 
the frenzied trading pace of November 5 was not evident. 
Business groups continued to call for the various 
parties to the dispute to work together and not further 
damage the country's international reputation. 
Presidential Secretariat Director General Mano 
Tittawella advised the private sector to view the 
President's moves "in their proper context" and noted 
they were not undertaken to "promote chaos or anarchy." 
The Sri Lankan rupee depreciated further against the 
dollar.  Citibank CEO Kapila Jayawardene told Econ FSN 
that he expected the next three weeks to be turbulent, 
and that banks were currently not quoting exchange 
prices given the volatility in the market. 
 
IMPACT ON THE PRESS 
------------------- 
 
9.  (C) These developments have already affected Sri- 
Lanka's government-owned media houses, where new, pro-PA 
leadership has been hastily installed (see Ref B.)  What 
impact these new players will have on the government- 
owned media remains to be seen.  However, some observers 
have already noted changes -- perhaps coincidental, 
probably not -- in the above-the-fold front page of the 
government-controlled Lake House's flagship daily, the 
English-language DAILY NEWS: 
 
-- 11/5:  a headshot of the PM and headlines that call 
the President's actions "a deliberate and opportunistic 
act" and quote the PM as saying:  "I will ensure 
people's mandate is implemented." 
 
-- 11/6:  (the first day of the new PA-installed 
publishing leadership):  "Ceasefire agreement will stand 
- Kadirgamar" and "President supreme in Lanka's defence 
- Supreme Court." 
 
10.  (C) Meanwhile, Sri Lanka's independent media houses 
have assumed an unruffled wait-and-see mode.  Senior 
editors at the Upali Group (which publishes independent 
dailies and weekenders in English and Sinhala) are 
crusty survivors who tell us that they've "seen it all 
before."  And the owner of the Wijeya Group (which, like 
Upali, publishes independent dailies and weekenders in 
English and Sinhala) said that he had not been 
particularly comfortable under the UNP government and 
anticipated "nothing unusual" now.  On a more pragmatic 
level, contacts at both Upali and Wijeya predicted that 
the President's move would simultaneously increase 
readership (by piquing interest in the story) and lead 
to a further loss of credibility for the Lake House 
Press. 
 
SITUATION IN COLOMBO CALM 
------------------------- 
 
11.  (C) The situation in Colombo remains quiet, with 
people moving about the city as usual.  Adding to the 
calm atmosphere, the Norwegian Ambassador told Charge' 
that he had received assurances from the chiefs of the 
Sri Lanka Army, Navy and Air Force that they would 
continue to abide by the rulings of the Sri Lanka 
Monitoring Mission.  SLMM spokesperson Agnes Bragadottir 
characterized SLMM operations island-wide to poloff as 
"business as usual." 
 
12.  (U) Minimize considered. 
 
ENTWISTLE