US embassy cable - 03ZAGREB2365

UNCLAS ZAGREB 002365 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/SCE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, HR, Political Parties/Elections 
SUBJECT: ONCE AGAIN, NO DOUBLE VOTE FOR MINORITIES IN 
CROATIA 
 
1. THE CROATIAN PARLIAMENT VOTED LAST MONTH TO DENY A DOUBLE 
VOTE TO ETHNIC MINORITY VOTERS IN THE NATIONAL ELECTIONS SET 
    FOR NOVEMBER 23.  THE "DOUBLE VOTE" WOULD HAVE PERMITTED 
OFFICIALLY-DESIGNATED MINORITIES TO VOTE TWICE ON ELECTION 
DAY, ONCE FOR GENERAL PARTY LISTS, AND ONCE FOR AN ETHNIC 
REPRESENTATIVE.  THE ISSUE WAS BROUGHT TO THE PARLIAMENT'S 
COMMITTEE ON LEGISLATION, WHICH DETERMINED THAT THE 
CONSTITUTION, THE CONSTITUTIONAL LAW ON NATIONAL MINORITIES, 
AND THE ELECTORAL LAW ALL CLEARLY DEFINE THAT MINORITY 
MEMBERS DO NOT HAVE DOUBLE VOTING RIGHTS.  SEVENTY-ONE MPS 
VOTED IN SUPPORT OF THE COMMITTEE, 33 OPPOSED, AND FOUR 
ABSTAINED.  THOSE IN FAVOR OF DENYING THE DOUBLE VOTE TO 
ETHNIC MINORITIES INCLUDED A CROSS SECTION OF BOTH THE RULING 
COALITION AND OPPOSITION PARTIES. 
 
2. MILORAD PUPOVAC, CHAIR OF THE SERB NATIONAL COUNCIL (SNV), 
AND CANDIDATE OF THE INDEPENDENT DEMOCRATIC SERB PARTY 
(SDSS), COMPLAINED ABOUT THE DECISION AND TOLD US HE PLANNED 
TO APPEAL IT ONCE AGAIN TO THE CONSTITUTIONAL COURT.  PUPOVAC 
AND FURIO RABIN, CROATIA'S LEADING ETHNIC ITALIAN MP, HAVE 
BEEN THE LEADING ADVOCATES PUSHING FOR A DECISION IN SUPPORT 
OF DOUBLE VOTING RIGHTS FOR MINORITIES. 
 
3. DOUBLE VOTING WOULD HAVE ENSURED PUPOVAC'S ELECTION AS AN 
ETHNIC SERB REPRESENTATIVE TO PARLIAMENT.  IN THE PREVIOUS 
ELECTION HE LOST THE RACE FOR THE ONLY ETHNIC SERB SEAT BY 
APPROXIMATELY 2,000 VOTES TO MILAN DJUKIC, WHO WON BECAUSE UP 
TO 80 PERCENT OF ALL ETHNIC VOTERS CHOSE TO VOTE ON THE PARTY 
LISTS -- LEAVING ONLY THE SO-CALLED "HARD LINERS" MORE IN 
SYNC WITH DJUKIC'S CONFRONTATIONAL POLITICS TO VOTE ON THE 
ETHNIC LIST.  DOUBLE VOTING WOULD HAVE ALSO OPENED THE WAY 
FOR PUPOVAC TO SPEND MORE TIME ENCOURAGING MINORITY VOTERS TO 
SUPPORT THE RULING CENTER-LEFT COALITION -- IN EFFECT 
    ENSURING A FUTURE POLITICAL PAYOFF FOR "DELIVERING" THE SERB 
VOTE TO RACAN. 
 
4. IN THE PARLIAMENTARY DEBATE, MILAN DJUKIC, THE SOLE MP 
ELECTED IN 2000 TO REPRESENT ETHNIC SERBS IN THE SABOR, 
OPPOSED THE DOUBLE VOTE FOR ETHNIC MINORITIES.  DJUKIC'S 
POSITION IS PARTLY PRAGMATIC -- IT WOULD NEVER PASS 
PARLIAMENT -- BUT MOSTLY PERSONAL.  THE REALITY OF ONE-MAN 
ONE-VOTE IS THAT THE MAJORITY OF ETHNIC SERB VOTERS HAVE AND 
WILL VOTE FOR THE SDP AND OTHER NATIONAL PARTIES OF THE 
CENTER-LEFT.  IF PROVIDED WITH A SECOND "ETHNIC" VOTE, MANY 
OF THOSE VOTERS, SOCIAL DEMOCRATS BY INCLINATION, WOULD MORE 
LIKELY CAST THEIR ADDITIONAL VOTE FOR PUPOVAC OR OTHER 
"MODERATE" CENTER-LEFT ETHNIC SERBS CANDIDATES.  HENCE, 
DJUKIC IS CONTENT TO HAVE ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF ETHNIC 
SERBS VOTE ON THE ETHNIC SERB LIST BECAUSE THOSE WHO VOTE 
TEND TO BE MORE "HARD-LINE" NATIONALISTS.  TO SOLIDIFY HIS 
SUPPORT AMONG SUCH VOTERS, DJUKIC IN RECENT MONTHS HAS RAMPED 
UP THE RHETORIC OF VICTIMIZATION OF SERBS AND CRITICISM OF 
THE GOVERNMENT. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
5. NOVEMBER 5 MARKS THE OFFICIAL BEGINNING OF CROATIA'S 
ELECTION CAMPAIGN AND THE ISSUE OF DOUBLE VOTING FOR 
MINORITIES IS NOW RESOLVED, AT LEAST FOR THIS CYCLE.  BUT 
PUPOVAC PROBABLY NEED NOT WORRY SO MUCH: ONE OF THE 
ACCOMPLISHMENTS OF THE RACAN GOVERNMENT WAS TO CHANGE THE 
ELECTION LAW TO EXPAND THE NUMBER OF GUARANTEED SEATS IN 
PARLIAMENT FOR MINORITIES TO EIGHT, INCLUDING THREE FOR 
    CROATIA'S SERBIAN COMMUNITY.  THIS TIME AROUND MOST OBSERVERS 
THINK THERE IS ROOM FOR DJUKIC AND PUPOVAC -- AND BOTH ARE 
CAMPAIGNING HARD.  WE SAW PUPOVAC ON THE STUMP RECENTLY IN 
KNIN, PUTTING ALL HIS BEST ORATORY SKILLS -- HE IS A 
PROFESSOR OF RHETORIC AT THE UNIVERSITY OF ZAGREB -- TO THE 
TEST.  WHILE SOME PROPONENTS DECRY THE DENIAL OF THE DOUBLE 
VOTE AS A LOSS OF AFFIRMATIVE ACTION FOR MINORITY RIGHTS, 
THESE CONCERNS ARE PROBABLY OVER-WROUGHT. 
 
6. BY AFFIRMING ONE-MAN, ONE-VOTE, NATIONAL POLITICAL PARTIES 
WILL HAVE MORE INCENTIVE TO BROADEN THEIR APPEAL TO ALL 
VOTERS REGARDLESS OF ETHNICITY, PROMOTING GREATER POLITICAL 
INCLUSIVENESS, ETHNIC TOLERANCE, RESPECT FOR HUMAN RIGHTS -- 
AND THEY WILL HAVE MORE REASON TO FOCUS ON POCKET BOOK ISSUES. 
FRANK 
 
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