US embassy cable - 03COLOMBO1902

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 001902 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR D, SA, SA/INS, S/CT, DS/DSS/ITA, 
DS/IP/NEA/SA; NSC FOR E. MILLARD 
 
PLEASE ALSO PASS TOPEC 
 
E.O. 12958:   DECL: 11-04-13 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, PREL, ASEC, MOPS, CASC, CE, NO, Political Parties, LTTE - Peace Process 
SUBJECT:  Provoking political crisis, President fires 
three key ministers and suspends Parliament 
 
Refs:  (A) Colombo-Ops Center 11/04/2003 telecons 
 
-      (B) Colombo 1893, and previous 
 
(U) Classified by Charge' d'Affaires James F. Entwistle. 
Reasons 1.5 (b,d). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  In a sudden move, President 
Kumaratunga has fired the ministers of defense, 
interior, and mass communications citing concerns 
over the "deterioration of the security situation." 
Late in the day, the President also suspended Parliament 
until November 19.  The PM is in Washington and his 
office just sent us a statement strongly opposing her 
moves.  Colombo appears quiet as of late November 4. 
The President's action highlights her volatility and 
sets the table for a serious political crisis with 
unknown implications for the peace process.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (C) PRESIDENT FIRES MINISTERS:  In a sudden 
announcement made mid-day November 4 while Prime 
Minister Wickremesinghe was in Washington, President 
Kumaratunga sacked the ministers of defense, interior, 
and mass communications.  The President also fired the 
secretaries (second-in-commands) in the ministries of 
 
SIPDIS 
defense and mass communications, but spared the 
secretary of the interior ministry.  In a conversation 
 
SIPDIS 
with the Charge', Harim Peiris, press spokesman for the 
President, confirmed reports that the President would 
personally take over the three ministerial portfolios 
left vacant by the firings.  Peiris, who has been named 
by the President to be the new Secretary in the Mass 
Communications Ministry, added that the ministers in 
question could retain other portfolios that they had 
had, e.g., John Amaratunga of the Interior Ministry was 
still the Minister of Christian Affairs. 
 
3.  (C) SUSPENSION OF PARLIAMENT:  Late in the day, the 
President also suspended Parliament until November 19. 
Harim Peiris told the Charge' that rumors that the 
President planned to declare a "State of Emergency" were 
not true. 
 
4.  (C) PRESIDENT'S RATIONALE VAGUE:  The President's 
rationale for the sudden firing of the ministers was 
vague.  In a brief written statement announcing her 
move, the President's Office commented:  "This step has 
been taken after careful consideration, in order to 
prevent further deterioration of the security situation 
in the country.  The reasons for this action will be 
made known to the public in due course."  Dr. Sarath 
Amunugama, a senior MP in the President's People 
Alliance (PA) party, told Pol FSN that the President 
will issue a more detailed statement and perhaps go on 
television late November 4 to explain her move.  We 
later heard that she might make a statement as late as 
November 5. 
 
5.  (C) PM'S STATEMENT:  The UNP government appears to 
have been caught completely off guard by the President's 
sudden move, although there has been speculation that 
the President might "try something" in conjunction with 
the mid-November budget debate in Parliament (see Ref 
B).  For much of the day, there was no reaction by the 
government to her move.  Late November 4, however, 
Mission received the following statement on official 
stationery in the name of Prime Minister Wickremesinghe, 
who is in Washington, rejecting the President's move: 
 
Begin text: 
 
Prime Minister's Office 
 
Whilst being out of the country on an important visit to 
the United States, a co-chair of the donor community, in 
furtherance of Sri Lanka's peace process and economic 
development, I have learnt that the President, Her 
Excellency Chandrika Kumaratunaga has precipitated a 
national crisis in an attempt to subvert the mandate 
given to my government by the people on December 5, 2001 
and reinforced in March 2002 at the local authority 
elections. 
 
Your government will not be deviated from the mandate 
given it by the people to pursue the path of peace, 
security and economic prosperity due to the 
irresponsible and precipitous actions of the President 
aimed at plunging the country into chaos and anarchy. 
 
I pledge to you the people, your government will not 
allow this desperate and irresponsible attempt to 
undermine the peace process and economic prosperity of 
the people to succeed. 
 
I remain resolute in implementing the mandate of the 
people for peace, democracy and prosperity with the 
fullest support and continued confidence of the 
international community. 
 
It is blatantly obvious that these opportunistic actions 
are timed to deprive the people of the economic and 
social benefits that they are on the verge of reaping as 
a result of the solid foundations laid by your 
government over the last two years. 
 
Be rest assured I will continue my mission for the 
people undeterred and conclude my crucial program in 
Washington D.C., including the meeting with president 
George W. Bush, which is part of the ongoing process of 
consolidating the peace, unity and economic prosperity 
of all our people. 
 
I therefore call upon all of you, the people, the armed 
forces, police and public service to remain calm and 
vigilant in the face of this deliberate attempt of 
endanger the peace process which we will together 
overcome. 
 
04th November 2003 
 
End text. 
 
6.  (C) OBSERVERS PREDICT "COHABITATION WARFARE":  In 
discussions with polchief, two well-informed observers 
of the local political scene said they thought the 
President probably has the right to fire the ministers 
per the Sri Lankan Constitution.  Kethesh Loganathan, an 
analyst at the Center for Policy Alternatives (CPA), a 
local think-tank, said the Constitution is written in 
such a way that almost all executive powers reside in 
the hands of the presidency, including membership in the 
Cabinet.  In any case, he noted, the President would 
probably win if the issue is brought to the courts 
because the Supreme Court and especially Chief Justice 
Sarath Silva are allies of the PA and would probably 
back her.  All that said, Loganathan predicted that the 
President's action would spark "bitter cohabitation 
warfare" because "the UNP will not take this lying 
down."  Jehan Perera, the media director at the National 
Peace Council, another local think-tank, agreed, 
remarking that the UNP might be so angry as to take the 
matter to the streets. 
 
7.  (SBU) COLOMBO QUIET:  Colombo appears quiet and 
normal as of late November 4.  RSO continues to monitor 
the situation.  Reportedly on the orders of the 
President, the military has deployed around the 
headquarters of the Sri Lanka Broadcasting Corporation 
(SLBC) and the government's printing press.  We see no 
need for a change to our consular travel advisory at 
this point.  The DATT is in touch with military 
counterparts regarding the implications of the defense 
ministry changes on a number of U.S. military 
cooperation activities under way at the moment. 
 
8.  (C) COMMENT:  The President's action highlights her 
increasing volatility.  As reported (see Ref B), her 
recent track record has involved lashing out routinely 
at the PM and other targets of her displeasure.  While 
her previous outbursts were mere darts aimed at the GSL, 
this latest step, unfortunately, sets the table for a 
serious political crisis and seems timed to ensure 
maximum embarrassment for the PM in Washington on the 
eve of his Oval Office meeting.  It is not clear where 
the epicenter of the crisis will be, but it seems that 
the UNP might well take steps to try to impeach the 
President and perhaps the Chief Justice (when Parliament 
comes back into session).  The UNP also appears to have 
a significant amount of popular support due to its peace 
process initiative and it could well bring out its 
supporters in protest.  Given the swirl of events, fresh 
elections are also possible.  The PM's statement above 
indicates that his government plans to fight back hard. 
 
9.  (C) COMMENT (Continued):  Implications for the peace 
process and the planned restart of talks focused on the 
Tigers' just released counterproposals are unknown.  For 
their part, the Tigers are very aware of what is 
happening:  their website, "TamilNet," is posting 
regular updates on the situation in Colombo.  In the 
past, the group has cited concerns about the situation 
in the south as a reason for not moving forward along 
the peace track.  END COMMENT. 
 
10.  (U) Minimize considered. 
 
ENTWISTLE