US embassy cable - 03GUATEMALA2802

UNCLAS GUATEMALA 002802 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, KDEM, GT 
SUBJECT: VOTERS IN JALAPA SET TO CAST BALLOTS FOR "ANYBODY 
BUT RIOS MONTT" 
 
 
1. Summary: Man-on-the-street interviews with voters in the 
Department of Jalapa suggest a strong backlash against the 
ruling FRG party and its candidate Efrain Rios Montt in the 
November 9 election. Jalapa voted overwhelmingly for the FRG 
in the past two elections, but respondents said the current 
FRG government is doing a bad job, and Jalapanecos are poised 
to throw them out.  There was little enthusiasm expressed for 
either GANA candidate Berger or UNE candidate Colom, but most 
respondents said they would vote for Berger as he is the 
candidate best positioned to unseat the FRG.  The local 
representative of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal said he 
expects the elections will be pulled off without fraud or 
violence in much of the department, but said one municipality 
is bracing for protests after the results are known.  End 
Summary 
 
2. While the Department of Jalapa is only about 60 miles east 
of Guatemala City, it is a rural area with a reputation as a 
cowboy town. Jalapa represents less than 3% of the Guatemalan 
electorate, but its vote results in the last national 
election virtually mirrored national results. As in other 
areas of the country that strongly supported Rios Montt is 
the past two elections, voters in Jalapa are increasingly 
turning to other parties. 
 
3. On October 30, PolCouns, ConOff and IM specialist visited 
the country seat of Jalapa and Sansare, a small town in the 
same department, to meet with representatives of the Supreme 
Electoral Tribunal (TSE), the Supreme Electoral Council for 
the Department, and to get the viewpoints on the elections of 
the people in the streets. The TSE workers said they were 
preparing for a large voter turn-out; this was supported by 
the fact that 97% of the people interviewed informally said 
that they would vote on November 9th. The TSE workers claimed 
all of the pieces were in place for a smooth election day. 
According to them, problems with the electoral registry would 
be no worse than in past years. 
 
4. The TSE reps downplayed fears of election-day violence 
overall, but were unified in citing one exception: San Luis 
Jilotepeque, a small mountain town with a history of election 
day violence. In 1995, the losing mayoral candidate and his 
supporters took over the town's municipal building the day 
after the election, alleging that they had been deprived of 
victory by fraud. That same candidate is running again this 
year, and is now a member of the FRG. The TSE reps told us he 
has threatened similar actions this year if he does not win. 
Compounding the issue are racial tensions in the town. The 
FRG candidate is an indigenous Mayan, running against a 
"ladino," which is seen by some observers as cause of more 
election run-up tensions. EU observers have already visited 
San Luis Jilotepeque and plan to be there on election day. 
 
5. Man-on-the-street interviews conducted in Sansare and 
Jalapa revealed that voters were not enthusiastic about any 
of the candidates, but were determined to remove the FRG from 
power. Only two respondents (roughly 5% of the sample) said 
they would cast a ballot for FRG candidate Rios Montt. 
Several people said they were going to vote for "anybody but 
Rios Montt."  Oscar Berger (GANA) appealed to most of the 
people, garnering 53% in the informal poll. Alvaro Colom 
(UNE) followed with 25%; Leonel Lopez Rodas (PAN) got 9%. 
 
6. 53% of the respondents cited combating crime and 
insecurity as the greatest challenge for the next party in 
power. 38% said that unemployment was the greatest problem 
currently facing the country.  People also mentioned the 
economy, and lack of quality education and/or health care as 
issues that most concerned them. 
 
7. Interestingly, the majority of the people on the street 
(62%) said that they thought this election would be more 
transparent, and have less fraud than in elections past. This 
perception, along with the fact that 97% of the people 
interviewed vowed to vote, point to probable high voter 
turn-out in Jalapa. 
HAMILTON