US embassy cable - 03GUATEMALA2794

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 GUATEMALA 002794 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, PINR, KDEM, EAID, GT, OAS 
SUBJECT: GUATEMALAN ELECTION UPDATE: ONE WEEK TO BALLOTING 
 
REF: A. GUATEMALA 2769 
 
     B. GUATEMALA 2705 
 
Classified By: PolCouns David Lindwall for reason 1.5 (b) and (d) 
 
1. (C) Summary: Polls show voter preferences largely 
unchanged, with Berger ahead with 41%, followed by Colom 
(22.3%) and Rios Montt (13.3%).  Informal polling conducted 
by Embassy in the countryside supports these results.  The 
OAS and EU Observer Missions say the TSE has addressed 
problems with the voter registration list ("padron") 
effectively by setting up special tables for "observed votes" 
at all polling places.  There is a growing concern of ours, 
shared by the EU Ambassadors, that continuing (and 
politically motivated) press reports publicizing rumors of 
potential fraud and violence will undermine the credibility 
of a relatively good electoral process.  The Ambassador met 
separately with candidates Lopez Rodas, Rios Montt (reftel) 
and Colom to discuss election issues.  With only a week left 
before the elections, political tensions remain much lower 
than their high point in July, but are, as expected, spiking 
again in the runup to election day.  End summary. 
 
What the Polls Say 
------------------ 
2.  (U) A Noguera poll taken October 24-29 showed GANA 
candidate Oscar Berger significantly ahead with 41.0% of 
voter preferences, up only marginally from September.  UNE's 
Alvaro Colom rose significantly from 15.9% in September to 
22.3% in the final week of October.  FRG candidate Rios Montt 
also rose slightly from 12.2% to 13.3%.  Voters continued to 
list violent crime as their most serious concern (46%), 
followed by unemployment (40%), the economic situation (25%) 
and corruption (13%).  Eighty-four percent said they intended 
to vote (which would be a record in Guatemala), and 57.9% 
said they would never vote for Rios Montt (only 7.9% said 
they would never vote for Berger).  The poll also suggested 
that votes for Congress would be much more divided than the 
presidential vote, and that no party is likely to have a 
working majority in Congress.  Following are the voter 
preference percentages: 
 
-         voting preferences as a percentage of respondents 
-                July     August    September    Oct. 24-29 
-         --------------------------------------------- ---- 
Berger - GANA     30.5      39.6       40.7          41.0 
Colom - UNE       12.6      16.7       15.9          22.3 
Rios Montt - FRG  10.3      11.5       12.2          13.3 
Lopez Rodas - PAN  3.4       4.2        4.9           6.2 
 
OAS and EU Observers Say TSE On-Track 
------------------------------------- 
3. (SBU) The electoral observation missions of the EU and OAS 
hosted a meeting for Ambassadors on October 29 in which, 
among other things, they noted that the Supreme Electoral 
Tribunal (TSE) will set up a special table at each voting 
place to receive votes from properly credentialled voters 
whose registration is not recorded or is recorded at a 
distant voting place.  This measure is to ensure that 
technical difficulties with the voter registration list 
("padron electoral") do not lead to the disenfranchisement of 
voters.  Regional offices of the TSE have told us that they 
have reviewed the voter registration lists for their 
departments, and that they do not expect any more problems 
than previous years with voters being able to find their 
voting places. 
 
4. (SBU) At the same meeting, the EU Ambassadors, normally 
outspoken in their fears of election day manipulation by the 
FRG, expressed concern instead that the media (largely 
anti-FRG) was generating an unfounded sense that there would 
be significant violence on election day (an argument we have 
attempted to counter through numerous public messages urging 
voters to go to the polls), and that this message could 
undermine voter participation and the credibility of the 
electoral process.  All agreed that the TSE was doing a good 
job, and that it was above partisan manipulation.  And while 
violence after the election typically does occur at the local 
level here, press headlines warning of the possibility of 
election-day violence could scare Guatemalans into staying 
home.  An AID contractor with significant experience in other 
Latin American elections recently noted in his evaluation of 
the process in Guatemala that civil society, the opposition 
and the media are so determined to keep one of the candidates 
(Rios Montt) from winning, that they have lost their 
objectivity to the detriment of the electoral process itself. 
 Their frequent sounding alarm over the potential for 
violence on election day will establish their claim to 
challenge the electoral outcome in the event the candidate 
they oppose makes it into the second round. 
 
Ambassador Meets with Candidates 
-------------------------------- 
5. (C) The Ambassador met at the Residence with PAN 
presidential candidate Leonel Lopez Rodas on October 28, FRG 
candidate Rios Montt on October 29 (reftel) and UNE candidate 
Alvaro Colom on October 31.  He had previously met with GANA 
candidates Berger and Stein (ref B).  Lopez Rodas, who was 
accompanied by Congressional candidate Luis Rubio, said that 
the PAN did not expect fraud on election day, but said he 
does not have confidence that FRG members in remote areas 
will respect the outcome of the election.  He welcomed the 
chance to dialogue with us on bilateral issues, should he 
make it into the second round.  Lopez Rodas (who has not 
broken into double digits in all but his own polls), looked 
tired and did not come across as expecting to make it into 
the second round.  In response to a query from the 
Ambassador, Lopez Rodas said that he would ensure that PAN 
members do not challenge the election results, should they 
lose, by anything but legal means. 
 
6. (C) UNE candidate Alvaro Colom, who was accompanied by 
economic policy advisor Fernando Monroy, was upbeat, 
recognizing that all the independent polls put him in a 
relatively solid second place.  Monroy told us that "second 
place" status had brought with it significant contributions 
from new campaign supporters, and that the party would have 
the resources for its final push.  Like the other candidates, 
Colom expressed confidence about the elections being free and 
fair, but qualified it by saying he could not guess how the 
FRG would react to a first round defeat.  He said that, 
should UNE lose in the first round (which he virtually 
discounted), he would challenge the results only by legal 
means, and then only if it was clear that his loss was the 
result of fraud.  Pressed by the Ambassador, he pledged to 
get the message to his supporters that "taking the streets" 
on election night, in the event of a defeat, was 
unacceptable.  Colom said that organized crime figures were 
seeking meetings with him, presumably to offer financial 
support, and that he had avoided any contact with them and 
instructed his advisors to do the same.  Like the other 
candidates, Colom said he would welcome a meeting between his 
transition team and the Embassy to discuss in more depth the 
bilateral agenda in the event he makes it into the second 
round. 
 
Comment 
------- 
7. (SBU) Despite isolated acts of violence, potentially 
related to the elections, political tensions overall are much 
reduced from July, although, as one would expect, they are 
spiking again in the runup to election day itself.  There are 
some technical problems with the "padron electoral," but the 
international observation missions are satisfied that they 
will not result in vote fraud, and the TSE has made provision 
to ensure voters are not disenfranchised.  The major 
candidates have all told us they do not expect fraud to have 
an impact on election day, and have pledged to get the word 
out to their supporters that post-election violence is 
unacceptable.  With a week left before balloting, voter 
preferences have not shifted significantly.  In Guatemala, 
surprises are always possible, but so far things look poised 
for an orderly election on November 9. 
HAMILTON