US embassy cable - 03GUATEMALA2787

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 GUATEMALA 002787 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, PINR, GT 
SUBJECT: ELECTION SNAPSHOT #4: CONCERNS IN THE INDIGENOUS 
HIGHLANDS 
 
REF: GUATEMALA 2764 
 
Classified By: Economic Officer Thomas Palaia for reasons 1.5(d) 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary:  EmbOffs visited the indigenous highland 
areas of Quetzaltenango and San Jose Poaquil to continue to 
meet with local and international election monitoring 
organizations and test the pulse of the electorate outside 
the capital.  Our unscientific polling suggests widespread 
frustration with the current government and the belief that 
government resources are being used to manipulate voters. 
Generally, people expressed faith in the safeguards and 
procedures of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE). 
Observers expressed concern with voter manipulation and 
intimidation away from the polls.  There was also a general 
sense of insecurity and doubt regarding the ability and 
willingness of the National Police (PNC) to control potential 
election related violence.  End Summary. 
 
Background 
---------- 
 
2.  (SBU) Quetzaltenango is Guatemala,s second largest city 
with about 150,000 mostly indigenous inhabitants, and the 
capital of the Western highland province of the same name. 
It is also the only larger Guatemalan city with an indigenous 
mayor, Rigoberto Queme, who withdrew from the presidential 
race in August.  San Jose Poaquil, also largely indigenous, 
is a much smaller, poor rural town in the nearby province of 
Chimaltenango.  It suffered badly during the war and remains 
stunted with bleak economic prospects.  EmbOffs met in 
Quetzaltenango with local TSE leadership, observers from the 
Organization of American States (OAS) and the European Union 
(EU) as well as the UN verification mission in Guatemala 
MINUGUA, which has had a long-term presence in 
Quetzaltenango.  Although headquartered in Quetzaltenango 
these groups are handling much of western Guatemala.  "Man on 
the street" interviews were conducted in both Quetzaltenango 
and San Jose Poaquil. 
 
TSE and International Observers 
 
SIPDIS 
------------------------------- 
 
3.  (SBU) TSE officials were generally positive about 
preparations for coming elections.  The head career official 
for Quetzaltenango foresaw no problems with election-day 
events.  However, the local president of the municipal 
electoral commission claimed the commission's efforts 
suffered from a lack of resources.  He had yet to receive any 
funds to pay workers and could not make necessary repairs to 
prepare voting centers, most of which lack electricity which 
might leave them in the dark for the nighttime ballot count. 
They both expressed doubts whether the National Civil Police 
(PNC) will devote sufficient resources and worried about the 
possibility of election-day and post-election violence, 
particularly in the more rural areas.  Nevertheless, they 
expressed general confidence that they would find a way 
around these problems and the elections would be free and 
fair. 
 
4.  (C) International observers and MINUGUA shared confidence 
in TSE procedures and safeguards and did not anticipate 
significant problems at the voting centers.  However, they 
were unanimous in their assertions that voter intimidation 
and manipulation was already happening and even common in 
many areas.  They claimed to have witnessed intimidation and 
efforts by the FRG to influence individual voters through 
food, fertilizer and other "gifts".  They were most worried 
about rural, under-policed areas, specifically mentioning 
traditional FRG strongholds in nearby Totonicapan and San 
Marcos provinces. 
 
5.  (C) International groups also mentioned the looming 
threat of organized crime elements supporting individual 
candidates, particularly in the border areas of Huehuetenango 
where narcotics, guns and human trafficking are prevalent. 
However, they lacked evidence or intimate knowledge of the 
interest of such groups in the elections.  They also 
expressed concern over recent threats to violently stop 
elections, made by still unpaid former civil self-defense 
patrollers (ex-PAC) who they estimated number almost 200,000 
in the area.  While some speculated that the PNC was 
responding to FRG pressure to stay out of their pre-election 
antics and others believed the PNC simply lacked adequate 
resources, none expressed confidence in their ability to 
safeguard the elections and mediate ongoing intimidation of 
voters. 
 
"Man (and woman) on the Street" 
------------------------------- 
 
6.  (SBU) The ruling FRG commanded almost no support in our 
informal survey in Quetzaltenango even though they won a 
substantial majority in the 1999 second round presidential 
vote.  Voters we spoke with were primarily divided between 
Alvaro Colom (UNE) and Oscar Berger (GANA).  Among 44 
potential voters, Colom captured 39% and Berger 29%.  The 
remaining voters either did not plan to vote, were undecided, 
or planned on voting for one of four other candidates.  Colom 
supporters generally cited his honesty as the reason they 
would vote for him.  There was almost unanimous 
disappointment expressed in the current government, 
particularly in its failure to address security and crime 
issues, which interviewees cited as most important to them. 
The majority anticipated fraud in the coming elections, 
particularly in the surrounding rural areas. 
 
7.  (SBU) The FRG commanded significantly more support in 
rural San Jose Poaquil than it did in Quetzaltenango, but 
again Colom was strongest in our informal poll.  Of 22 
individuals interviewed, 36% said that they would support 
Colom while 31% preferred Rios Montt.  However, even those 
who supported Rios Montt were generally not happy with the 
current government, although Portillo and the FRG did very 
well in the 1999 elections in San Jose Poaquil.  Only one 
person identified herself as a Berger supporter.  Remaining 
interviewees claimed to support several other parties, 
including the Christian Democrat party (DCG) which does not 
have a presidential candidate, although the current mayor is 
a member.  Supporters of the FRG told us that recent 
government projects such as a road motivated their support. 
Colom supporters again expressed an appreciation for his 
honesty and lack of corruption. 
 
8.  (C) Comment:  Surveys and discussions revealed high 
levels of confidence in election-day procedures and TSE 
safeguards.  However, the lack of faith in the PNC's ability 
to provide adequate security, whether real or perceived, 
could impact voting behavior.  While we focused our 
questioning on the presidential race, it is local elections 
that are of greatest concern to voters.  There is little 
faith and marginal interest in the national government in 
this area.  The utter lack of credibility of the current 
government and the widely held perception that the vote is 
being manipulated by government distribution programs and FRG 
intimidation threaten the credibility of results in an area 
of the country that already feels disenfranchised with its 
national government. 
HAMILTON