US embassy cable - 03ISTANBUL1616

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISTANBUL 001616 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/27/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, TK, Istanbul 
SUBJECT: AKP LAYS ISTANBUL GROUNDWORK FOR MARCH 28 LOCAL 
ELECTIONS 
 
 
REF: ANKARA 6447 
 
 
Classified By: Acting Consul General Stuart Smith for Reasons 1.5 (b&d) 
 
 
 
 
1. (sbu) Summary: Following Ruling AK Party national congress 
(reftel), the Istanbul AK Party organization is gearing up 
vigorously at the grassroots level for next year's March 28 
municipal elections.  Not content merely to rely on the 
party's performance at the national level, the Istanbul AK 
Party organization's grassroots outreach campaign is already 
well under way.  Although no decision has been made on who 
will be the AK Party candidate for the Greater Istanbul 
Mayoralty, it now appears likely that Prime Minister and AK 
Party Chairman Tayyip Erdogan will pass over current 
independent Mayor Ali Mufit Gurtuna in favor of someone 
closer to him and the party.  End Summary. 
 
 
2. (sbu) Continuing strong support in the greater urban 
sprawl for Tayyip Erdogan owing to his attention to city 
services and infrastructure during his 1994-1998 tenure as 
mayor;  the failure of the opposition CHP to reach the man in 
the street; the collapse of Cem Uzan's Genc Party's 
popularity (following the exposure of financial scandals and 
corruption in his family conglomerate), and the absence of 
any other rising political challenges make the AK Party the 
heavy favorite in the upcoming municipal elections in 
Istanbul.  Gurtuna's chances of being welcomed into the AK 
Party have always hinged on whether the party would need his 
name recognition to win the upcoming local elections and 
whether he and Erdogan could overcome their mutual antipathy. 
 It now appears to us that, rather than coopting Mayor 
Gurtuna, PM Erdogan will probably feel comfortable nominating 
a lesser known candidate to challenge him. 
 
 
3. (u) On October 26, AK invited 2,500 assorted artists, 
athletes, journalists, civil society leaders, and ordinary 
citizens as part of its grassroots outreach campaign under 
the "AK Platform"-banner.  PM Erdogan, Istanbul Province AK 
Chairman Muezzinoglu, and other assorted party luminaries 
listened to short speeches by attendees detailing their views 
on, and possible solutions to, Istanbul's problems (similar 
meetings have already been held in each of Istanbul's 32 
sub-provinces).  Much of the criticism was directed at the 
notably-absent Mayor Gurtuna and several speeches called on 
AK to challenge him in the upcoming elections.  President of 
the Artisans (Esnaflar) Chamber Suat Yalkin, for example, 
publicly praised Erdogan and AK and promised to support and 
endorse a mayoral candidate "close to the Prime Minister." 
 
 
4. (c)  AK founding member Serap Yasar told poloff privately 
that there will be meetings in the coming weeks to discuss 
AK's mayoral candidate with a decision expected by November 
15.  Yasar was dismissive of Gurtuna's chances.  Istanbul 
Vice Chairman (and master of ceremony at the conference) 
Murat Yalcintas and another AK founding member Mukaddes 
Misiroglu later told poloff that they too saw Gurtuna's 
chances as slim, but "never to say never" in Turkish 
politics.  All agreed that the choice would ultimate come 
down to Party Chairman Erdogan himself. 
 
 
5. (u) Without criticizing the current mayor directly, PM 
Erdogan's speech remarked on the problems still facing the 
city, including uncontrolled migration and overcrowded 
classrooms.  Erdogan also promised to deliver public 
administration reform to give the local mayors and district 
mayors the authority to tackle problems locally.  President 
of the Independent Industrialists and Businessmen's 
Association (MUSIAD) Ali Bayramoglu touched on the same 
subject, saying that "only Istanbul can solve Istanbul's 
problems" (Note: Bayramoglu is often mentioned as a possible 
AK candidate for mayor). 
 
 
6. (c) In lengthy discussions with us, Muezzinoglu, 
Gaziosmanpasa sub-province chairman Subasi, and a group of 
leading party activists from Eyup sub-province also laid out 
the party's block-by-block structure, e.g., each polling 
booth neighborhood is canvassed door-to-door by a four-member 
team with a rep each from the party's women's and youth 
branches joining two more senior local reps.  Eyup reps added 
that they start each day as if the party is at zero percent 
rather than the 40%-45% level party polls indicate.  Noting 
that he monitors the provincial party activity through a 
regularized stream of reports up from the base, Muezzinoglu 
also underscored that no one is relaxing: his goal is to 
reach 51% of the vote in the elections. 
 
 
7. (c) Comment: Not content to rest on their laurels, the 
Istanbul AK Party organization is preparing to use the same 
successful electoral strategy they used last year: Party 
Chairman Erdogan's charisma combined with meticulous 
grassroots campaigning.  Carried out by tens of thousands of 
activists and volunteers, AK already has a clear jump on the 
competition in local campaigning and is not relaxing its 
pace.  Nothing is a foregone conclusion, however.  The choice 
of candidates is particularly important in municipal 
elections.  Moreover, while Erdogan's handpicked provincial 
chairman Muezzinoglu, a surgeon, is highly organized, he is 
relatively untested in the political arena. 
SMITH