US embassy cable - 03ABUJA1891

UNCLAS ABUJA 001891 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, KDEM, NI 
SUBJECT: PDP: CONVENTION IN DECEMBER, DISCORD IN THE RANKS 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY COUNSELOR JAMES MAXSTADT FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) 
AND (D). 
 
 
1. (SBU) The ruling PDP held a special national caucus 
October 22, to be attended by the President, Vice President, 
members of the PDP National Executive Committee, PDP 
Governors, and the National Assembly PDP leadership.  The 
caucus met and agreed to hold the party's national convention 
December 11-13, and to discuss there preparations for the 
2007 elections, possible changes to the party's constitution, 
and geographical balance for major party positions.  The 
party's national economic policy, i.e. President Obasanjo's 
GON economic policy, supposedly will also be on the 
convention agenda for discussion. 
 
 
2. (SBU) The caucus did not showcase an organized and 
committed PDP.  The opening session started two hours late 
while members waited for Obasanjo's arrival.  PDP National 
Chairman Audu Ogbeh finally opened the session, but 20 
minutes into his remarks the President arrived and took over 
the meeting.  Of the PDP's 28 state governors, only five were 
present at the beginning of the day and three more arrived 
shortly before the session adjourned.  Speaker of the House 
Bello Masari only showed up at eight PM, nearly six hours 
after the start of the opening session and only minutes 
before the caucus adjourned.  Vice President Atiku did not 
appear at all, and several other senior politicians and 
founding members of the PDP chose not to attend. 
 
 
3. (U) The caucus was short on comraderie too.  PDP Chairman 
Ogbeh announced that elected PDP representatives and senators 
would no longer be allowed to criticize President Obasanjo or 
his policies in public.  These "anti-party" activities would 
result in severe disciplinary action against the miscreants. 
Ogbeh claimed that no Democrat in the U.S. Congress had voted 
for the impeachment of former President Bill Clinton, and 
that should be the standard within the PDP.  Ogbeh also 
announced that PDP members would soon be required to pay dues 
to the party.  Numerous National Assembly members have since 
responded by attacking Ogbeh in the press, probably not the 
intended result of Ogbeh's stricture against criticizing the 
party leader. 
 
 
4. (SBU) The PDP is in turmoil in some places outside Abuja 
too.  In Niger State, the PDP chapter has begun an attempt to 
recall Senator Idris Ibrahim Kuta for "nonperformance" and 
"distancing himself from his constituency."  The PDP National 
Working Committee suspended the Nasarawa State PDP Chairman 
on October 21 for various alleged anti-party activities, 
although he was reinstated one week later.  And the Supreme 
Court is now hearing cases on whether previous terms in 
office under military rule prior to 1999 count toward the 
1999 Constitution's two-term limit for governors, which 
affects Taraba State PDP Governor Jolly Nyame. 
 
 
5. (C) COMMENT: Ogbeh's "gag rule" did little to gain 
solidarity within the PDP, but rather irritated the typical 
self-interested, arrogant politician that Nigeria tends to 
produce.  The President dominates the party as he does the 
government, and attempts to dominate the PDP National 
Assembly caucus and governors.  With that dominance, he often 
wins these days as the "last man standing" when institutions 
fracture under his opponents in the labor unions, the 
opposition parties, and even his own PDP -- as respectively 
on gasoline deregulation (to date), weeding out the 
independents from the Independent National Electoral 
Commission, and imposing an unelected Senate President and 
House Speaker on the National Assembly.  The "last man 
standing" tactic may gain Obasanjo victory on each issue in a 
Nigerian political environment of shaky institutions he could 
not otherwise meld into winning coalitions, but at the cost 
of further weakening Nigeria's institutions and further 
alienating Nigerians. 
MEECE