US embassy cable - 03ABUJA1872

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001872 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/28/2013 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PHUM, NI 
SUBJECT: BUHARI'S SUITS AGAINST OBASANJO'S ELECTION: THE 
SAGA CONTINUES 
 
 
REF: ABUJA 1707 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY CDA ROGER MEECE FOR REASONS 1.5 (b) AND (d). 
 
 
1. (S) SUMMARY:  ANPP Presidential candidate Muhammadu 
Buhari's court cases against the flawed April elections 
continued over the past two weeks with hearings examining 
both the election results and the May decision to go ahead 
with Obasanjo's inauguration.  At the Appeals Court hearing 
the case against the election results, Buhari's attorneys 
continued to make points with the judges and with the public 
by presenting evidence of fraud, intimidation and rigging. 
Obasanjo's attorneys admitted their defense in this suit 
would not refute the allegations of rigging, but would rely 
on the fact that removing Obasanjo and holding another 
election could be "disruptive."  The Buhari presentation to 
the Supreme Court could add to the pressure on Obasanjo if it 
finds that the case has merit (as the lower court did), and 
then decides that Obasanjo's inauguration was invalid.  While 
most are skeptical that the judiciary can exhibit much 
independence in its decisions, observers are heartened by the 
courts' apparent predilection to admit the evidence.  Buhari 
claims that "the issue will be settled by December 31," but 
we remain doubtful that the legal process can proceed at that 
pace.  End Summary. 
 
 
2.  (U) ANPP Presidential candidate Muhammadu Buhari's court 
cases against the flawed April elections continued over the 
past two weeks, with smaller local crowds but observers from 
the European Union joining us in attendance.  Last week, the 
petition against INEC's election results continued in the 
Federal Appeals Court with evidence from Adamawa State 
(moving on to Vice President Atiku's home state, after 
starting the case with evidence of fraud in Obasanjo's Ogun 
State -- reftel).  Buhari's attorneys continue to make points 
with the judges and the public with their evidence, although 
the presentation comes in fits and starts.  In presenting the 
Adamawa case, observers suffered through rambling narrations 
of "intimidation and rigging" by former Senator Paul Wampana 
and ANPP Gubernatorial candidate Adamu Mu'azu Modibbo before 
being treated to the legal wrangling over the admission of 
evidence.  While both witnesses painted a grim picture of 
election day in Adamawa, details were sparse in early 
testimony.  Buhari's lead attorney Chief Mike Ahamba then 
attempted to enter into evidence a CD-ROM from INEC 
containing a voter list.  Obasanjo's attorney Afe Babalola 
immediately objected, saying that Nigeria's legal code did 
not allow for electronic documents to be submitted as 
evidence.  He then complained that the INEC-supplied list 
would not have been given to the ANPP had INEC known that it 
could be used in court and restated his argument that the 
only valid evidence that should be tendered is INEC's 
announced results and not the source documents from polling 
places and collation centers. 
 
 
3.  (U)  After deliberation, the justices allowed all of 
Ahamba's evidence into the record and asked that the two 
counsels meet to agree on guidelines for submitting evidence, 
to eliminate the delays caused by Babalola's objections, only 
one of which had been upheld.  (NOTE:  The one upheld was 
against a video of an Atiku speech recorded from a 
pre-election broadcast.  The judges said that the ANPP should 
have obtained the original tape from the broadcaster instead 
of relying on the copy.  The transcript of the broadcast, 
however, was placed in the record, a minor victory for 
Buhari's legal team.  END NOTE.)  INEC's new counsel, Chief 
Ebun Sofunde, continued his predecessor's habit of echoing 
Babalola's objections without expanding.  Ahamba led his 
witnesses to describe ANPP polling agents jailed on election 
day, roadblocks set up to prevent observers from traveling, 
and fraudulent returns exemplified by reports of 100 percent 
turnout in some areas.  Ahamba entered into evidence voter 
cards, without the mark or tear used to indicate the holders 
had voted, from the areas reporting the unanimous turnout. 
 
 
4.  (S)  One senior counsel for Obasanjo told Poloff that 
they would not attempt to argue against the ANPP's claims of 
rigging directly.  "We know the elections were rigged," he 
said.  Instead, the group hopes to delay the trial through 
objections and adjournments.  In the end, he commented, "our 
strategy is to claim that removing Obasanjo and holding new 
elections would be disruptive regardless of the legal 
merits."  ANPP's counsel continues to express optimism about 
the strength of the case, but remains concerned about the 
pace of the trial.  Buhari himself continues to express 
confidence in the judiciary and claims that "the issue will 
be settled by December 31." 
 
 
5.  (U)  A corollary case is at the Supreme Court to decide 
whether Obasanjo's inauguration was valid.  Initially filed 
with the Appeals Court, the case sought to prevent Obasanjo's 
May 29 inauguration.  At the original hearing, the Appeals 
Court stated that the case had merit, but that to delay the 
inauguration would create problems and confusion, "disrupting 
the country."  The ANPP case is based on various precedents 
from Nigeria's previous democratic dispensations that held 
that candidates could not assume office until all legal 
challenges are settled.  Again, in this case, Obasanjo's 
attorneys will argue against "disruption" of the system: 
that, regardless of the legal issues, Obasanjo is in power 
and should remain there for the benefit of peace. 
 
 
6.  (C)  COMMENT:  Observers are heartened that the justices 
sitting on these cases are apparently approaching their 
duties with professionalism, allowing the ANPP/Buhari legal 
team to present its case.  Still, most observers are 
skeptical the judges will be allowed to exhibit that 
independence in their final decisions.  And while Buhari may 
be confident of the case proceeding swiftly, we remain 
doubtful that the legal process, as witnessed to date, will 
speed up to resolve the issues before the end of the year. 
Whether Buhari was referring strictly to the legal decisions 
being rendered by December 31, or to some other settling of 
the dispute by that date, is an open question. 
MEECE