US embassy cable - 03COLOMBO1867

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 COLOMBO 001867 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, INR/NESA 
NSC FOR E. MILLARD 
DEPARTMENT PLEASE ALSO PASS TOPEC 
 
E.O. 12958:  DECL:  10-30-13 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, PREL, PTER, CE, NO 
SUBJECT:  President Kumaratunga lashes out -- and 
reinforces her reputation for volatility 
 
Refs:  (A) Colombo 1861   (D) Colombo 1684 
 
-      (B) Singapore 3893 (E) Colombo 1642 
-      (C) Colombo 1754   (F) Colombo 1615 
 
(U) Classified by Charge' d'Affaires James F. Entwistle. 
Reasons 1.5 (b, d). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  An in-depth review of President 
Kumaratunga's behavior over the past several weeks shows 
her lashing out in numerous ways.  The main subject of 
her broadsides continues to be her cohabitation rival, 
the Prime Minister, but she also hit out at a slew of 
targets during a recent visit to Singapore.  In 
addition, Tamils have recently taken a hit, as have the 
Norwegian-led monitors.  If there is a method here, the 
President seems intent on ramping up the pressure in 
order to undermine the GSL, but her means of doing so 
are reinforcing her reputation for volatility and 
unpredictability.  The net result is that the prospects 
for improved cohabitation between the President and the 
Prime Minister are very poor.  END SUMMARY. 
 
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- 
President Hits out at PM 
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- 
 
2.  (C) Over the past several weeks, President 
Kumaratunga has lashed out at numerous targets.  The 
main subject of her broadsides has been her cohabitation 
rival, Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe.  The latest 
round of cohabitation jousting between the two began in 
mid-September when the President sent a letter to the PM 
asserting that the GSL was not taking Tamil Tiger 
military positioning around Trincomalee harbor seriously 
enough (see Ref F).  In the letter's conclusion, the 
President caustically informed the Prime Minister that 
he should "refrain from concealing and distorting the 
truth regarding the security situation in Trincomalee" 
and "avoid all further acts of omission and commission 
that would compromise the security and sovereignty of 
Sri Lanka."  The letter was leaked to the press and 
received widespread publicity. 
 
3.  (C) The cohabitation dustup only intensified on 
September 18 when the Prime Minister responded to the 
President's letter (see Ref E).  While his letter was 
not as harsh in tone as hers, the PM strongly defended 
his record on security issues and criticized the 
President for discussing security issues in public. 
This provoked another letter from the President dated 
October 6 (se Ref D).  In this letter, the President was 
again highly caustic, calling the PM's comments on the 
security situation "evasive."  It closed by advising the 
PM "to attempt seriously, if it is at all possible, to 
put the country before self and the desire to remain in 
power at any cost."  As far as Mission knows, the Prime 
Minister has not bothered to respond to the President's 
October 6 letter. 
 
4.  (C) In her most recent public attack on the PM and 
his government, Kumaratunga targeted C. Mahendran, Sri 
Lanka's Permanent Representative at the UN.  The form 
the attack took was again a letter that was made public. 
In it, the President threatened to fire Mahendran, 
asserting that he had deliberately scheduled the PM -- 
as opposed to the President -- to speak at this year's 
UNGA.  It is not known whether Mahendran has responded 
to this letter. 
 
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=--=-=-=-=- 
Harsh Sounds in Singapore 
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=--=-=-=-=- 
 
5.  (C) Kumaratunga also hit out at a slew of targets 
during a recent visit to Singapore: 
 
-- Kumaratunga gave a speech on October 14 at the World 
Economic Forum in which she criticized developed 
nations, stating, in part:  "We do not comprehend how 
rich nations demand of us to abandon to the whims of the 
global markets vulnerable sectors of our society when 
they practice extensive protectionist policies in their 
own countries."  The speech received considerable local 
publicity and was contrasted with the cooperative 
approach of the Sri Lankan delegation at the recent 
World Trade Organization meeting in Cancun.  In the face 
of domestic criticism of the speech, the president's 
advisers later backpedaled a bit, asserting that she was 
not speaking out against bilateral or regional free 
trade agreements. 
 
-- While in Singapore the President also gave an 
interview, which was published in the October 15 edition 
of the "International Herald Tribune."  In the 
interview, Kumaratunga criticized the government's peace 
initiative, asserting that the Tamil Tigers were taking 
advantage of the process.  She also threatened the PM's 
government, stating:  "Under our constitution, the Prime 
Minister is only a glorified minister.  All it takes is 
a one sentence letter from me to dismiss him and his 
entire cabinet."  Kumaratunga's interview sparked 
considerable controversy back in Sri Lanka, where 
business executives and editorials complained that the 
President was making Sri Lanka look politically unstable 
to the rest of the international community just as it 
was poised to recover lost economic ground. 
 
-- Finally, according to her Singapore government hosts, 
President Kumaratunga also came off as quite difficult 
to handle during the visit (see Ref B).  She expressed 
disappointment with her schedule and asserted that she 
had not been received with full ceremonial honors. 
Singapore officials were also taken aback by her 
bitterness toward Prime Minister Wickremesinghe. 
 
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- 
Tamils take a Blow 
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- 
 
6.  (C) Tamils have also taken a blow from Kumaratunga. 
The controversy involved a rally that the President's 
Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), the key constituent 
element in her People's Alliance (PA) grouping, had 
scheduled for October 24.  Tamils complained that the 
SLFP rally was taking place the same day as Diwali, a 
major Hindu holiday, and asked that it be rescheduled 
for another date.  The President refused and the rally 
went forward.  Although there were no reported problems 
associated with the rally, Tamils were extremely angry 
with the President for not honoring their request, which 
they felt was a sign of disrespect.  In fact, one Tamil 
PA MP in her party was so angry that he threatened to 
bolt to the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) before calming 
down and returning to the PA. 
 
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- 
Norwegian Chief Monitor Targeted 
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- 
 
7.  (C) In recent days, the President has also taken on 
the Norwegian-led Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) 
(see Ref A).  After weeks in which members of her party 
had stepped up criticism of the Norwegian government's 
facilitation effort, the President struck on October 23, 
sending a letter to the GoN demanding the removal of 
SLMM chief Tryggve Tellefsen.  In her letter, 
Kumaratunga asserted that Tellefsen was biased toward 
the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), citing an 
October 16 incident in which a SLMM official had 
contacted the Tigers about a purported LTTE arms 
resupply ship operating off the northeast coast.  The 
Norwegian government, playing for time, has sent the 
President a placeholder response emphasizing that Norway 
is looking into the matter. 
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-= 
Ramping Up the Pressure 
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-= 
 
8.  (C) In explaining all of these abrasive steps, 
contacts have told Mission that they believe President 
Kumaratunga is trying to up the pressure on the Prime 
Minister's government dramatically.  In an October 29 
meeting with polchief, Taranjit Sandhu, the Indian High 
Commission polcouns, said he believed that Kumaratunga 
was trying to press whatever buttons she could to pry 
some MPs away from the PM's fragile coalition in 
Parliament so that it would fall.  Sandhu remarked that 
he thought the President was misled if she thought she 
could do this because he thought the PM was "stronger 
than ever" and would win parliamentary elections if the 
President called them.  Essentially agreeing with 
Sandhu, Kethesh Loganathan, an analyst at the Center for 
Policy Alternatives, a local think-tank, told polchief 
on October 16 that he assumed that the President was 
"trying to bring on the heat" ahead of the upcoming mid- 
November budget debate, which "for any government is 
always a tricky time."  Loganathan said he really did 
not see how the President's recent moves had improved 
her positioning vis-a-vis the government, however, as 
her actions were "not well aimed, nor well considered." 
 
=-=-=-= 
COMMENT 
=-=-=-= 
 
9.  (C) As noted, the method in Kumaratunga's seeming 
madness appears to be an effort to undermine the PM's 
government in coming months.  If that is true, 
Kumaratunga does not seem to be helping her case, and we 
agree with Sandhu and Loganathan that she is losing the 
popularity battle with the PM at this point.  We suspect 
the President is also irked by the PM's successful visit 
to India last week and his Oval Office meeting next week 
(an honor she has long sought). 
 
10.  (C) Moreover, her recent activities are reinforcing 
her reputation for volatile and unpredictable behavior, 
making her position even more difficult.  Observers say 
that while she was always mercurial that trait has 
gotten worse since the LTTE's failed attempt to 
assassinate her in December 1999 (she lost an eye in the 
bomb attack).  The President's behavior has fluctuated 
since the attack, but has generally veered toward 
vitriolic, hard-edged attacks on those who somehow 
displease her.  This trend is only getting worse.  That 
said, she can have good days.  For example, her 
conversation with Ambassador Lunstead after credentials 
presentation last month went well, as the President was 
gracious and cordial, though her bitterness toward the 
government and the LTTE was clear (see Ref D).  (The 
President was also a charming host at a farewell dinner 
for the Japanese Ambassador earlier this week, even 
keeping a smile on her face when the departing envoy 
sang several of his favorite Sinhalese ballads.) 
Overall, however, signs for cohabitation are very poor 
if the President does not adjust her behavior. 
Kumaratunga's current mindset would make it very hard 
for the PM to work with her, even if he could be 
convinced to reach out.  END COMMENT. 
 
11.  (U) Minimize considered. 
 
ENTWISTLE