US embassy cable - 03GUATEMALA2769

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 GUATEMALA 002769 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/28/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PINR, KDEM, MOPS, PREL, EAID, GT 
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR DISCUSSES ELECTIONS WITH RIOS MONTT 
 
Classified By: PolCouns David Lindwall for reason 1.5 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary:  In an October 29 breakfast with the 
Ambassador, FRG presidential candidate Rios Montt said he 
would respect the outcome of the election, whatever it is. 
He expressed concern about technical problems with the voter 
registration list ("padron") and locally organized acts of 
violence in the countryside against his campaign, but thought 
the election would be free and fair.  Vice Presidential 
candidate Barrientos said that FRG optimism over their 
"expected electoral victory" is not based on polls (which 
have long shown the FRG in a distant third place), but rather 
on their contact with the masses.  The Ambassador said that, 
should the FRG win the election, they would have an uphill 
battle proving to the international community that they 
represented change, and they would need to make an early 
priority of showing that they will promote human rights, 
fight corruption and transnational crime and engage on free 
trade.  End summary. 
 
2. (C) On October 29, the Ambassador, DCM and Political 
Counselor met over breakfast at the Residence with FRG 
candidate and former General Efrain Rios Montt, Vice 
Presidential Candidate Edin Barrientos and First Vice 
President of Congress (and daughter of Rios Montt) Zury Rios 
as part of a series of breakfasts with the leading 
presidential hopefuls.  The General, who had not been in the 
Residence in a long time, was at ease, and the meeting was 
candid. 
 
3. (C)  Rios Montt said that the election campaign was going 
well and that he thought it would be free and fair.  He 
expressed concern, however, that some opposition parties, at 
least at the local level, had promoted a climate of 
intolerance against his campaign and had stirred up crowds to 
keep him from holding rallies.  He mentioned the incident in 
Rabinal in June and this week's incident in La Independencia, 
Huehuetenango (Note: The ex-PAC hostage incident began as an 
effort to prevent the FRG from holding a rally. End note) as 
examples.  He added that he had concerns about the 
reliability of the voter registration list ("padron 
electoral"), noting that "serious problems" with the list of 
voters in San Miguel Petapa (a working class suburb of 
Guatemala City) which just came to light this week, revealed 
that some voters were shown as eligible to vote in numerous 
locations.  While Rios Montt said he agreed with the 
Ambassador that the indelible ink and other safeguards are 
sufficient to see to it that this technical error by the 
Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) does not lead to double 
voting, he feared that the same error could lead to the 
exclusion of many eligible voters. (Comment: This later 
concern is real.  A study just completed of the new "padron" 
by FLACSO, a highly reputed NGO, found that the list has 
flaws that might/might lead to the exclusion of some voters 
on election day.  While voters will believe this is a 
political manipulation to keep them from voting, it appears 
to be simply a technical problem arising from the TSE's 
overhaul of the "padron." The problem should affect voters 
from every party equally.) 
 
4. (C) The Ambassador commented that post-electoral violence, 
particularly at the municipal level, is a historical reality 
in Guatemala, and said the national leaders of the parties, 
therefore, have a responsibility to respect the outcome and 
ensure that their supporters do not engage in violence.  Rios 
Montt said that the FRG respected the outcome in 1995 even 
when they were deprived of victory by a premeditated cut in 
the electrical power to the vote-counting center, which 
allowed the powers in control to alter the results (Comment: 
The electricity did/did go off -- for three hours.  But 
international observers at that election doubted fraud 
occurred. End comment).  He said they would respect the 
outcome this time, whatever it is.  Rios Montt said that he 
and his party represent a vision for a new Guatemala, and not 
personal interests.  If the people of Guatemala share that 
vision, they will elect him, he said.  If not, he would 
accept that and move on.  He argued that the election has 
nothing to do with his immunity from prosecution, saying that 
the Supreme Court (which is not controlled by Rios Montt), 
could lift his immunity at any time. 
 
5. (C) Barrientos expressed confidence that the Guatemalan 
people would vote overwhelmingly for the FRG, and that they 
would win on the first round.  When the Ambassador asked 
Barrientos what their polls were telling them, Barrientos 
dodged the question saying that the FRG's calculation of 
victory comes from their contact with the masses (Note: 
President Portillo told the Ambassador that the FRG's polls 
show the FRG will have an uphill struggle to get into the 
second round.  End note).  Barrientos argued that the FRG had 
reached 700,000 people with their message during the 
campaign, and that that represented over two million votes. 
He further argued that during the past four years, the FRG 
government had benefited over 800,000 farmers with subsidized 
fertilizers.  He extrapolated from that data that the FRG 
would have more than the 50% of valid votes necessary to win 
on the first round.  Neither Rios Montt nor Zury Rios 
commented on the possible outcome of the election (Comment: 
Barrientos studiously avoided addressing the FRG's 
third-place ranking in all the polls.  His suggestion that 
reaching 700,000 individuals with the FRG's message would 
translate into over two million votes for the FRG is too 
exaggerated to be self-delusion, and appears to be putting 
the best public face on a campaign that has encountered 
significant voter antipathy. End comment). 
 
6. (C) The Ambassador told Rios Montt that we will respect 
the outcome of elections that are "clearly free and fair." 
Should Rios Montt win, he would have a difficult relationship 
with the international community, us included, and it was in 
his interest to move quickly to demonstrate his commitment to 
human rights, to control corruption and transnational crime 
and to engage on free trade.  The Ambassador added that 
concerns about fraud and manipulation in this election made 
it imperative that the FRG not engage in behavior on election 
day that could cast doubts on whether the election was free 
and fair.  Rios Montt acknowledged the point, said that he 
understood the importance of addressing the concerns of the 
international community, "especially the United States," but 
then lapsed into a defense of his "war on communism," arguing 
that international opposition to him was generated solely 
from the fact that he "defeated the communists."  Rios Montt 
and Zury Rios criticized the corruption of senior advisors to 
the current government, implicitly distancing themselves from 
Portillo.  Their impassioned indictment of government 
corruption and their claim that if elected they would put an 
end to corruption by prosecuting those who have abused of the 
resources of the state blithely ignored the fact that their 
party has been in charge of the government for the past four 
years and that the corrupt officials they are referring to 
were brought to power by their electoral victory in 1999. 
 
7. (C) Comment: Rios Montt did not come across as a candidate 
who is fighting the defining battle of his political career. 
Even his complaints about violence against his rallies and 
the problems of the voter registration list were clearly not 
major concerns that he expected us to resolve.  He does not 
appear to understand how controversial his "vision for 
Guatemala" is with many voters, but was up front is saying 
that if the voters don't buy it, he won't insist.  With the 
exception of Barrientos' unconvincing account of how getting 
the FRG's message to voters would result in a first round 
victory (and damn the polls), there was no triumphalism in 
their expression.  It was clear that, should they win, the 
FRG wants the assurance that there will be some level of 
engagement with the USG in areas of mutual interest.  It was 
also clear that they still don't understand that the FRG can 
only repair its image with us and other members of the 
international community by facing honestly and openly the 
human rights violations of the war and the corruption of the 
current FRG government. 
HAMILTON