US embassy cable - 03GUATEMALA2764

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 GUATEMALA 002764 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/27/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, KDEM, PINR, EAID, GT, UN 
SUBJECT: ELECTION SNAPSHOT #3: LEGACY OF NEGLECT LIVES ON 
IN QUICHE 
 
REF: GUATEMALA 2728 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Katharine Read for reason 1.5 (d). 
 
1. (SBU) Summary: Voters in Quiche, historically a bastion of 
the FRG, told us that their votes this time would be for any 
candidate other than the former General.  Berger and Colom 
led the pack of presidential preferences. While there is 
little concern among the international observers or the local 
TSE over the potential for election day fraud, several 
 
SIPDIS 
expressed concern over the possibility of manipulation of 
voters by the FRG and violence after the poll results are 
known. End Summary. 
 
2. (SBU) On October 23 and 24, PolOff and EconOff traveled to 
Santa Cruz del Quiche and Nebaj to gauge voter preferences 
and determine what issues are most important to voters in 
that highly rural province.  Voters in the highly rural, 
desperately poor and predominantly indigenous province of El 
Quiche in 1995 and 1999 voted overwhelmingly for the FRG, and 
recent FRG internal documents claim that El Quiche has the 
highest percentage of FRG voters of any of Guatemala's 
departments.  Emboffs met with European Union observation 
mission officials, the TSE delegate in Nebaj, the local 
coordinator for the UN verification mission (MINUGUA), and 
the director of the Catholic social relief office. 
Man-on-the-street interviews were conducted in both locales. 
 
EU Mission Paints a Picture of Voter Manipulation 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
3. (C) The two-person team from the EU observation mission, 
who have been living in the Quiche for the last month, 
expressed concern about potential manipulation by the FRG of 
the election, and the possibility of fraud.  They saw the 
ex-PAC payments as a "vote-buying" tactic and said they 
observed individuals in line to receive payments that were 
too young to have actually participated in the ex-PAC 
activities.  They also viewed the distribution of discounted 
fertilizer and machetes as an attempt by the FRG government 
to influence voters (Comment: A prestigious NGO, under a 
grant from USAID, has had mild criticism of the ex-PAC 
payments, but found no political favoritism in the fertilizer 
program. End comment). 
 
4. (C) The EU team opined that low literacy rates in the 
Quiche make for a different type of election than in more 
developed, educated parts of Guatemala.  For example, in 
Nebaj, of its 53,617 residents, only 36 percent are 
registered to vote.  However, only 32 percent of those 
registered to vote are literate.  This lack of formal 
education, as well as the overwhelming poverty which afflicts 
the Quiche, accounts for the voters' disinterest in national 
issues and their focus on local politics.  The EU mission 
also believe that Quiche voters are more prone to believe 
rumors of supposed violations of privacy on election day 
(i.e. cameras in the voting booths), to be intimidated by 
threats and violence, and to accept bribes from local 
leaders, than voters in other parts of Guatemala might be. 
 
Local TSE Delegate Discusses Election 
------------------------------------- 
 
5. (C) In Nebaj, the TSE delegate Mynor Beteta Giron, told us 
that national politicians lack the vision to improve 
conditions in this remote town.  He does not believe there 
will be actual fraud on election day, but expressed concern 
about the potential for violence, and particularly violence 
against his person, if the local FRG mayoral candidate does 
not win.  He said that the candidate himself threatened 
Giron.  The local "caudillo" is the leader of the "Comite 
Civico Todos Nebajenses" (COTON), Pedro Raymundo Cobo, who is 
running for his third re-election as mayor. He won 
overwhelmingly in the 1999 election.  Mynor Beteta told us 
that the primary concerns of the local voters, who are among 
the most impoverished in Guatemala, are health and jobs. 
 
MINUGUA Official Relates Atmosphere of Fear 
------------------------------------------- 
 
6. (C) In Nebaj, MINUGUA official Beatriz Lafuente told us 
the level of political tension had risen, driven particularly 
by local elections. Inflamed rhetoric has been coming from 
different political parties in the weeks leading up to the 
election, and is not coming only from the FRG. Once again, 
the common thread was concern that GOG payments to the ex-PAC 
were being manipulated by the FRG. She does not anticipate 
fraud on election day, but said voters fear their votes will 
not be secret. There is concern that the losing party will 
dispute local elections, and there is a palpable fear of 
violence in the community. 
 
7. (C) Lafuente attributed support for Rios Montt in the Ixil 
triangle to the perception that he "saved" the area from the 
brutality of the Lucas Garcia regime in the early 1980s. 
While "the General" used scorched-earth tactics in parts of 
the northern Quiche, he instituted the "beans for bullets" 
and model village programs in the Ixil triangle during his 
dictatorship. 
 
Taking the Pulse of Nebaj 
------------------------- 
 
8. (SBU) In response to Emboffs' man-on-the-street interviews 
in Nebaj, it was clear that voters were polarized around Rios 
Montt.  Only 22 percent of respondents said they would vote 
for the General.  They cited the FRG's track record in 
providing security and rural development as reasons to vote 
for Rios Montt.  The 78 percent who opposed Rios Montt were 
less enthusiastic about their chosen candidate and appeared 
to largely be voting against the FRG.  Berger had a slight 
lead among those interviewed, with 33 percent supporting him, 
compared to 28 percent for Colom. 
 
9. (SBU) Nebaj voter preferences: 72 percent of respondents 
thought the electoral process would be transparent, 17 
percent thought it would have much fraud, and 11 percent were 
not sure. Unemployment and security were tied with 28 percent 
of respondents citing these as the dominant concerns for the 
new administration.  Only 17 percent of those interviewed 
thought the FRG had done a good job over the past 4 years, 28 
percent said it had done a bad job, and 56 percent were not 
sure or said it was neither good nor bad, a statistic 
reflecting the lack of importance Nebaj voters attach to 
national political issues. 
 
Colom Commands the Streets of Santa Cruz del Quiche 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
10. (SBU) While located less than 30 miles from Nebaj 
geographically, the views of voters in Santa Cruz are worlds 
apart.  Not one of the 18 people interviewed in Santa Cruz 
del Quiche expressed support for Rios Montt. The clear 
favorite in the survey was Colom, with 50 percent of the 
people saying he is the best choice for president. In 
explaining their choice for Colom, respondents pointed to his 
honesty and origins outside of the political oligarchy as his 
biggest assets. Trailing not far behind was Berger, picking 
up 39% of the support of respondents. 
 
11. (SBU) Another glaring difference in the voting dynamic 
between Santa Cruz and Nebaj was the number of people who 
thought there would be fraud during the electoral process: 72 
percent of voters in Santa Cruz think there will be fraud in 
the election process, while 72 percent of people in Nebaj 
think the elections will be transparent. Votes in both cities 
place similar emphasis on unemployment (39 percent) and 
insecurity (33 percent) as major concerns the new 
administration faces. Eighty-eight percent of Santa Cruz 
voters responded that the current administration had done a 
bad job, while all 18 of those surveyed said they would not 
reelect the FRG. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
12. (C) It is clear that local issues dominate towns in the 
Quiche and disinterest in national politics is pervasive. 
Fraud is not a major worry of international observers in the 
Quiche, but the possibility of FRG manipulation is a concern 
spread largely by rumors shared among this largely illiterate 
populace.  National politicians pay little attention to this 
highly indigenous, remote region and most of our contacts in 
the Quiche believe that neglect is unlikely to change with 
any new administration. 
HAMILTON