US embassy cable - 00HARARE3460

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 07 HARARE 003460 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF PDAS NANCY POWELL, AF DAS WITNEY SCHNEIDMAN, 
AND AF/S - ARLENE RENDER 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
DOL FOR ILAB/ROBERT SHEPARD 
 
TREASURY FOR OASIA/RALYEA AND NATAN EPSTEIN 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  03460  01 OF 07  231346Z 
USDOC FOR DHENKE-ROGERS 
 
LONDON FOR PFLAUMER 
 
PARIS FOR WILLIAMS 
 
PASS USAID WASHDC FOR AFR/SA - NAN NEWMAN, OTI - MARC 
SCOTT, AND A/AID - RICHARD MCCALL 
 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/22/2000 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ELAB, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT: DESPITE STIFF COMPETITION, POTENTIAL FOR 
VIOLENCE IN SOME AREAS, AND EXPECTED VOTE RIGGING, MDC 
LIKELY TO WIN ABOUT 60 SEATS 
 
REF: HARARE 3382 
 
CLASSIFIED BY LABOFF SHAWN THORNE FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) 
AND (D). 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY: ON THE EVE OF THE JUNE 24-25 
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS, THIS CABLE OFFERS POST'S 
PREDICTIONS FOR HOTSPOTS AND TOUGH RACES AMONG 
CONSTITUENCIES IN ZIMBABWE'S TEN PROVINCES. THE MDC IS 
EXPECTED TO FARE VERY WELL IN MOST PROVINCES, WITH ITS 
TOUGHEST CHALLENGE COMING FROM THE TRADITIONAL ZANU-PF 
STRONGHOLDS OF THE "THREE MASHONALANDS" (MASHONALAND 
CENTRAL, EAST, AND WEST), AND MASVINGO. POST PREDICTS A 
WIN OF ABOUT 60 SEATS FOR THE MDC, ALTHOUGH OPPOSITION 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  03460  01 OF 07  231346Z 
LEADERS HAVE TOLD US THEY EXPECT TO WALK AWAY WITH 80-85 
CONSTITUENCIES. LIKELY VOTE RIGGING CLEARLY WOULD AFFECT 
THOSE NUMBERS. WHILE WE EXPECT THE ELECTION WEEKEND TO 
BE REASONABLY QUIET, THE POTENTIAL FOR VIOLENCE WILL 
INCREASE GREATLY IN THE JUNE 26-28 PERIOD, AS RESULTS 
FROM EACH CONSTITUENCY ARE ANNOUNCED. IN THE RURAL 
AREAS, MUGABE ALMOST CERTAINLY WILL GIVE WAR VETERANS 
THE GREEN LIGHT TO SEEK REVENGE AGAINST COMMERCIAL 
FARMERS, THEIR EMPLOYEES, AND COMMUNAL RESIDENTS SHOULD 
THE RURAL VOTE NOT GO ZANU-PF'S WAY. END SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------- 
VIOLENCE DURING ELECTIONS 
------------------------- 
 
2. (C) ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR VIOLENCE IN THE CITIES 
AND ON OCCUPIED FARMS AFTER THE ELECTIONS IS HIGH, POST 
EXPECTS JUNE 24 AND 25 TO BE REASONABLY QUIET DAYS AT 
THE POLLS, WITH ONLY ISOLATED SKIRMISHES BETWEEN RIVAL 
PARTIES OCCURRING IN SOME HOTSPOTS. THE ZIMBABWE 
REPUBLIC POLICE INTENDS TO DEPLOY 30,000 OFFICERS TO THE 
COUNTRY'S 4,000 POLLING STATIONS OVER THE VOTING 
WEEKEND, AND ARMED MILITARY PERSONNEL ALSO ARE EXPECTED 
TO BE VISIBLE. DESPITE SUCH DETERRENTS, SEVERAL HOTSPOTS 
COULD SEE OUTBREAKS OF FIGHTING, PARTICULARLY IN THE 
HIGH-DENSITY SUBURBS AND OCCUPIED FARMING AREAS. 
FOLLOWING ARE SOME CONSTITUENCIES WHERE VIOLENCE IS MORE 
LIKELY TO OCCUR: 
 
-- BUDIRIRO, HARARE PROVINCE: A HIGH-DENSITY SUBURB AND 
HOME TO WAR VETERANS' LEADER CHENJERAI "HITLER" HUNZVI'S 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  03460  01 OF 07  231346Z 
MEDICAL OFFICES, WHERE MDC SUPPORTERS ALLEGEDLY HAVE 
BEEN TORTURED. 
 
-- CHITUNGWIZA AND HIGHFIELD, HARARE PROVINCE: TWO OF 
THE CAPITAL'S LARGEST HIGH-DENSITY SUBURBS. 
 
-- PLUMTREE, BULAWAYO PROVINCE: A LARGE PERI-URBAN AREA 
ON THE BOTSWANA BORDER. 
 
-- KWEKWE, MIDLANDS: TERRITORY OF MINISTER OF JUSTICE 
AND PARLIAMENTARY AFFAIRS EMMERSON MNANGAGWA, A ZANU-PF 
HARD-LINER WHO HAS FULLY EMBRACED PRESIDENT MUGABE'S 
CAMPAIGN STRATEGY OF VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION. 
 
-- THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN MASHONALAND EAST: WEDZA, 
MUTOKO NORTH, MUTOKO SOUTH, MUDZI, MUREHWA NORTH, 
MUREHWA SOUTH, GOROMONZI, AND CHIKOMBA. THESE ARE 
COMMERCIAL FARMING AREAS HEAVILY OCCUPIED BY MILITANT 
WAR VETERANS AND OTHER ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS. MDC PRESIDENT 
MORGAN TSVANGIRAI HAS DECLARED THESE "NO-GO" AREAS FOR 
CAMPAIGNING MDC CANDIDATES, AND INCIDENTS OF VIOLENCE 
AGAINST FARM WORKERS -- AS WELL AS THREATS OF PUNISHMENT 
IF MDC WINS HERE -- ARE EXTREMELY NUMEROUS. 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ3098 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  03460  02 OF 07  231347Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   ACQ-00   CIAE-00  DINT-00  DODE-00 
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      VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00 
      PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00    USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00 
      DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /007W 
                  ------------------664AC0  231347Z /38 
P 231350Z JUN 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6402 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC PRIORITY 
DEPTTREAS WASHDC PRIORITY 
USDOC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 07 HARARE 003460 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF PDAS NANCY POWELL, AF DAS WITNEY SCHNEIDMAN, 
AND AF/S - ARLENE RENDER 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
DOL FOR ILAB/ROBERT SHEPARD 
 
TREASURY FOR OASIA/RALYEA AND NATAN EPSTEIN 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  03460  02 OF 07  231347Z 
USDOC FOR DHENKE-ROGERS 
 
LONDON FOR PFLAUMER 
 
PARIS FOR WILLIAMS 
 
PASS USAID WASHDC FOR AFR/SA - NAN NEWMAN, OTI - MARC 
SCOTT, AND A/AID - RICHARD MCCALL 
 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/22/2000 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ELAB, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT: DESPITE STIFF COMPETITION, POTENTIAL FOR 
VIOLENCE IN SOME AREAS, AND EXPECTED VOTE RIGGING, MDC 
LIKELY TO WIN ABOUT 60 SEATS 
 
----------------------------- 
PREDICTIONS FOR EACH PROVINCE 
----------------------------- 
 
3. (C) IN POST'S VIEW, THE ELECTION BATTLE IS LIKELY TO 
CENTER ON THE MDC'S EFFORTS TO WIN 76 SEATS AND SECURE A 
SIMPLE MAJORITY IN THE 150-SEAT PARLIAMENT. THE RACE 
WILL BE CLOSE, BUT IN THE END, WE PREDICT THE MDC 
PROBABLY WILL FALL SHORT OF THE 76. (OF COURSE, IN THE 
CASE OF RAMPANT RIGGING OR BALLOT BOX STUFFING, ALL BETS 
ARE OFF.) THE FOLLOWING IS A BREAKDOWN OF OUR 
PREDICTIONS BY PROVINCE, INCLUDING SOME NOTES ON TOUGH 
RACES IN PARTICULAR CONSTITUENCIES. 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  03460  02 OF 07  231347Z 
4. (C) HARARE (19 SEATS): THE MDC IS EXPECTED TO WIN A 
LARGE MAJORITY OF CONSTITUENCIES WITH VOTES FROM 
WORKERS, UNEMPLOYED YOUTH, THE BUSINESS COMMUNITY (WHITE 
AND BLACK), AND OTHER WELL INFORMED ZIMBABWEANS WHO 
BLAME THE RULING PARTY FOR THE COLLAPSE OF ZIMBABWE'S 
ECONOMY. 
 
-- IN HARARE NORTH, THOUGH, THE INDEPENDENT CANDIDATE 
CHESTER MHENDE IS FAVORED TO WIN OVER THE ZANU-PF AND 
MDC CANDIDATES. (TRUDY STEVENSON, THE MDC NOMINEE, IS A 
CONTROVERSIAL FIGURE AND NOT A NATIVE-BORN ZIMBABWEAN; 
SHE MAY HAVE DIFFICULTY GARNERING VOTES.) 
 
-- HARARE SOUTH ALSO IS EXPECTED TO BE A TOUGH RACE 
BETWEEN INCUMBENT MARGARET DONGO, PRESIDENT OF THE 
ZIMBABWE UNION OF DEMOCRATS AND CURRENTLY THE ONLY 
INDEPENDENT PARLIAMENTARIAN, ZANU-PF CANDIDATE VIVIAN 
MWASHITA, AND MDC CHALLENGER GABRIEL CHAIBVA. THE 
OUTCOME IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT; DONGO HAS STOOD THE 
TEST OF TIME IN HER CONSTITUENCY, RETAINS SUBSTANTIAL 
POPULARITY, BUT HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT MARGINALIZED ON THE 
NATIONAL POLITICAL SCENE. SHE HAS COMPLAINED 
VOCIFEROUSLY, HOWEVER, THAT AS A RESULT OF THE REDRAWING 
OF THE HARARE SOUTH BOUNDARIES BY THE DELIMITATION 
COMMISSION, ABOUT 5,000 SOLDIERS ON A NEARBY MILITARY 
BASE NOW ARE REGISTERED TO VOTE IN HER DISTRICT. DONGO 
IS WORRIED THAT THE MILITARY VOTES (EITHER GENUINE OR 
DOCTORED BY THE RULING PARTY) COULD SWING THE ELECTION 
IN FAVOR OF MWASHITA. THE MDC ALSO IS EXTREMELY POPULAR 
THROUGHOUT THE HARARE CONSTITUENCIES, AND CHAIBVA, WHILE 
NOT WELL KNOWN, CANNOT BE RULED OUT. 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  03460  02 OF 07  231347Z 
 
-- MDC CANDIDATES ARE EXPECTED TO WIN IN THE INFAMOUS 
CONSTITUENCIES OF BUDIRIRO (HOME OF HUNZVI'S SURGERY), 
AND CHITUNGWIZA (HARARE'S MOST CROWDED HIGH DENSITY 
SUBURB AND SITE OF FREQUENT VIOLENT CLASHES). 
 
5. (C) BULAWAYO (8 SEATS), MATABELELAND NORTH (7 SEATS), 
AND MATABELELAND SOUTH (8 SEATS): THE MDC IS EXPECTED TO 
WIN A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE SEATS IN THESE PROVINCES 
DOMINATED BY THE MARGINALIZED NDEBELE ETHNIC GROUP. THE 
MDC IS FIELDING A LOT OF UNKNOWN CANDIDATES IN THESE 
PROVINCES, THOUGH, AND MANY INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES ALSO 
ARE LOOKING TO SNATCH VOTES FROM THE RULING PARTY. FOR 
THEIR PART, MDC LEADERS ARE CONFIDENT THAT THE NDEBELES 
WILL SUPPORT THEM OVER INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES IN A 
PROTEST VOTE AGAINST THE HUMAN RIGHTS ATROCITIES 
SANCTIONED BY PRESIDENT MUGABE DURING THE MID-1980S. IN 
BOTH BULAWAYO SOUTH AND MAKOBA, HOWEVER, TWO POPULAR 
"INDEPENDENT" NDEBELE CANDIDATES STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF 
BEATING BOTH THE ZANU-PF AND MDC NOMINEES. CHARLES MPOFU 
(BULAWAYO SOUTH -- SEE BELOW) AND MATSON HLALO (MAKOBA - 
- SEE BELOW) ARE FORMER ZANU-PF'ERS WHO DEFECTED FROM 
THE RULING PARTY AFTER THE 1999 BULAWAYO CITY COUNCIL 
ELECTIONS AND STILL RETAIN SUBSTANTIAL POPULARITY IN 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ3101 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  03460  03 OF 07  231347Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   ACQ-00   CIAE-00  DINT-00  DODE-00 
      DOTE-00  WHA-00   SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00   FAAE-00 
      FBIE-00  VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   LAB-01   L-00 
      VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00 
      PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00    USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00 
      DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /007W 
                  ------------------664ACA  231347Z /38 
P 231350Z JUN 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6403 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC PRIORITY 
DEPTTREAS WASHDC PRIORITY 
USDOC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 07 HARARE 003460 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF PDAS NANCY POWELL, AF DAS WITNEY SCHNEIDMAN, 
AND AF/S - ARLENE RENDER 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
DOL FOR ILAB/ROBERT SHEPARD 
 
TREASURY FOR OASIA/RALYEA AND NATAN EPSTEIN 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  03460  03 OF 07  231347Z 
USDOC FOR DHENKE-ROGERS 
 
LONDON FOR PFLAUMER 
 
PARIS FOR WILLIAMS 
 
PASS USAID WASHDC FOR AFR/SA - NAN NEWMAN, OTI - MARC 
SCOTT, AND A/AID - RICHARD MCCALL 
 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/22/2000 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ELAB, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT: DESPITE STIFF COMPETITION, POTENTIAL FOR 
VIOLENCE IN SOME AREAS, AND EXPECTED VOTE RIGGING, MDC 
LIKELY TO WIN ABOUT 60 SEATS 
 
THEIR AREAS. 
 
-- BULAWAYO SOUTH: THIS WILL BE A VERY DIFFICULT RACE 
BETWEEN INDEPENDENT CHARLES MPOFU AND DAVID COLTART, THE 
MDC SECRETARY FOR LEGAL AFFAIRS AND A PROMINENT ATTORNEY 
AND HUMAN RIGHTS ACTIVIST. THE ZANU-PF CANDIDATE, 
CALLISTUS NDLOVU, IS NOT EXPECTED TO FARE WELL, AS HE IS 
A KNOWN CRITIC OF FORMER VICE PRESIDENT AND NDEBELE 
LEADER JOSHUA NKOMO. 
 
-- MAKOBA: THIS ALSO WILL BE A TOUGH RACE BETWEEN 
INDEPENDENT MATSON HLALO, A WELL-KNOWN NDEBELE 
POLITICIAN, POPULAR ZANU-PF CANDIDATE SITHEMBISO NYONI 
(A MINISTER OF STATE IN THE OFFICE OF THE VICE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  03460  03 OF 07  231347Z 
PRESIDENT), AND LITTLE KNOWN MDC CANDIDATE THOKOZANI 
KHUPE. 
 
-- NKULUMANE: A HIGH PROFILE AND DIFFICULT RACE WILL 
TAKE PLACE BETWEEN MINISTER OF HOME AFFAIRS DUMISO 
DABENGWA (AT ONE TIME A DISAFFECTED ZAPU DETAINEE), AND 
MDC VICE PRESIDENT GIBSON SIBANDA. BOTH ARE NDEBELE, AND 
BOTH ENJOY SUPPORT IN THE CONSTITUENCY. SIBANDA IS 
FAVORED TO WIN, THOUGH, BOTH BECAUSE OF HIS TRADE UNION 
ROOTS AND ASSOCIATION WITH THE MDC, AND BECAUSE OF 
DABENGWA'S IMAGE AS A LAME DUCK IN MUGABE'S CABINET WHO 
HAS TURNED HIS BACK ON HIS PEOPLE. IF SIBANDA WINS, IT 
WILL BE A VERY BIG VICTORY FOR THE MDC. 
 
-- BULAWAYO NORTH: FORMER BULAWAYO MAYOR JOSHUA MAHLINGA 
(ALSO AN ADVOCATE FOR THE RIGHTS OF THE DISABLED), FACES 
MDC SECRETARY GENERAL WELSHMAN NCUBE IN WHAT WILL LIKELY 
BE A VERY CLOSE RACE. NCUBE, A PROFESSOR OF LAW AT THE 
UNIVERSITY OF ZIMBABWE, RESIDES IN HARARE, HOWEVER, AND 
MAY NOT BE SEEN AS A MAN FROM THE COMMUNITY. 
 
6. (C) MANICALAND (14 SEATS): THE MDC IS EXPECTED TO WIN 
AT LEAST HALF THE SEATS HERE, ALTHOUGH A FEW LIKELY WILL 
BE LOST TO MORE POPULAR INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES. SEVERAL 
ZANU-PF'ERS WHO, ALTHOUGH POPULAR IN THEIR 
CONSTITUENCIES, LOST IN THE PRIMARIES TO CANDIDATES 
SUBMITTED AT THE LAST MINUTE BY THE RULING PARTY 
POLITBURO, ARE NOW RUNNING ON INDEPENDENT TICKETS. SOME, 
LIKE FORMER PARLIAMENTARY CHIEF WHIP MOSES MVENGE IN 
MUTARE CENTRAL, LAZARUS NZARAYEBANI IN MUTARE SOUTH, AND 
SHEPHERD MUKWEKWEZEKE IN MUTARE WEST, FORMERLY WERE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  03460  03 OF 07  231347Z 
OUTSPOKEN ZANU-PF PARLIAMENTARIANS WHOM THE POLITBURO 
EFFECTIVELY SIDELINED FOR CRITICIZING RULING PARTY 
POLICIES. THEY AND OTHER INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES ARE 
POPULAR IN MANICALAND, A PROVINCE KNOWN FOR ITS LONG- 
TIME SUPPORT OF INDEPENDENTS. MDC NONETHELESS EXPECTS TO 
FARE EXTREMELY WELL IN MANICALAND, PARTLY BECAUSE THOSE 
VOTES THAT THE RULING PARTY DOES RECEIVE ARE LIKELY TO 
BE SPLIT BETWEEN THE NEW "ZANU-PF INDEPENDENTS" AND 
FORMAL RULING PARTY CANDIDATES. CONSTITUENCIES IN 
MANICALAND WHERE THE OUTCOME LOOKS REASONABLY CERTAIN AT 
THIS POINT INCLUDE: 
 
-- BUHERA NORTH, WHERE MORGAN TSVANGIRAI IS PITTED 
AGAINST MANICALAND GOVERNOR KENNETH MANYONDA. ALTHOUGH 
WELL RESPECTED, MANYONDA ALMOST CERTAINLY WILL NOT BE 
ABLE TO COMPETE WITH TSVANGIRAI'S IMMENSE NATIONAL 
POPULARITY. 
 
-- MAKONI NORTH, WHERE ZANU-PF INCUMBENT DIDIMUS MUTASA, 
THE RULING PARTY'S SECRETARY FOR ADMINISTRATION, IS 
EXPECTED TO DEFEAT THE MDC'S LITTLE KNOWN V.T. ZISWA. 
 
-- CHIPINGE NORTH, WHERE ZANU-PF'S GIDDEON GOKO LIKELY 
WILL DEFEAT THE MDC'S MATHIAS MLAMBO. 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ3104 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  03460  04 OF 07  231347Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   ACQ-00   CIAE-00  DINT-00  DODE-00 
      DOTE-00  WHA-00   SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00   FAAE-00 
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      VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00 
      PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00    USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00 
      DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /007W 
                  ------------------664AD6  231347Z /38 
P 231350Z JUN 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6404 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC PRIORITY 
DEPTTREAS WASHDC PRIORITY 
USDOC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 07 HARARE 003460 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF PDAS NANCY POWELL, AF DAS WITNEY SCHNEIDMAN, 
AND AF/S - ARLENE RENDER 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
DOL FOR ILAB/ROBERT SHEPARD 
 
TREASURY FOR OASIA/RALYEA AND NATAN EPSTEIN 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  03460  04 OF 07  231347Z 
USDOC FOR DHENKE-ROGERS 
 
LONDON FOR PFLAUMER 
 
PARIS FOR WILLIAMS 
 
PASS USAID WASHDC FOR AFR/SA - NAN NEWMAN, OTI - MARC 
SCOTT, AND A/AID - RICHARD MCCALL 
 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/22/2000 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ELAB, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT: DESPITE STIFF COMPETITION, POTENTIAL FOR 
VIOLENCE IN SOME AREAS, AND EXPECTED VOTE RIGGING, MDC 
LIKELY TO WIN ABOUT 60 SEATS 
 
7. (C) MIDLANDS (17 SEATS): THE MDC IS LIKELY TO WIN 
MORE THAN HALF OF THE SEATS IN THIS PROVINCE, 
PARTICULARLY AMONG THE NDEBELE CONSTITUENCIES THAT 
COMPRISE ABOUT HALF OF ALL MIDLANDS SEATS. THE FOLLOWING 
TWO CONSTITUENCIES, HOWEVER, ARE EXPECTED TO GO TO ZANU- 
PF: 
 
-- KWEKWE: MINISTRY OF JUSTICE AND PARLIAMENTARY AFFAIRS 
EMMERSON MNANGAGWA IS FAVORED TO BEAT UNKNOWN MDC 
CANDIDATE BLESSING CHEBUNDO. THE MINISTER IS A 
NATIONALLY RECOGNIZED ZANU-PF HARD-LINER AND ONE OF 
ZIMBABWE'S MOST POWERFUL FIGURES, AND HE USED HIS 
INFLUENCE TO SECURE FOOD, INFRASTRUCTURE, AND OTHER 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  03460  04 OF 07  231347Z 
ITEMS OF PATRONAGE FOR HIS CONSTITUENTS OVER THE YEARS. 
UNDER MNANGAGWA'S WATCHFUL EYE, VIOLENT CLASHES HAVE 
OCCURRED FREQUENTLY BETWEEN RULING PARTY AND MDC 
SUPPORTERS IN KWEKWE, AND THE MINISTER IS EXPECTED TO GO 
TO ANY LENGTH TO RETAIN HIS PARLIAMENTARY SEAT. 
 
-- MKOBA: THE POPULAR ZANU-PF CANDIDATE FREDERICK SHAVA 
IS FAVORED TO BEAT MDC UNKNOWN STANLEY MAKWEMBERE. 
 
8. (C) MASVINGO (14 SEATS): THIS WILL BE A TOUGHER 
PROVINCE FOR THE MDC, WITH THE VOTES SPLIT ABOUT EVENLY 
BETWEEN THE MDC AND ZANU-PF. SEVERAL OF THE RULING 
PARTY'S MOST PROMINENT FIGURES ARE DEFENDING THEIR 
TERRITORIES IN MASVINGO, AND MANY OF THE CONSTITUENCIES 
WILL BE HOTLY CONTESTED. 
 
-- MASVINGO CENTRAL: ZANU-PF INCUMBENT DZIKIMAI 
MAVHAIRE, WHOSE OUTSPOKEN CRITICISM OF PRESIDENT MUGABE 
RESULTED IN HIS SUSPENSION FROM PARLIAMENT BETWEEN 1997 
AND 1999, IS HEAVILY FAVORED TO BEAT MDC CANDIDATE SILAS 
MANGONO. 
 
-- MASVINGO SOUTH: EDDISON ZVOGBO, A MODERATE BUT SENIOR 
ZANU-PF'ER AND MINISTER OF STATE IN THE OFFICE OF THE 
PRESIDENT, ALSO IS HEAVILY FAVORED TO BEAT MDC'ER 
ZACHARIA RIOGA. 
 
-- MASVINGO NORTH: DESPITE HIS NATIONAL PERSONA AND 
SENIOR POSITION IN THE PARTY, MINISTER OF FOREIGN 
AFFAIRS STANISLAUS MUDENGE (WHOSE POPULARITY AMONG HIS 
CONSTITUENTS HAS DECLINED SIGNIFICANTLY IN RECENT 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  03460  04 OF 07  231347Z 
YEARS), WILL HAVE A TOUGH BATTLE AGAINST MDC CANDIDATE 
JOSEPH MUTEMA. 
 
-- GUTU NORTH: VICE PRESIDENT SIMON MUZENDA FACES MDC 
LOCAL CRISPA MUSONI. ALTHOUGH THE VICE PRESIDENT'S NAME 
IS MUCH BETTER KNOWN, HE IS REGARDED BY MOST AS TOO OLD 
AND OUT OF TOUCH TO BE EFFECTIVE IN OFFICE, AND IN 
RECENT YEARS HE HAS FAILED TO BRING THE PATRONAGE TO 
GUTU NORTH THAT HIS CONSTITUENTS HAVE COME TO EXPECT. 
DURING A RECENT CAMPAIGN RALLY, MUZENDA LEVIED HARSH, 
BELITTLING REMARKS AT POPULAR FELLOW PARTY MEMBERS 
MAVHAIRE AND ZVOGBO, BOTH OF WHOM FAILED TO ATTEND THE 
VICE PRESIDENT'S RALLY BECAUSE THEY WERE BUSY 
CAMPAIGNING IN THEIR OWN CONSTITUENCIES. WHETHER THIS 
CRITICISM HAD ANY NEGATIVE EFFECT -- ON ANY OF THE THREE 
CANDIDATES -- REMAINS TO BE SEEN. THE VICE PRESIDENT 
ALSO MAY SUFFER THE CONSEQUENCES OF TALKING DOWN TO 
VOTERS BY TELLING THEM IN A RECENT CAMPAIGN SPEECH THAT 
THEY MUST SUPPORT THE ZANU-PF CANDIDATE, EVEN IF THE 
PARTY RUNS "A BABOON." 
 
9. (C) MASHONALAND EAST, WEST, AND CENTRAL (34 SEATS): 
DESPITE WIDESPREAD VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION, WE EXPECT 
THE MDC TO WIN SOME SEATS IN THESE AREAS, ALTHOUGH NOT 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ3106 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  03460  05 OF 07  231348Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   ACQ-00   CIAE-00  DINT-00  DODE-00 
      DOTE-00  WHA-00   SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00   FAAE-00 
      FBIE-00  VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   LAB-01   L-00 
      VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00 
      PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00    USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00 
      DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /007W 
                  ------------------664AE6  231348Z /38 
P 231350Z JUN 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6405 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC PRIORITY 
DEPTTREAS WASHDC PRIORITY 
USDOC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 05 OF 07 HARARE 003460 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF PDAS NANCY POWELL, AF DAS WITNEY SCHNEIDMAN, 
AND AF/S - ARLENE RENDER 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
DOL FOR ILAB/ROBERT SHEPARD 
 
TREASURY FOR OASIA/RALYEA AND NATAN EPSTEIN 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  03460  05 OF 07  231348Z 
USDOC FOR DHENKE-ROGERS 
 
LONDON FOR PFLAUMER 
 
PARIS FOR WILLIAMS 
 
PASS USAID WASHDC FOR AFR/SA - NAN NEWMAN, OTI - MARC 
SCOTT, AND A/AID - RICHARD MCCALL 
 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/22/2000 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ELAB, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT: DESPITE STIFF COMPETITION, POTENTIAL FOR 
VIOLENCE IN SOME AREAS, AND EXPECTED VOTE RIGGING, MDC 
LIKELY TO WIN ABOUT 60 SEATS 
 
THE MAJORITY. THE "MASHONALANDS" ARE ZANU-PF 
STRONGHOLDS, WHERE FARM OCCUPATIONS AND THE WAR 
VETERANS' CAMPAIGN OF VIOLENCE HAVE BEEN THE MOST 
AGGRESSIVE. NUMEROUS REPORTS HAVE SURFACED FROM THE 
REGION THAT CIO AGENTS AND MEMBERS OF MUGABE'S 
PRESIDENTIAL GUARD WERE BUSED IN TO LEAD THE WAR 
VETERANS AND OTHER HIRED THUGS IN THE "RE-EDUCATION" OF 
RURAL RESIDENTS, INCLUDING FORCED ATTENDANCE AT 
POLITICAL RALLIES, PROPERTY DESTRUCTION, BEATINGS, AND 
MURDERS. IN THE MIDST OF THESE SUBVERSIVE TACTICS, ZANU- 
PF INCUMBENTS AND SENIOR POLITICIANS, INCLUDING 
PRESIDENT MUGABE, HAVE CAMPAIGNED HERE VIGOROUSLY IN 
RECENT WEEKS. 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  03460  05 OF 07  231348Z 
10. (C) MEANWHILE, SAFETY CONCERNS AND VOCIFEROUS 
THREATS FROM THE WAR VETERANS HAVE PREVENTED THE MDC 
FROM CAMPAIGNING IN THE REGION, WITH TSVANGIRAI 
DECLARING THE MOST VIOLENT CONSTITUENCIES "NO GO" AREAS 
FOR HIS PARTY'S CANDIDATES. ALTHOUGH THE MDC ASSERTS 
THAT MASHONALAND RESIDENTS ARE KEEPING THEIR LOYALTY TO 
THE PARTY HIDDEN AND WILL VOTE THEIR CONSCIENCE ON 
ELECTION DAY, IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT THE STATE-SPONSORED 
VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL. WE EXPECT 
MANY FARM WORKERS AND RURAL RESIDENTS TO SIMPLY ABSTAIN 
FROM VOTING, WHILE OTHERS, FEARING THAT THEIR BALLOT 
WILL NOT BE SECRET, WILL VOTE ZANU-PF. ECONOMIC DECLINE 
AND DISGUST WITH THE RULING PARTY'S SCARE TACTICS 
PROBABLY WILL PROMPT VOTERS TO HAND THE MDC QUITE A FEW 
OF THE 34 SEATS IN THE REGION, BUT CERTAINLY NOT A 
MAJORITY. 
 
11. (C) FOLLOWING ARE SOME HIGH PROFILE RACES IN THE 
"MASHONALANDS": 
 
-- BINDURA, MASH. CENTRAL: THE INFAMOUS PROVINCIAL 
GOVERNOR, BORDER GEZI, RESPONSIBLE FOR A SUBSTANTIAL 
NUMBER OF SERIOUS HUMAN RIGHTS VIOLATIONS AND DUBBED 
ZANU-PF'S CAMPAIGN "MASCOT" BY THE INDEPENDENT PRESS, 
HAS CAMPAIGNED VIGOROUSLY FOR THE RULING PARTY. GEZI HAS 
PERSONALLY SPEARHEADED THE WAR VETERANS' REIGN OF TERROR 
IN THE AREA. HIS ENORMOUS PERSONA IS FAVORED TO WIN OVER 
LITTLE-KNOWN MDC CANDIDATE ELLIOT PFEBVE. 
 
-- MAZOWE EAST, MASH. CENTRAL: MINISTER OF INFORMATION, 
POSTS, AND TELECOMMUNICATIONS CHEN CHIMUNTENGWENDE IS 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  03460  05 OF 07  231348Z 
WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT FIGHT AGAINST POPULAR MDC 
CANDIDATE SHEPHERD MUSHONGA. 
 
-- GURUVE SOUTH, MASH. CENTRAL: THIS WILL BE A VERY 
CLOSE RACE BETWEEN THE POLISHED AND POPULAR DEPUTY 
MINISTER OF MINES, ENVIRONMENT, AND TOURISM, EDWARD 
CHINDORI-CHININGA, AND THE EQUALLY POPULAR DEPUTY 
SECRETARY GENERAL OF THE MDC, GIFT CHIMANIKIRE (WHO ALSO 
 
SIPDIS 
IS HEAD OF THE PTC WORKERS' UNION). BOTH WERE BORN IN 
GURUVE SOUTH AND HAVE RUN VERY SUCCESSFUL CAMPAIGNS. 
 
-- SHAMVA, MASH. CENTRAL: DEPUTY FOREIGN MINISTER 
NICHOLAS GOCHE, WHOSE POPULARITY HAS WANED IN RECENT 
YEARS, PROBABLY WILL MANAGE TO RETAIN HIS SEAT, FENDING 
OFF A DIFFICULT CHALLENGE FROM POPULAR LOCAL MDC 
CANDIDATE JOSEPH MASHINYA. 
 
-- MARONDERA EAST, MASH. EAST: MINISTER OF NATIONAL 
SECURITY SYDNEY SEKERAMAYI PROBABLY WILL WIN OVER LITTLE 
KNOWN MDC CANDIDATE DIDIMUS MUNHENZVA -- NOT BECAUSE OF 
HIS POPULARITY, BUT MORE BECAUSE OF HIS ROLE AS THE HEAD 
OF ZIMBABWE'S SINISTER CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE ORGANIZATION 
(WHOSE AGENTS HAVE BEEN INTIMIDATING VOTERS IN HIS AREA 
FOR SEVERAL MONTHS). 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ3110 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  03460  06 OF 07  231348Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   ACQ-00   CIAE-00  DINT-00  DODE-00 
      DOTE-00  WHA-00   SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00   FAAE-00 
      FBIE-00  VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   LAB-01   L-00 
      VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00 
      PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00    USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00 
      DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /007W 
                  ------------------664AF9  231348Z /38 
P 231350Z JUN 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6406 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC PRIORITY 
DEPTTREAS WASHDC PRIORITY 
USDOC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 06 OF 07 HARARE 003460 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF PDAS NANCY POWELL, AF DAS WITNEY SCHNEIDMAN, 
AND AF/S - ARLENE RENDER 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
DOL FOR ILAB/ROBERT SHEPARD 
 
TREASURY FOR OASIA/RALYEA AND NATAN EPSTEIN 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  03460  06 OF 07  231348Z 
USDOC FOR DHENKE-ROGERS 
 
LONDON FOR PFLAUMER 
 
PARIS FOR WILLIAMS 
 
PASS USAID WASHDC FOR AFR/SA - NAN NEWMAN, OTI - MARC 
SCOTT, AND A/AID - RICHARD MCCALL 
 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/22/2000 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ELAB, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT: DESPITE STIFF COMPETITION, POTENTIAL FOR 
VIOLENCE IN SOME AREAS, AND EXPECTED VOTE RIGGING, MDC 
LIKELY TO WIN ABOUT 60 SEATS 
 
12. (C) MASHONALAND EAST IN PARTICULAR PROBABLY HAS THE 
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR VIOLENCE DURING THE ELECTIONS. 
ZANU-PF CANDIDATES ARE FAVORED TO WIN HERE AS A RESULT 
OF THE WAR VETERANS' PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE TACTICS: 
 
-- MUTOKO NORTH 
-- MUTOKO SOUTH 
-- WEDZA 
-- MARONDERA WEST (NOTE: THE INDEPENDENT CANDIDATE, JOHN 
TSIMBA, WHO FORMERLY BELONGED TO ZANU-PF MAY BEAT RUFARO 
 
SIPDIS 
GWANZURA, A NON-LOCAL CANDIDATE INSERTED BY THE RULING 
PARTY POLITBURO AT THE LAST MINUTE. END NOTE.) 
-- MUDZI 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  03460  06 OF 07  231348Z 
-- MUREHWA NORTH 
-- MUREHWA SOUTH 
-- GOROMONZI 
-- CHIKOMBA, WHERE WAR VETERANS' LEADERS CHENJERAI 
"HITLER" HUNZVI FACES POPULAR MDC CANDIDATE PETER 
KAUNDA. 
 
---------------------------------- 
FACTORS WORKING IN THE MDC'S FAVOR 
---------------------------------- 
 
13. (C) VOTING FOR A PARTY, NOT AN INDIVIDUAL: THE 
OVERRIDING SENTIMENT IN THE COUNTRY IS THAT ZIMBABWEANS 
ARE VOTING FOR A PARTY MORE THAN THEY ARE CONSIDERING 
THE INDIVIDUAL QUALIFICATIONS OF EACH CANDIDATE. THE 
MDC'S SUPPORT STEMS FIRST AND FOREMOST FROM THE FACT 
THAT IT PROMISES CHANGE, IN PARTICULAR ECONOMIC REFORM, 
AND A NEW, MORE TRANSPARENT, AND MORE INCLUSIVE STYLE OF 
GOVERNANCE. IN MANY CONSTITUENCIES, THE ZANU-PF 
INCUMBENTS HAVE FAILED TO DELIVER ON THEIR PROMISES TO 
THEIR CONSTITUENTS -- INDEED, MANY HARDLY SET FOOT IN 
THE AREA OUTSIDE OF ELECTION SEASON. THE MDC ALSO HAS 
BEEN CAREFUL TO CHOOSE CANDIDATES WHO ARE FROM THE AREAS 
IN WHICH THEY'RE RUNNING AND ARE KNOWN AT LEAST TO THOSE 
CONSTITUENTS, EVEN IF THEY HAVE NO HISTORY IN POLITICS. 
AS A RESULT, EVEN LITTLE KNOWN MDC CANDIDATES STAND A 
GOOD CHANCE IN MANY CASES OF UNSEATING FAMOUS (IN SOME 
CASES INFAMOUS) ZANU-PF INCUMBENTS WHOSE POPULARITY HAS 
WANED IN RECENT YEARS. 
 
14. (C) RURAL VOTE SLIPPING AWAY FROM ZANU-PF: ONCE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  03460  06 OF 07  231348Z 
BASTIONS OF RULING PARTY SUPPORT, THE RURAL AREAS NO 
LONGER ARE SURE BETS FOR THE ZANU-PF INCUMBENTS. MANY 
COMMUNAL RESIDENTS AND FARM WORKERS, WHO COMPRISE OVER 
60 PERCENT OF ZIMBABWE'S 5.1 MILLION VOTERS, EITHER HAVE 
LIVED OR WORKED IN CITIES THEMSELVES, OR HAVE RELATIVES 
WHO WORK IN THE CITIES AND COMMUTE HOME OFTEN. AS A 
RESULT, MDC LEADERS POINT OUT THAT RURAL RESIDENTS ARE 
NO LONGER AS IGNORANT OF NATIONAL POLITICS AS THEY ONCE 
WERE, AND INCREASINGLY THEY BLAME ZANU-PF FOR THE 
DECLINE IN THEIR DISPOSABLE INCOME AND STANDARD OF 
LIVING -- PARTICULARLY NOW THAT THE GOZ CAN NO LONGER 
AFFORD TO MAINTAIN THE PATRONAGE SYSTEM THAT IT ONCE 
ROBUSTLY MAINTAINED IN RURAL AREAS. 
 
15. (C) ALREADY DISILLUSIONED WITH THE RULING PARTY, 
RURAL RESIDENTS (PARTICULARLY IN THE "MASHONALANDS") 
HAVE BEEN SUFFERING SINCE FEBRUARY FROM VIOLENT ATTACKS 
AND SEVERE PSYCHOLOGICAL INTIMIDATION WHICH THEY KNOW 
HAVE BEEN SANCTIONED BY MUGABE AND, IN MANY CASES, 
ORGANIZED BY THEIR OWN LOCAL POLITICIANS. MDC LEADERS 
TELL US THAT, IF MUGABE HAD HELD ELECTIONS IN APRIL OR 
MAY, THE MDC WOULD HAVE LOST MANY OF THE RURAL 
CONSTITUENCIES. NOW, ARGUES THE MDC, COMMUNAL RESIDENTS 
AND PARTICULARLY FARM WORKERS SEE CLEARLY WHAT THE 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ3111 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  03460  07 OF 07  231348Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   ACQ-00   CIAE-00  DINT-00  DODE-00 
      DOTE-00  WHA-00   SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00   FAAE-00 
      FBIE-00  VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   LAB-01   L-00 
      VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00 
      PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00    USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00 
      DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /007W 
                  ------------------664B01  231348Z /38 
P 231350Z JUN 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6407 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC PRIORITY 
DEPTTREAS WASHDC PRIORITY 
USDOC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 07 OF 07 HARARE 003460 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF PDAS NANCY POWELL, AF DAS WITNEY SCHNEIDMAN, 
AND AF/S - ARLENE RENDER 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
DOL FOR ILAB/ROBERT SHEPARD 
 
TREASURY FOR OASIA/RALYEA AND NATAN EPSTEIN 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  03460  07 OF 07  231348Z 
USDOC FOR DHENKE-ROGERS 
 
LONDON FOR PFLAUMER 
 
PARIS FOR WILLIAMS 
 
PASS USAID WASHDC FOR AFR/SA - NAN NEWMAN, OTI - MARC 
SCOTT, AND A/AID - RICHARD MCCALL 
 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/22/2000 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ELAB, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT: DESPITE STIFF COMPETITION, POTENTIAL FOR 
VIOLENCE IN SOME AREAS, AND EXPECTED VOTE RIGGING, MDC 
LIKELY TO WIN ABOUT 60 SEATS 
 
RULING PARTY REPRESENTS, AND THEY WILL VOTE TO REJECT 
THEIR ZANU-PF AGGRESSORS ON ELECTION WEEKEND. POST 
BELIEVES THE MDC WILL WIN, AND SURPRISINGLY SO, A 
HEALTHY NUMBER OF RURAL CONSTITUENCIES (INCLUDING SOME 
IN THE "MASHONALANDS") AS A RESULT OF THE PARTY'S 
ENERGETIC CAMPAIGNING IN THESE AREAS, AND AS A PROTEST 
VOTE AGAINST STATE-SPONSORED INTIMIDATION. HOWEVER, 
NEITHER THE MDC NOR POST BELIEVES THAT THE OPPOSITION 
WILL SWEEP THE RURAL AREAS, EITHER BECAUSE OF CONTINUED 
LOYALTY TO THE RULING PARTY, OR BECAUSE THE INTIMIDATION 
HAS WORKED. 
 
16. (C) "ZANU-PF INDEPENDENTS" SPLITTING THE VOTE: 
ANOTHER SIGNAL OF THE RULING PARTY'S WANING SUPPORT IS 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  03460  07 OF 07  231348Z 
THE RECORD NUMBER OF INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES RUNNING IN 
THIS ELECTION. OF 566 TOTAL CANDIDATES, A STUNNING 40 
PERCENT (OR 226) REPRESENT VARIOUS INDEPENDENT PARTIES 
OTHER THAN ZANU-PF AND THE MDC. IN MANY CASES, THESE 
INDEPENDENTS ACTUALLY ARE FORMER ZANU-PF'ERS WHO LOST IN 
THE PRIMARIES TO OTHER RULING PARTY CANDIDATES. THE 
ZANU-PF POLITBURO REPORTEDLY SIDELINED SOME OF ITS MORE 
OUTSPOKEN MEMBERS, APPOINTING ZANU-PF LOYALISTS TO 
REPLACE THEM IN THEIR OWN CONSTITUENCIES. THE DISPLACED 
POLITICIANS -- MANY OF WHOM STILL ENJOY WIDESPREAD 
SUPPORT IN THEIR AREAS -- THEREFORE ARE RUNNING AS 
INDEPENDENTS, AND ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE AWAY A 
SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF VOTES THAT NORMALLY WOULD BE FOR 
THE RULING PARTY. SOME POPULAR FORMER ZANU-PF'ERS NOW 
RUNNING AS INDEPENDENTS INCLUDE CHESTER MHENDE IN HARARE 
NORTH, MOSES MVENGE IN MUTARE CENTRAL, VESTER SITHOLE IN 
CHIPINGE NORTH (MANICALAND), LAZARUS NZARAYEBANI IN 
MUTARE SOUTH, SHEPHERD MUKWEKWEZEKE IN MUTARE WEST, AND 
JOHN TSIMBA IN MARONDERA WEST. WHETHER THE PRESENCE OF 
THESE "ZANU-PF INDEPENDENTS" WILL HELP THE MDC REMAINS 
TO BE SEEN. 
 
--------------------------------- 
ELECTION RIGGING: THE BIG UNKNOWN 
--------------------------------- 
 
17. (C) IF THERE IS A LIMITED AMOUNT OF VOTE RIGGING, WE 
EXPECT THE MDC TO GARNER ABOUT 60 SEATS -- MORE THAN THE 
ONE-THIRD OF THE LEGISLATURE NECESSARY TO BLOCK 
CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS AND APPROPRIATIONS BILLS. THE 
RULING PARTY HAS DEMONSTRATED THE DRASTIC LENGTHS TO 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  03460  07 OF 07  231348Z 
WHICH IT IS WILLING TO GO TO HANG ON TO POWER. THE 
PRIMARY DETERRENTS TO ELECTION RIGGING WILL BE THE 
DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL MONITORS, AS WELL AS THE 
CANDIDATES' POLLING AGENTS, WHOM ELECTION OFFICIALS ARE 
SUPPOSED TO ALLOW TO REMAIN WITH THE BALLOT BOXES FROM 
THE OPENING OF THE POLLS TO THE CONCLUSION OF THE COUNT. 
ALTHOUGH DIPLOMATS WERE EVENTUALLY ACCREDITED, THE 
ELECTION DIRECTORATE LIMITED THE NUMBER OF INTERNATIONAL 
OBSERVERS IT WOULD ACCREDIT (INCLUDING DENYING NDI AND 
IRI OBSERVER STATUS). IN THE END, WE EXPECT TO SEE A 
TOTAL OF ABOUT 300 INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS ACTUALLY ON 
THE GROUND. MEANWHILE, THE NUMBER OF DOMESTIC MONITORS 
IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 16,000, DOWN FROM THE 20,0000 
ORIGINALLY PLANNED. THESE ACCREDITATION PROBLEMS 
CERTAINLY ARE NO ACCIDENT. WITH THE NUMBER OF WATCHFUL 
EYES ON THE BALLOT BOXES GREATLY REDUCED, IT REMAINS TO 
BE SEEN WHETHER THE RULING PARTY WILL BE ABLE TO TAMPER 
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE ELECTION RESULTS. 
 
MCDONALD 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
>