US embassy cable - 03HARARE2141

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 002141 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/FO AND AF/S; NSC FOR AFRICA SR. ADVISER FRAZER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/28/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ZI, SF 
SUBJECT: SOUTH AFRICAN TAKE ON DIALOGUE 
 
REF: HARARE 2123 
 
Classified By: Joseph G. Sullivan for Reasons 1.5B/D 
 
1. (C) Summary: South African High Commissioner Jeremiah Ndou 
told the Ambassador Oct 27 that dialogue/negotiations between 
ZANU/PF and the MDC had progressed well on both 
constitutional as well as transitional arrangements.  He said 
that there had been some recent backsliding by ZANU-PF, 
however, and that President Mbeki would likely call Mugabe to 
press for completing the dialogue.  Ndou said he expected an 
eventual agreement to settle for advancing the presidential 
election to 2005, coincident with parliamentary elections; 
leaving Mugabe as president with reduced powers; and 
installing a transitional authority with MDC presence to 
oversee electoral law revisions and other changes.  Ndou, 
however, acknowledged that the lack of a clear succession 
process within ZANU-PF was delaying progress.  To Ndou's 
question, the Ambassador said that we were pleased that 
President Mbeki had taken responsibility for finding a speedy 
resolution to the crisis in Zimbabwe.  End Summary 
 
2. (SBU) HC Ndou had to change the venue of the meeting 
because about four thousand Zimbabwean visa seekers were 
constantly present outside the SAG High Commission offices. 
    He noted the growing impact of Zimbabweans in South 
Africa which made resolution of Zimbabwe's crisis more urgent. 
 
3.(C) Ndou said that Mugabe had recently told UN SYG Annan 
that he was ready to leave office soon.  Ndou said that 
considerable progress had been made in talks between ZANU-PF 
and MDC with virtual agreement on a new constitution to be 
adopted either by parliamentary vote or a referendum. He also 
said, as had the MDC(reftel) that the principal difference 
now was over when new presidential elections should be held. 
But unlike the MDC, Ndou claimed there was virtual agreement 
on the shape of a transitional authority to govern Zimbabwe 
until new elections.  Ndou said that presidential powers 
would be sharply reduced under a new constitution and a 
transitional authority would be established, similar to that 
which prevailed in South Africa in the period before majority 
rule elections.  Ndou said that the MDC would have 
representation in all important ministries in the period 
leading up to new elections.  Ndou did not call this a 
national unity government, but instead the necessary 
opposition presence in a transitional authority to assure 
that election rule reform and other changes were carried out 
properly. He thought the most likely agreed date for new 
presidential elections was 2005, since it would take at least 
nine months and maybe more to organize a free election. 
 
4. (C) Ndou said that the progress made so far toward 
agreement was now threatened by recent signs of Mugabe 
backing away from what had been agreed, apparently because of 
internal ZANU-PF differences over the succession.  Ndou 
called Minister John Nkomo a positive influence for dialogue, 
but pointed to Jonathan Moyo and others as seeking to 
undermine any agreement reached, since they were opponents of 
change.  Ndou lamented that ZANU-PF was so top-driven that no 
change in party leadership would occur without clear 
direction from Mugabe.  He said that President Mbeki would 
likely have to call Mugabe to press the process forward.  He 
did not think Mbeki would travel to Zimbabwe at this time, 
however. 
 
5.(C) Ndou also lamented GOZ actions to close the "Daily 
News" and keep it closed, notwithstanding the administrative 
court ruling in its favor.  Ndou had hoped that the 
Government might take advantage of the court ruling to back 
away from a confrontation which was costing it 
internationally.  Ndou said that instead Jonathan Moyo had 
been able to enlist the police and the President in his 
efforts to keep the "Daily News" shut regardless of court 
rulings.  We have heard that Mugabe had promised South 
African Vice President Zuma to "let the law take its course" 
with respect to the "Daily News."  Comment:  Apparently, that 
promise only applies to cases where the court rules in the 
Government's favor. End Comment. 
 
6. (C)  Ndou asked the Ambassador about the US position.  The 
Ambassador said that we were pleased that President Mbeki had 
committed to resolving the Zimbabwean crisis on an urgent 
basis and hoped that this would happen quickly before more 
damage was done to the country and the region. The Ambassador 
also said that we would be wary of any arrangement which kept 
Mugabe in the presidency and that significant financial 
assistance and a new agreement with the IMF and the World 
Bank would be unlikely until there was an elected government. 
 
7. (C) Comment: We are not sure whether the MDC or South 
African version of the extent of agreement between the 
parties on transitional arrangements is more correct.  Each 
has reason to overstate its case.  It remains to be seen 
whether Mugabe and ZANU-PF have been at all sincere or are 
merely playing for time.  It is Mbeki who is in the best 
position to call their cards. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
SULLIVAN