US embassy cable - 03GUATEMALA2728

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GUATEMALA 002728 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, PHUM, GT 
SUBJECT: ELECTION SNAPSHOT #2: SOUTH COAST HOT SPOTS 
 
 
1.  Summary:  Election officials in Suchitepequez and 
Esquintla provinces generally anticipate a transparent 
process, with minimal vote fraud.  Election officials, OAS 
observers, and men and women encountered in the street all 
anticipate high voter turnout.  Based on a tiny, unscientific 
sample, Berger, Colom and Rios Montt, in that order, are the 
front-runners at the presidential level; mayoral preferences 
vary more widely by municipality.  Election officials and 
international observers are concerned about the potential for 
isolated electoral conflict or violence in the municipalities 
of Santa Lucia and Chicacao, two areas that have recently 
experienced politically-motivated violence.  Other areas of 
concern to OAS observers are towns with incumbent FRG mayors 
seeking re-election and rumors that the FRG has infiltrated 
vote-counting centers (which TSE officials doubted).  Another 
unpredictable factor in the electoral brew is the strong 
protest movement among disgruntled former paramilitaries 
(ex-PAC) who await compensation from the government.  End 
Summary. 
 
Background 
---------- 
 
2.  On October 22 PolOff and ConOff visited the hot, densely 
populated towns of Mazatenango (30,000 voters in 1999, 51% 
participation) and San Antonio (16,000 voters in '99), 
Suchitepequez province; and Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa (37,000 
voters, 33% participation) and Siquinala (7,300 voters, 65% 
participation), Esquintla province.  EmbOffs met with 
election officials in Mazatenango and Santa Lucia, and OAS 
election observation mission officials in San Antonio.  All 
these towns are located on the steamy southwestern coastal 
plain dominated by sugar cane and rubber plantations, and 
sugar mills.  Although the FRG won in all these towns in 
1999, Suchitepequez is a hotbed for anti-government protest 
by former civil self-defense patrollers; and Santa Lucia 
experienced anti-FRG electoral violence in 1999 when several 
polling stations were attacked and the tabulated poll results 
were burned.  We also discussed electoral preferences with 
random citizens encountered in the town centers of 
Mazatenango and Siquinala. 
 
Electoral Officials Prepared 
---------------------------- 
 
3.  TSE officials in Mazatenango and Santa Lucia reported few 
concerns about electoral preparations.  They enjoy close 
coordination with local political organizers and parties, 
police authorities and international observers to help insure 
a smooth and fair electoral process.  They reported no major 
complaints received (some minor complaints about tearing down 
rival campaign posters) and are confident the citizenry will 
turn out in larger numbers.  TSE officials in Santa Lucia 
have concentrated all voting booths along one city block, 
cordoned off by a reinforced police contingent, to prevent 
attacks on dispersed voting centers from recurring.  This 
will permit better observation in the voting area, which will 
be sealed at the close of the polls.  Nevertheless, TSE 
officials there are alert for possible attacks after the 
polls close. 
 
4.  On another issue of recent concern at the national level, 
TSE officials in Mazatenango discounted concerns in the 
 
SIPDIS 
capital about the availability of transportation to all 
parties on election day.  They report wide availability of 
public and private bus lines as well as private van and truck 
operators to transport voters on election day. 
 
OAS Observers Concerned about the Vote Count 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
5.  TSE and OAS observers generally express confidence that 
the election will proceed smoothly on election day.  However, 
OAS observers in the region expressed concern about the 
potential for electoral impropriety in towns in which FRG 
mayors are seeking re-election (17 of 20 municipalities in 
Suchitepequez).  They also shared rumors that FRG has 
infiltrated TSE election tabulation sites with its 
supporters.  TSE officials discounted this possibility, 
citing redundant systems for vote tabulation at the 
municipal, national and regional level.  The TSE officials we 
met were more concerned with monitoring and sanctioning cash 
payments or other voter incentives offered on voting day. 
All the people we met on the street planned to vote; few 
expressed concern about electoral fraud. 
 
Potential for Violence:  Ex-PACS and Tight Races 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
6.  TSE and OAS officials were most concerned about the 
potential for electoral conflict and violence in the isolated 
municipalities of Santa Lucia and Chicacao, which have both 
experienced political violence.  According to the local TSE 
representative, Santa Lucia is number three on the Ministry 
of Government's national list of potential problem areas on 
election day.  The TSE expects a larger police presence as a 
result, but have not yet been informed of actual police 
numbers.  He blamed recent political violence, including the 
burning of local National Civil Police headquarters, on the 
volatile mix of residents in Santa Lucia, which has 
experienced high in-migration of poor Guatemalans in search 
of jobs. 
 
7.  In nearby Chicacao municipality, 2,000 disgruntled ex-PAC 
burned down the municipal building on May 5 to protest 
non-payment of expected compensation.  In other nearby towns 
on the same and the following day, ex-PAC sequestered a mayor 
for 16 hours and the governor for 6 hours, for the same 
reason.  During their visit to Mazatenango, EmbOffs observed 
a seething crowd of angry, sun-bitten campesinos which filled 
the claustrophobic central square.  The crowd of 150-200 
ex-PAC was being harangued by a speaker accusing the 
government of "trickery" and demanding payment for their 
"national service" as paramilitaries during the internal 
conflict.  The protesters, a few armed with machetes, later 
seized control of a local radio station for several hours. 
Press reports accused a local government official of making 
death threats to journalists for "anti-FRG" coverage.  TSE 
and OAS contacts discounted the notion that compensated 
ex-PACs will vote solidly for any one party, saying the 
motivation for their protests are pure self-interest.  Other 
parties have promised to respect the current government's 
commitment to pay the ex-PAC in two further tranches.  Our 
TSE and OAS contacts claimed that members of the Democratic 
 
SIPDIS 
Social Participation Party of presidential candidate Miguel 
Angel Lee are encouraging further protest by local ex-PAC in 
Chicacao and Mazatenango. 
 
Voter Preferences Vary Locally:  Man in the Street 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
8.  Electoral official and observer predictions and our 
discussions with people in and around the central squares of 
Mazatenango, San Antonio and Siquinala revealed great 
variation between municipalities.  In Mazatenango and San 
Antonio, none of the people we met on the street said they 
would vote for the FRG.  In Mazatenango, some cited as their 
reason the corruption of the current FRG mayor, who was 
suspended for five months while under investigation.  In 
Siquinala, however, several people we met support the FRG at 
the local level.  Two women in indigenous clothing (rare in 
this region, but Siquinala is home to a community of returned 
Guatemalan refugees from Mexico) said they would vote for the 
current FRG mayor and for Oscar Berger for President.  Two 
men told us they supported the FRG, and said the Unionista 
and PAN candidates for mayor were also contenders.  In Santa 
Lucia, TSE officials told us the mayoral race is between the 
FRG and URNG. 
 
9.  At the presidential level, Berger (6) and Alvaro Colom 
(5) of the UNE were the most popular presidential candidates 
in both towns, followed by Rios Montt (2).  One man refused 
to divulge his preferences, and another turned out to be a 
Salvadoran attempting to migrate illegally to the U.S.  The 
TSE official in Mazatenango put the UNE in front, followed by 
 
SIPDIS 
the FRG and GANA.  In Santa Lucia, the TSE predicted a Berger 
win, with Rios Montt in second place over Colom.  At the 
national level, no one we met expressed a preference for the 
PAN candidate, despite presidential candidate Lopez Rodas' 
demagogic emphasis on citizen security.  All the major 
candidates had recently visited the region and most had 
turned out good crowds of curiosity-seekers.  OAS observers 
predicted the region would favor, in descending order, the 
GANA, UNE and FRG. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
10.  This visit reinforces the notion of a divide between 
local and national politics.  Electoral officials here seem 
confident about pre-electoral preparations, convinced that 
election violence is likely to be isolated at the municipal 
level.  Our interviews with men and women on the street also 
revealed a separation in voter intentions, with some voters 
planning to vote for one party for mayor and a different one 
for president.  This situation is linked to the performance 
of local FRG mayors.  Interestingly, even in towns with 
popular FRG mayors, Rios Montt may not benefit from a 
party-line vote.  Also notable was the fact that, apart from 
some voters' concerns with municipal corruption (in 
Mazatenango) and differing opinions about public works, very 
few of the voters we spoke with cited any national issues 
motivating their presidential candidate preferences.  All 
agreed that jobs and security are important national issues, 
but few cited these issues as reasons for their presidential 
preferences. 
HAMILTON