US embassy cable - 03ANKARA6695

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 006695 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/24/2008 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, TU 
SUBJECT: EU REPORT ON TURKEY WILL PRAISE REFORMS, CRITICIZE 
IMPLEMENTATION 
 
 
REF: A. ANKARA 5566 
     B. ANKARA 6570 AND PREVIOUS 
 
 
(U) Classified by Polcouns John Kunstadter; reasons 1.5 b and 
d. 
 
 
1. (SBU) Summary: The upcoming EU report on Turkey will 
praise GOT human rights reforms while criticizing the slow 
pace of implementation.  Ankara-based contacts from EU states 
agree that Turkey's candidacy is progressing, but could be 
derailed by a failure to reach a Cyprus settlement.  End 
Summary. 
 
 
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EU Report Will Mix Praise, Criticism 
------------------------------------ 
 
 
2. (C) The EU Commission on November 5 will release its 
Regular Report on Turkey, illustrating where Turkey stands in 
its progress toward EU accession.  An Ankara-based EU 
official, who saw an early draft of the report in Brussels, 
told us the EU will offer strong praise for the GOT's 
"impressive" human rights-related legislative reforms, but 
will also note that implementation of the reforms has been 
slow (reftel A).  She said the report will probably not make 
a specific recommendation concerning whether Turkey is 
prepared to begin accession talks, since the EU has postponed 
until the December 2004 Summit a decision on whether to set a 
date for talks with Turkey.  But observers will carefully 
scrutinize the "General Evaluation" section of the report for 
clues to the Commission's thinking.  Our contact said 
Commission members are still haggling over the tone of this 
section.  Everyone knows the report will mix praise with 
criticism; whether it pleases Turkey supporters or opponents 
will depend on precisely how it strikes this balance. 
 
 
3. (SBU) We raised the upcoming report and Turkey's EU 
candidacy at a representational event with French, Danish, 
Dutch, British, and German diplomats.  The diplomats differed 
on the GOT's human rights reforms -- the French and Germans 
were skeptical, the others more supportive -- but all agreed 
the report, despite criticisms, will reflect Turkey's 
progress toward EU membership.  The report will highlight a 
number of specific problem areas.  It will criticize, for 
example, the State's conduct of the retrial of Leyla Zana and 
three other Kurdish former MPs (reftel B), which is widely 
viewed as an example of pro-prosecution bias in the Turkish 
judicial system.  But our contacts said none of these 
examples reflect problems that could derail Turkey's 
candidacy. 
 
 
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Cyprus: The "Way Out" for Turkey Skeptics 
----------------------------------------- 
 
 
4. (SBU) There is, however, one potential showstopper -- 
Cyprus.  The diplomats agreed that failure to reach a Cyprus 
settlement before the December 2004 Summit could doom 
Turkey's chances to be offered a date for accession talks. 
Our French contact initially opined that Turkey has a "100 
percent chance" of being offered a date, but changed her mind 
and threw up her hands when someone mentioned Cyprus.  Our 
German contact, a noted Turkey skeptic, half jokingly 
referred to Cyprus as "the only way out" for the EU. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
EDELMAN