US embassy cable - 03GUATEMALA2707

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GUATEMALA 002707 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, PINR, GT 
SUBJECT: ELECTIONS SNAPSHOT 1: ALL QUIET ON THE EASTERN 
FRONT 
 
1. (SBU)  Summary: EmbOffs visited the eastern provinces of 
Zacapa and Chiquimula to conduct man-on-the-street interviews 
and to discuss the ongoing election campaign with resident 
international election observers.  Widespread disillusionment 
with the Portillo Administration was reflected in our 
unscientific polls and confirmed by the MINUGUA and OAS reps. 
 Colom and Berger tied in the voter-preference poll, with 
Rios Montt a distant third.  Concerns about fraud and 
violence on election day were widespread but ill-defined, and 
centered on mayoral-level races.  International observers are 
well-coordinated and have targeted their resources at areas 
where tensions are highest.  End Summary. 
 
2. (U) Zacapa and Chiquimula are typical of Guatemala's 
rural, largely ladino eastern provinces.  Together the two 
provinces constitute just under 5 percent of Guatemala's 
population, and both departments voted overwhelmingly for the 
FRG in the 1995 and 1999 elections.  During our visit, 
EmbOffs conducted random interviews with a broad range of 
voters.  About one third of the interviews were conducted 
outside Zacapa's hospital and included voters from several 
outlying communities.  The rest were conducted in 
Chiquimula's central plaza. 
 
3. (SBU) Zacapa is President Portillo's hometown and has been 
the beneficiary of several large-scale public works projects, 
such as the renovation of the central square and the sports 
stadium.  Residents were not impressed, however, and most 
expressed bitter disappointment with the Portillo 
Administration.  Alberto Brunori, MINUGUA representative, who 
has resided in Zacapa since 2000, believes this 
disillusionment will translate into low voter turnout on 
election day.  Rosario Ramos of the OAS observation mission 
reported long lines all over the region as people updated 
their voter registration.  Our interviews reconciled this 
apparent contradiction by reflecting widespread apathy and 
cynicism toward politics and politicians at the national 
level, but residents became animated and opinionated when our 
questions touched on local-level politics. 
 
4. (U) Chiquimula is widely referred to as the personal 
fiefdom of four-time FRG congressman Baudillo Hichos, whose 
repeat victory in the upcoming elections appears guaranteed. 
Both Brunori of MINUGUA and Gerber Mendez, resident 
representative for the Human Rights Ombudsman's office (PDH) 
in Chiquimula, point to an atmosphere of tension in 
Chiquimula, but neither expects acts of violence or fraud on 
election day if only because Hichos and his people seem to 
have the situation completely under control.  All bets are 
off, however, if early results indicate that the Mayor's 
office or the new Congressional seat is not going to the FRG. 
 Gerber said that the number and types of formal complaints 
his office receives have not been affected by the run-up to 
the election.  Our interviews in Chiquimula did not pick up 
an atmosphere of intimidation, although we got more responses 
in favor of Rios Montt than in Zacapa. 
 
5. (SBU) Rios Montt performed poorly in our unofficial poll, 
placing a distant third with less than 8 percent.  We suspect 
some of our subjects who claimed to be undecided or insisted 
that their vote was secret are in reality going to vote for 
Rios Montt.  These cases still amounted to less than 20 
percent of responses.  Surprisingly, Alvarado Colom scored as 
high as Oscar Berger in our poll, each with 40 percent 
support.  Colom was considered by respondents to be the least 
corrupt and most likely to help the poor, whereas Berger was 
considered more likely to improve the economy and impose 
security.  Respondents were evenly split on whether economic 
or security issues should be the priority of the next 
government, with most people seeing these issues as 
inextricably linked at the local level.  Respondents focused 
almost entirely on local issues, and did not seem concerned 
about national political issues. Nearly all respondents 
(except for those voting for Rios Montt) believed there would 
be fraud at the polls.  Several respondents said that a Rios 
Montt victory would constitute proof of fraud, but no one 
explained how electoral safeguards could be defeated and no 
one thought the results of the elections would ultimately be 
discredited by fraud. 
 
6. (SBU) The OAS and EU observation missions said they have 
closely coordinated their election day observation plans, and 
the EU observers told us they have received excellent 
cooperation from the local political parties to date.  We 
also noted a high degree of communication and coordination 
among MINUGUA, Mirador Electoral, and the PDH.  Seventy-four 
of the 261 voting precincts in Chiquimula province will be in 
the city of Chiquimula itself.  Given the FRG's strength and 
stakes in the city, the Mirador will concentrate 17 of it 58 
observers there, backed up by 31 from the PDH.  In 
Esquipulas, where violence has historically been more of a 
problem than fraud, the Mirador will send 6 observers, and 
the PDH is committing 25 so that there will be complete 
coverage of the 30 voting tables in Esquipulas.  A similar 
pattern applies to Zacapa where 47 domestic observers (12 
from the Mirador and 35 from PDH) will provide nearly 
complete coverage to the 51 voting tables in the city.  The 
rest of the precincts in these two provinces (261 total for 
Chiquimula, and 183 total for Zacapa) will have approximately 
50 percent coverage. 
 
7. (SBU) Comment:  Man-on-the-street interviews and reports 
from international observers suggest that the FRG is 
significantly behind in its own stronghold, in large part 
because of disillusionment with the current government. 
Localized disturbances are expected in the eastern provinces 
on election night, where historically the supporters of 
losing mayoral candidates often seek redress with bravado, 
sometimes leading to violence.  In fact, when MINUGUA 
recently suggested that the GANA candidate for Mayor in the 
town of Gualan file a legal complaint in the wake of an 
attempt on his life, he retorted "that's not the way we do 
things here."  International observers have established a 
high profile and are working well together.  Potential 
flashpoints appear to have been identified and are few enough 
in number to be well monitored. 
HAMILTON