US embassy cable - 03ANKARA6613

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 006613 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/22/2013 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, TU 
SUBJECT: TURKEY: BAYKAL SET TO BE RE-ELECTED OPPOSITION CHP 
CHAIRMAN 
 
 
REF: ANKARA 5001 
 
 
(U) Classified by Political Counselor John Kunstadter. 
Reason: 1.5 (b,d). 
 
 
1. (C) Summary: With party delegates firmly in his grasp, CHP 
leader Baykal is likely to be re-elected chairman at an Oct. 
23-24 general convention.  Although our contacts expect a 
contentious atmosphere, they do not expect major changes to 
the CHP administration.  Former state minister Kemal Dervis 
has been more vocal about having a greater say in party 
matters, but our contacts suggest he has little support 
within the party itself.  While he may get a seat on the 
central committee, Dervis is not likely to be given much room 
for maneuver.  End summary. 
 
 
2. (C) Main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) will 
hold its general convention Oct. 23-24, two days earlier than 
originally planned.  Our CHP contacts tell us that party 
chairman Deniz Baykal moved the dates of the convention so 
that he will be able to attend a socialist parties' 
conference in Brazil, where Baykal will be a presenter. 
 
 
----------------- 
Sound and Fury... 
----------------- 
 
 
3. (C) CHP M.P.s across the board acknowledge that the 
convention will be contentious because of the party's 
flagging polling numbers, which have consistently shown 
public support for the party at around 12 percent.  CHP Vice 
Chairman Sinan Yerlikaya -- a close Baykal advisor -- told us 
Oct. 17 that he expects a lively open debate on the direction 
of the party.  In a meeting with us Oct. 21, senior CHP M.P. 
Fuat Cay echoed Yerlikaya, admitting that there are many 
dissatisfied long-time party officials from the local level, 
who want Baykal to take an even harder public line against 
the ruling AK Party.  Cay said any party member will be 
allowed to speak his mind during the convention's first day. 
"This is why we are more democratic than other parties," he 
averred with a straight face. 
 
 
4. (C) Much of the expected cacophony centers around 
rivalries among Baykal cronies and between the party 
leadership and the grassroots.  Cay said there is growing 
opposition to a few senior figures in the party -- Vice 
Chairman Mehmet Sevigen and M.P. Bulent Tanla among them -- 
who are perceived as being close to Baykal but not to the 
party grassroots.  Moreover, CHP member and former State 
Minister Erol Cevikce -- who was once very close to Baykal -- 
told us Oct. 20 that CHP Secretary General Onder Sav is 
leading a campaign to oust Esref Erdem, who is considered by 
many CHP insiders as Baykal's most trusted advisor, from his 
position as party Vice Chairman.  Cevikce claimed Sav is 
trying to set himself up as a potential successor to Baykal 
should the party do poorly in the local elections, now 
scheduled for March 28, 2004. 
 
 
5. (C) A bigger concern for the CHP leadership, according to 
our contacts, is the potential flare-up over how the party 
will elect its assembly, which chooses the members of the 
central committee that, in turn, sets party policy.  Cay 
explained that the delegates will vote on whether to use a 
"block list" of assembly candidates or a "blanket list." 
Baykal favors a block list, because it allows him to choose 
exactly whom he wants in the party assembly.  In a block 
list, delegates have no choice but to except the party 
leadership's recommendations.  Perhaps as a first step in 
billing himself as Baykal's successor, Sav openly opposes the 
block list and favors the blanket list, which is a longer 
list of assembly candidates, giving delegates the flexibility 
to pick and choose their favorites.  Cay, himself a Baykal 
lackey, admitted that if the delegates oppose the block list, 
the current CHP central committee will issue a "key" to the 
blanket list, indicating which candidates the party 
leadership prefers -- in effect undermining the more 
democratic approach of the blanket list. 
 
 
---------------------- 
...Signifying Nothing? 
---------------------- 
 
 
6. (C) Despite the potential for a divisive convention, few 
of our CHP contacts expect major changes to the senior party 
leadership and none foresee -- at least for now -- a real 
challenge to Baykal.  According to our contacts, the three 
other candidates for chairman -- Erol Tuncer, Cemal Ozdemir, 
and Bedri Baykam -- lack any base of support within the 
party.  Our contacts point out that even a strong, 
charismatic candidate would have a difficult time challenging 
Baykal, because he controls most of the delegates.  CHP M.P. 
Necdet Budak -- a frequent critic of Baykal in meetings with 
us -- explained to us Oct. 8 that the CHP leader had ensured 
a victory by reaching down to the sub-provincial level to 
install his supporters.  Sub-provincial officials elect 
provincial delegates, who in turn choose delegates to the 
general convention.  Budak said he expects some changes to 
the party administration but nothing significant.  "But you 
never know," he added without much conviction. 
 
 
-------------------------- 
Does Dervis Have a Chance? 
-------------------------- 
 
 
7. (C) Former State Minister and CHP M.P. Kemal Dervis has 
been making more noise about having a larger role in 
determining the direction of the party.  In a private meeting 
with us Oct. 21, Dervis explained that he hopes to secure a 
spot on the CHP central committee and bring with him an 
unspecified number of like-minded M.P.s.  (note: Dervis has 
publicly and privately called for the transformation of CHP 
into a more European-style social democratic party (reftel). 
end note).  Dervis told us that he has no plans to challenge 
Baykal directly for the leadership of the party, claiming he 
has too many personal constraints.  He reiterated his recent 
comments in the press that he disagrees with Baykal on a host 
of issues but backed away from saying he will leave the party 
if he does not get what he wants at the convention.  He 
denied persistent rumors that he is considering joining AK if 
Baykal does not allow him a more high-profile role but 
admitted, when pressed, that he does not know what he will do 
in that event. 
 
 
8. (C) Most of our contacts in the party are dismissive of 
Dervis' chances at the convention.  They admit that there is 
a public expectation that Dervis will become more influential 
-- an expectation that could land Dervis a spot on the 
central committee -- but say he has little support within the 
party itself.  In fact, according to Cevikce, many blame 
Dervis for the party's perceived electoral failure last 
November.  Cevikce said that Onur Oymen -- who is close to 
Baykal and who has spewed the most anti-American rhetoric of 
any of the CHP M.P.s -- has more support within the party 
than Dervis.  Yerlikaya added that he hopes Dervis leaves the 
party after the convention.  He is divisive, Yerlikaya said, 
noting that Dervis joined CHP, not the other way around. 
 
 
--------------------- 
Comment: What's Next? 
--------------------- 
 
 
9. (C) Baykal is set to hang on to the CHP chairmanship. 
Although a few new faces may enter the party's central 
committee, any significant change to CHP policies is unlikely 
-- even if Dervis does win a seat on the committee.  CHP 
insiders tell us Baykal -- firmly in control of the party 
machine -- does not yet feel enough pressure to alter CHP's 
course.  Indeed, most of the edginess surrounding the 
upcoming convention springs more from personal rivalry than 
any dissatisfaction with the party's policies.  However, our 
contacts tell us that the true test for Baykal and CHP will 
be local elections in March.  Most speculate that if CHP does 
poorly -- which they define as receiving less than the 19 
percent of the vote the party received last November -- then 
the exasperated grassroots are likely to push for an 
extraordinary party congress to elect a new chairman. 
Cevikce argued that Baykal is already maneuvering to head off 
such an outcome.  Baykal, he said, is bringing delegates to 
the convention who are likely to win spots as mayors or on 
municipal councils after the March local elections.  In this 
way, Baykal is attempting to create a cadre of delegates who 
are indebted to him and would, therefore, protect him should 
the party fall further. 
EDELMAN