US embassy cable - 03SANTODOMINGO5875

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SANTO DOMINGO 005875 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/CAR 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/21/2013 
TAGS: DR, PGOV 
SUBJECT: DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: PRD VOTES "NO" TO RE-ELECTION 
 
REF: SANTO DOMINGO 5759 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Hans Hertell for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary:  PRD members, in a consultative "plebiscite" 
October 19, voted overwhelmingly against President Mejia's 
bid for re-election next May.  Turnout was respectable, but 
some voting procedures were questionable and the results were 
skewed by a boycott of Mejia supporters.  Both Mejia and his 
rivals for the PRD presidential nomination now appear willing 
to negotiate to unify the party and pick a candidate. 
Mejia's campaign chief told the Ambassador October 20 that 
the PRD can recover from its internal fight and convince 
voters to retain Mejia rather than bring back his main 
adversary, former president Leonel Fernandez (PLD).  However, 
the official acknowledged that national economic problems 
will hurt Mejia's chances.  End summary. 
 
Plebiscite Results 
- - - - - - - - - - 
 
2. (U) The ruling Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD) held a 
"plebiscite" of its nationwide membership as planned October 
19 (reftel).  According to nearly complete results announced 
October 20, from 3079 of 3800 polling sites, 318,817 voters 
(91 percent)of a total of 349,207 voted "no" to the question 
of whether the PRD should "change its anti-reelectionist 
position to permit the re-election of President Hipolito 
Mejia," versus 23,448 (7 percent) who voted "yes" and a 
smaller number blank or nullified votes.  The Central 
Electoral Board (JCE) had rejected the request by President 
Mejia's PPH faction to stop the referendum, noting that it 
would be "consultative" and not binding.  Journalists 
observed a low turnout at many polling sites and lax 
procedures such as voting by persons not listed on the PRD 
rolls and lack of privacy for casting ballots. 
 
Public Reactions 
- - - - - - - - - 
 
3.(U) Mejia and other top officials publicly downplayed the 
vote as "a joke" and "a failure."  PRD president Hatuey De 
Camps and other pre-candidates for the party's nomination who 
backed the plebiscite characterized it as a reflection of the 
majority will, which Mejia should take seriously.  De Camps 
told the press that he would soon convene the PRD's National 
Executive Committee, which in turn could convoke a national 
convention to nominate the candidate.  However, De Camps 
dodged a question about whether Mejia would be allowed to 
register as a pre-candidate in the convention. 
 
Readout from Mejia's Camp 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
4. (C) State Secretary of Agriculture (and Mejia's campaign 
coordinator) Eligio Jaquez told the Ambassador October 20 
that the plebiscite was history and the action would soon 
move to a national convention.  Jaquez said that Mejia would 
begin negotiations October 21 with Tourism Minister Rafael 
"Fello" Subervi and Vice President Milagros Ortiz-Bosch -- 
both rivals for the PRD presidential nomination -- to unify 
the party and make possible a convention that would include 
Mejia and his supporters.  Jaquez noted PPH polls of PRD 
members indicating support for Mejia at 50 percent, Subervi 
at 17 percent, and Ortiz-Bosch around 12-13 percent. 
 
5. (C) Regardless of the PRD's internal splits, Jaquez 
expressed "absolute confidence" that the party's candidate, 
once nominated, could beat the main adversary in the May 
election, former president (1996-2000) Leonel Fernandez 
(Dominican Liberation Party - PLD).  Jaquez cited a poll 
showing greater support for the PRD than the PLD in the 
Dominican electorate.  He also claimed that leading bankers 
oppose Fernandez's election bid, out of fear that he might 
retaliate against them for revealing bank irregularities that 
triggered the BANINTER scandal earlier this year.  He 
asserted that the PRD's nationwide organization will be able 
to persuade the voters that the Mejia administration has done 
more for them, all over the country, than Fernandez did. 
However, Jaquez acknowledged that the national economic 
downturn and financial crisis could seriously hamper Mejia's 
campaign. 
 
Comment 
- - - - 
6. (C) Given the disarray among Mejia's challengers for the 
PRD nomination (septel), it seems probable that he will 
negotiate successfully with his rivals and prevail in the PRD 
nominating convention.  The plebiscite had a respectable 
turnout for a consultative vote, but polling procedures left 
much to be desired and the results were skewed by the boycott 
of PRD members who supported Mejia and would have voted 
"yes."  The wrangling PRD leaders now show signs of putting 
the disputed plebiscite behind them and negotiating a deal 
that would then be confirmed by the National Executive 
Committee and a nominating convention. 
 
7. (C) The PRD will need to pull together all of its forces 
to have a fighting chance in the the May election.  Many 
Dominicans recall Leonel Fernandez's term in office as a time 
of prosperity and blame Mejia for the current economic 
problems.  Fernandez has potential vulnerabilities, but the 
divided PRD has not yet begun to attack them. 
HERTELL