US embassy cable - 03ROME4775

UNCLAS  ROME 004775 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DOL FOR ILAB/BRUMFIELD 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/WE, INR/EUC and DRL/IL 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, ELAB, IT, HUMAN RIGHTS 
SUBJECT: Immigration: Deputy Prime Minister Fini's Bold 
Stroke 
 
Ref: a) Milan 639; b) Rome 2948 
 
1. (SBU) Summary: National Alliance leader Gianfranco Fini's 
proposal to extend voting rights to legal immigrants has 
jolted Prime Minister Berlusconi's center-right coalition, 
set the chattering classes abuzz and intensified 
intracoalition squabbles.  Fini's gambit complicates 
Berlusconi's political life and the coalition's already less- 
than-smooth workings, but it endangers neither.  Despite the 
sharp elbows, competing agendas and flaring tempers, all the 
coalition members still see more advantage to being in 
government than out.  Regardless of whether his proposal 
survives a tortuous legislative process to emerge as law, 
Fini has already scored some important gains, throwing anti- 
immigrant Northern League leader Bossi off-balance; pulling 
his National Alliance party further from its fascist roots; 
and burnishing his own credentials within the center-right 
as Berlusconi's potential successor.   End Summary. 
 
Fini's Blast. 
----------------- 
 
2. (U) Fini picked an innocuous occasion -- an October 8 
address to an advisory body on economic and labor policy -- 
to launch his bombshell.  Italy should consider relaxing the 
tight quotas on legal immigration established by tough new 
immigration legislation (which Fini co-authored) last year, 
he declared.  Moreover, it was time to consider granting 
voting rights to some of Italy's 2.4 million legal 
immigrants, at least in local elections, Fini argued. 
 
3. (U)  Initial reaction to media reports of Fini's 
initiative was shocked silence, followed by the sound of 
jaws across the country hitting the floor.  Reaction within 
the coalition was mixed: the Union of Christian Democrats of 
the Center expressed its support; Bossi and his Northern 
League "praetorians" complained the loudest, ominously 
warning that if Fini insisted on pursuing his proposal, 
early elections were inevitable (comment: which is pretty 
much Bossi's reaction to anything he disagrees with).  An 
irritated Berlusconi noted the proposal was not included in 
the coalition's agreed platform and denied the clash of 
opinions signaled new trouble within the coalition. 
Opposition pols expressed their delight that Fini was 
softening his stance on immigration and pledged to support 
any draft legislation to codify his proposal.  Initial 
reaction from Fini's surprised colleagues within National 
Alliance was also mixed, with some prominent party 
conservatives dissenting. 
 
4. (U) Undeterred, Fini pressed ahead, announcing that AN's 
parliamentary group would begin drafting a constitutional 
amendment to modify voting eligibility requirements 
(although the opposition Democrats of the Left already have 
tabled similar legislation).  Bossi's rhetoric escalated as 
well, the Northern League leader alternately threatening to 
block any liberalization of immigration policy and 
immediately to resign.  Over the ensuing week, Berlusconi 
reportedly spent substantial time talking Bossi off his 
rhetorical ledge, reminding him that most of the League's 
"reformist" agenda, notably regional devolution, remained 
unfinished.  After a week of political drama, threats and 
recriminations, things quieted October 15, when Fini 
clarified that the constitutional amendment would be 
presented only by AN, not on behalf of the government, and 
Bossi declared "enough polemics.we have serious work to do." 
 
.had, and hit, many targets 
---------------------------------- 
 
5. (SBU) Fini's initiative, though surprising, clearly was 
not impulsive.  Rather, it appears calculated to advance 
both short- and longer-term.  Fini's aim -- successfully 
completed on most counts -- was to: 
 
-- warn Berlusconi not to take his, and AN's, support for 
granted.  Fini has been frustrated that AN priorities, 
whether in the budget or on broader reform proposals, 
consistently have taken a back seat to a convergence of 
Forza Italia-Northern League interests.  Fini was stung 
particularly by Berlusconi's criticism of him and his party 
after AN deputies' absence prompted a rare parliamentary 
defeat of a GOI bill.  Provisions within legislation to 
liberalize Italy's communications sector (including rules on 
media ownership that would have a direct impact on 
 
 
Berlusconi's business holdings) failed to garner enough 
votes in the Chamber and the entire bill was sent back to 
the Senate.  Looming in the near-future are the prospect of 
a post-EU presidency cabinet shuffle, which Fini wants and 
Berlusconi is resisting, and next year's elections for the 
European Parliament. 
 
-- throw Bossi off-balance.  After a summer in which 
Berlusconi refused to condemn (and sometimes condoned) the 
Northern League leader's liberal use of bombast and 
brinksmanship to force League-friendly changes to several 
government initiatives, Fini goaded Bossi to reveal his 
interests.  In backing away from his threat to resign or 
topple the government, Bossi was forced to acknowledge that 
the Northern League's objectives are better served within 
the coalition. 
 
-- demonstrate his strength within AN.  Despite the initial 
dissent from some elements of the party, members largely 
closed ranks behind Fini as he insisted on pursuing the 
initiative.  As a result, he has moved AN further toward the 
conservative mainstream (including, longer-term, membership 
in the center-right grouping within the European Parliament) 
and away from the intolerance of its fascist-era roots. 
 
-- reposition himself politically.  Fini clearly is looking 
ahead to the post-Berlusconi landscape.  Absent a natural 
successor within Forza Italia, many pundits agree that 
Berlusconi's successor as leader of the center-right will be 
either Fini or Chamber President Casini, a bona fide 
centrist.  Fini's newfound support for immigrant rights 
continues a personal makeover that includes reconciliation 
with Italy's Jewish community and public condemnation of 
Italian fascism's abuses. 
 
Comment 
------------ 
 
6. (SBU) Fini's initiative reverberated across the political 
landscape, but any cracks it exposed in the coalition's 
foundation won't topple this government.  His appeal is more 
interesting for the cracks it caused, or exposed, in 
Italians' evolving views about immigration.  The thinking 
and habits of a fairly homogeneous society that places a 
premium on tradition have been slow to catch up with the 
reality of Italy's growing immigrant population.  The draft 
constitutional amendment will take a long time to emerge 
from parliament, affording substantial opportunities for 
Italians of all political stripes to debate the relative 
costs and benefits of immigration for this rapidly aging 
society.  Parliamentarians' and politicos' rigid adherence 
to ideological conventions probably will strip that debate 
of much of its pragmatic value, but the end result still may 
be a step toward fuller integration of Italy's immigrant 
population.  In the meantime, Fini has jumped into the 
center of that conversation and, at least for now, out of 
Berlusconi's shadow. 
 
Countryman 
 
 
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 2003ROME04775 - Classification: UNCLASSIFIED