US embassy cable - 03COLOMBO1819

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 001819 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS; NSC FOR E. MILLARD 
 
E.O. 12958:   DECL: 10-20-13 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PINS, SOCI, MV, Maldives 
SUBJECT:  Maldivian President wins another five-year 
term in office 
 
Refs:  Colombo 1718, and previous 
 
(U) Classified by Bruce Lohof, Acting Deputy Chief of 
Mission.  Reasons 1.5 (b,d). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  Maldivian President Gayoom handily won 
reelection for a sixth term in a national referendum 
held on October 17.  In other local political 
developments, the government continues to investigate 
the causes of the rare outbreak of unrest last month. 
Although he won the referendum in a predictably easy 
manner, Gayoom's sixth term may be a challenging one 
given the recent bubbling up of discontent.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (U) GAYOOM WINS AGAIN:  Maldivian President Maumoon 
Abdul Gayoom easily won re-election to another five-year 
term in a national referendum held on October 17 (he has 
been in power since 1978). According to official figures 
released on October 20, the final count in the "yes/no" 
referendum was 90.28 percent in favor of Gayoom, with 
9.72 percent against.  Gayoom's victory in the 
referendum follows his selection by the People's Majlis 
(Parliament) in September as the country's lone 
presidential candidate.  His inauguration for a sixth 
term is set to take place in early November. 
 
3.  (SBU) By way of context, Gayoom's margin of victory 
was slightly lower than the 1998 election in which he 
won 90.9 percent of the vote.  In his previous elections 
(1993, 1988, 1983, 1978), he also won sizable majorities 
in the presidential referendums.  Interestingly, given 
the recent unrest there (see below), Gayoom suffered a 
nearly 12 percent drop in "yes" votes in the capital of 
Male'.  Voter turnout was reported at 77 percent, 
marginally higher than the 76.7 percent reported in the 
1998 election.  Over 113,000 people voted (out of a 
total population of roughly 270,000). 
 
4.  (SBU) GOVERNMENT PROBE INTO UNREST:  In other local 
political developments, the government continues to 
investigate the causes of the rare outbreak of unrest 
last month in Male' which was sparked by a police firing 
at a prison on a nearby island (see Reftels).  A 
Presidential Commission set up to investigate the 
September 19 prison disturbance gave a press briefing on 
October 16 reviewing its work thus far (there is another 
Commission investigating the September 20 riots on 
Male').  In the briefing, Abdul Sattar Moosa Didi, the 
head of the Commission, provided details on the death of 
an inmate at the prison, which set off a riot by the 
prisoners, and led to the police firing that left three 
other prisoners dead and several wounded.  On the basis 
of Didi's comments, the Commission seems to have 
tentatively concluded that the inmate in question died 
of unspecified mistreatment by prison guards.  Didi 
noted, for example, that Adam Mohamed, formerly a 
National Security Service captain at the prison, had 
been correctly held responsible for the incident and 
cashiered from police service.  Based on what Mission 
understands, up to twelve NSS personnel, including 
Mohamed, have been fired for their role in the prison 
disturbance.  Didi wrapped up by noting that the 
Commission's investigation would continue. 
 
5.  (C) RSO recently visited Male', and in comments 
providing further insight into the unrest, was told by 
Controller of Immigration and Emigration Ali Hussain 
Didi that Maldivians had been stunned by the police 
firings at the prison.  Given their long-standing 
cultural aversion to violence, some Maldivians had had a 
sharp, intense reaction to the NSS' use of force against 
the prisoners and had taken to the streets in protest. 
Didi said he thought the worst was over now, with most 
Maldivians accepting the government's claims that it was 
earnestly trying to get to the bottom of what happened. 
 
6.  (C) COMMENT:  Despite the recent unrest, Gayoom was 
widely expected to win the referendum and the results 
are already being paraded by the government as evidence 
of the depth of his public support.  As to the free and 
fair nature of the process itself, we do not think the 
process was "fair" given that only one candidate is 
allowed to seek a popular mandate and no political 
parties are allowed.  Conversely, the process -- when 
taken on its own merits -- seems to have been "free" 
enough in that we have not heard any substantiated 
reports of ballot stuffing or pressure on voters.  Given 
the recent bubbling up of discontent, our guess is that 
Gayoom's sixth term may be a challenging one as he deals 
with growing pressure from the public for a more open 
political system.  END COMMENT. 
 
7.  (U) Minimize considered. 
 
LUNSTEAD 
 
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SIPDIS 
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