US embassy cable - 03GUATEMALA2664

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GUATEMALA 002664 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, PINR, PINS, GT 
SUBJECT: ELECTION ROUND UP WITH THREE WEEKS TO GO 
 
 
1. (SBU) Summary: Polls continue to show GANA candidate 
Berger significantly ahead in voter preferences, followed by 
UNE's Colom and the FRG's Rios Montt in a dead heat for 
second place.  Some electoral experts believe the FRG will 
not make it into the second round, though poll results 
suggest that the FRG's core support base may be stronger than 
most give them credit for at around 20%.  Reports of Supreme 
Electoral Tribunal concerns over the potential for election 
day disturbances were exaggerated by the press.  Nonetheless, 
the TSE has asked for additional police protection for 
polling places that are historically hot spots.  Of 22 
alleged electoral related murders, only two are believed by 
international observers to be politically motivated.  OAS and 
EU election observers are blanketing the country, and expect 
to be up to 300 observers by election day.  In a meeting with 
the Ambassador, OAS EOM Chief Paniagua said he is meeting 
with the MOD to seek access to military bases to verify if 
payments to ex-PAC's are being made by FRG candidates.  End 
summary. 
 
 
WHO'S AHEAD 
----------- 
2. (U) An October CID-Gallup poll gives GANA candidate Oscar 
Berger a commanding lead in the first round election with 34% 
of the vote, compared to 18% for UNE's Alvaro Colom, 10% for 
FRG leader Efrain Rios Montt and 7% for PAN candidate Leonel 
Lopez Rodas.  The CID-Gallup poll does not list other months 
for comparison purposes, but is consistent with polls taken 
by other firms for the same period.  The October poll shows 
that in a second round between Berger and Colom, 47% of 
respondents would vote for Berger, and 30% for Colom.  In a 
second round between Berger and Rios Montt, 65% of 
respondents said they would vote for Berger, followed by 13% 
for Rios Montt. 
 
3. (SBU) At a recent meeting with the Ambassador, three 
electoral experts (not affiliated with any political party) 
concluded that the unbroken tendency of Guatemalan voters to 
throw out the party in power would be difficult for the 
ruling FRG to overcome in this election.  A sagging economy, 
serious corruption allegations, a deteriorating security 
situation and the continued absence of the state from many 
rural areas would all work against Rios Montt's candidacy. 
Two of them opined that the final round of the election would 
pit Berger against PAN's Leonal Lopez Rodas, and one that 
Berger would face off with UNE's Alvaro Colom (Embassy 
comment:  While Lopez Rodas has risen in the polls in recent 
months, he still remains far behind Colom and Rios Montt in 
all the polls. End comment).  Other observers have noted that 
Berger's health problems (he was operated on recently for 
prostate cancer) have had a negative impact on his candidacy. 
 
4. (SBU) Conventional wisdom in Guatemala is that the FRG and 
UNE are competing virtually equally for second place.  Most 
polls show the FRG gaining ground, though still in third 
place.  A recent VoxLatina poll of Guatemala City voters 
showed that 15.5% would vote for FRG candidate for Mayor of 
Guatemala City Luis Rabbe.  While that still puts him in a 
distant third place for mayor, it shows that support for the 
FRG in Guatemala City, widely viewed as hostile to the FRG, 
could exceed 15%.  If the FRG has 15% in Guatemala City, it 
is not inconceivable that its core support nationwide is 
closer to 20%. 
 
CONCERNS ABOUT ELECTION DAY DISTURBANCES 
---------------------------------------- 
5. (U) Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) President Oscar 
Bolanos told reporters on October 15 that the TSE fears 
confrontations in 205 municipalities where current mayors are 
running for re-election.  In an October 16 round-table 
discussion with the private sector, Bolanos clarified that 
the TSE does not have any reason to believe that the current 
election will be more violent than previous ones, and said 
that they expect public disturbances will occur in very few 
municipalities.  He noted that two of the blue-collar suburbs 
of Guatemala City (Chinautla and Palencia) historically had 
election day violence (after the poll results were known), 
and that in the 1999 the election had to be repeated in 
Chinautla because angry mobs burned the ballot boxes after 
their candidate for mayor lost.  He said that he had already 
spoken with the Minister of Government to request additional 
security on election day for the areas where violence is 
traditional, and OAS Election Observation Mission head 
Valentin Paniagua noted that the OAS will dedicate more 
observers to the municipalities where violence is 
traditionally common. 
 
6. (SBU) The murder on October 8 of two GANA members (a 
husband and wife) in Puerto San Jose again raised the specter 
of pre-election violence, but MINUGUA and the OAS have not 
determined that the murders were politically motivated.  Of 
the 22 allegations of election-related murders since the 
convocation of elections in May, MINUGUA and the OAS believe 
two were clearly politically motivated (though in both cases 
they were the acts of impassioned local party members, not 
part of a national strategy by the parties involved).  Most 
of the cases were clearly not politically motivated.  The OAS 
and MINUGUA continue to investigate the remaining cases. 
 
MOST OBSERVED ELECTION EVER 
--------------------------- 
7. (U) The OAS and EU election monitoring missions have 
opened their regional offices and are making their presence 
felt throughout the country.  Both missions expect to field 
150 international observers each on election day, in what 
will be Guatemala's most observed election since the 
restoration of democracy. 
 
OAS TO VERIFY PAYMENTS TO EX-CIVIL PATROL MEMBERS 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
8. (SBU) The GOG's recent decision to expand the number of 
former PAC's that would receive compensation for their 
war-time service was widely viewed as a ploy to seek their 
support for the FRG in the elections.  Large numbers of 
ex-PAC's that failed to receive compensation in the first 
tranche have been blocking FRG campaign rallies in different 
parts of the country and protesting against FRG candidate 
Rios Montt.  The controversial GOG decision to pay the former 
civil patrol members on military bases, where the public is 
not allowed, created fears that the FRG would use this to 
hide their political proselytism with the ex-PAC. 
Accusations have surfaced that FRG candidates are handing out 
the compensation payments.  In an October 17 meeting with the 
Ambassador, OAS Election Observation Chief Valentin Paniagua 
said that he would be meeting later that day with MOD General 
Robin Moran to request access to military bases on the days 
the payments are made to the PAC to observe if partisan 
political activities are taking place in violation of the 
electoral law. 
 
Comment: 
-------- 
9. (SBU) Last week's fear "du jour," that the FRG had rented 
all the buses in the country on election day, has subsided. 
Several individuals associated with the opposition have 
assured voters that public transportation will be available 
on election day.  This week's fear is that the FRG will put 
mobs on the streets on election day to discourage voters. 
The OAS and TSE have engaged with the Minister of Government 
on this issue and received assurances that the police will 
maintain order on election day.  The OAS believes that the 
large number of international observers will also discourage 
violence.  With 23 days left before the election, voter 
preferences have not changed, and tensions have diminished 
significantly from their high in late July.  Current 
expectations are for a normal electoral process. 
HAMILTON