US embassy cable - 03HALIFAX348

UNCLAS HALIFAX 000348 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR WHA/CAN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, CA, Conservative Party 
SUBJECT: PRELIMINARY REACTION TO PROPOSED MERGER OF CA AND TORY 
PARTIES:  TALK OF A CREDIBLE OPPOSITION FORCE AND A PROVINCIAL 
PREMIER 
 
1.  News of the proposed merger of the Canadian Alliance and 
Progressive Conservative Parties is getting mixed reaction 
throughout Canada's four Atlantic Provinces.  Most local 
representatives of the two parties appear optimistic that the 
tentative merger will actually work and will result in a new 
party capable of acting as an effective opposition to the 
governing Liberals.  Nonetheless, the predictions are that this 
merger process will be a long one and would not be finished in 
time before the next federal election.  Premier Lord's deputy 
communications director, Robert Batherson, told CG, visiting PAO 
and Montreal BPAO that he was optimistic about the new party on 
the federal level, but did not expect it to have an effect on 
Liberal dominance of federal politics.  From a provincial 
standpoint, he said, there would be little impact on Nova Scotia 
and other provinces.  In addition to the time factor, regional 
pundits are also emphasizing that the new party will have to 
find a way to deal with certain CA policies which have been a 
tough sell here in Atlantic Canada.  Chief among these are the 
party's goal of seeing reduced federal spending for such 
programs as regional development, so critical to economically 
disadvantaged areas like Atlantic Canada. 
 
2.  Also on the minds of Atlantic Canadians is the question of 
Bernard Lord, the current Tory premier of New Brunswick.  This 
time last year, the Quebec-born and bilingual Lord was under 
intense pressure to seek the leadership of the federal Tory 
party.  Lord declined the invitation principally because he had 
a provincial election to fight the next year.  Lord did in fact 
go to the polls in a June re-election bid, but barely held on to 
power.  With the leadership question re-emerging, the two 
schools of thought are that Premier Lord will want to bail out 
of his minority government situation and move to the federal 
stage; the other, that he will be under just as much pressure at 
home not to abandon his Tory party to face certain death at the 
hands of a highly spirited opposition. 
 
3.  Comment:  As this is just day two in the new CA-PC merger 
plans, most observers are asking for more time to study all the 
angles before coming up with a full analysis of the new look 
party and what it means for Atlantic Canada.  For now though the 
mood seems to be generally a cautious optimism that should the 
new party get its house in order, the country may see a 
formidable opposition to the governing Liberals.  END COMMENT 
 
 
HILL